TRAINER’S TRACE

[grand lodge]

Hi Alexander,

Congrats on a good post.

I would like to ask a few questions, if I may:

1. when compiling owner and trainer course stats, is this for current season only and do you break it down into categories, eg, hurdles, chases, nhf, 2yo, 3yo etc?

2. How do you arrive at a % on the rating+days+class line?

3. What is the formula for calculating the value figure?

Looking forward to your reply.

GL

[Alexander]

Hi, Maggsy & Grand Lodge
Thanks for your interest.
Re your queries:
Query 1) These Trainer stats are the previous 2 week period regardless of type of race.

Query 2) The % is arrived at by examing the number of “strongly bet” * runners in the period measured against the number of winners,
In the example below Haslam had only 1 strongly bet runner and was a winner (100%).

Query3) The value figure is in essence the highest % returned for any particular race. (where there are perhaps 3 or 4 strongly bet winners this will take priority over a single strongly bet winner for ranking purposes)
Because we are concerning ourselves with strongly bet runners, when considering a race it is wise to first examine which runners fit into this category. Some races will have a Trainer/s who fit the bill in the strongly bet category. They would be the general selection for that race. When non of the Trainers have good % amongst the strongly bet runners then it is worth taking a closer look at the highest % overall as a possible selection

* NB For a runner to qualify as strongly bet the following conditions must apply:-
5 runner or less odds must be 2/1 or less
6- 8 runners odds must be 3/1 or less
9-12 runners odds must be 7/2 or less
13 -16 runners odds must be 5/1 or less
17 -22 runners odds must be 7/1 or less

Breakdown of the information line:
4 Strabinios King 59 P C HASLAM ( 10 )-( 1 )-( 1 )-( 100 %) ~~ ( 3 )-( 2 )

In the above example No4 Strabinious King ran 59 days ago. Trainer was Haslam. He had 10 runners in the previous 2 weeks. One only strongly bet. This strongly bet runner won. Therefore 100% returned. Following the ~ there are a couple of informations regardng all wins and places. In the example there were 3 wins (regardless of odds) and there were 2 places.
The figures following the ~ do not figure in any calculations. They are for information only. Sometimes a Trianer will be doing well with places without having a decent win record. Again all this relates to the previous 2 week period only.

So, there you have it. Clear as mud I expect but at least I’ve had a go at breaking down what must seem a confusing set of figures.

Good luck

[grand lodge]

Hi Alexander, thanks for your reply.

I am still confused about certain details. Below, is your example that I copied from page 1:

13/9/06 (Wednesday) SANDOWN
3.35pm

Rating+Days+Class(67)-( 18 )-(Cl5)-(30%)
Unique rating figure (67) (achieved 18 days ago) (class 5) (resultant 30%)

How do you arrive at this percentage figure?

Trainer’sCrseRecord~(50)-(5)-(San)-(10%) [/b]
Current Course Record (50 runs) (5wins) (Sandown) (resultant 10%)

Is this last 14 days or season, and for all types of races/codes and is it only the strongly bet ones?

Owner’sCrseRecord~(1)-(1)-(San)-(100%)
Current Course Record (1 runs) (1win) (Sandown)(resultant100%)

Same question as above.

Can you give a working example of calculating the value figure?

Thanks again.

GL

[Alexander]

TRAINER’S TRACE [/color:2eise9mo]attempts to find Trainers, Jockeys and Runners who invariably do well when ÂÂ “strongly bet”* The betting market is arguably the single most important factor when seeking to find winners and this method identifies the good opportunities amongst the fancied runners in the betting markets.

There has been a number of changes to the original concept. This latest version attempts to further improve the performance of the system. The latest version can be seen from mid September 2006 onwards. Trainer’s Trace has proven itself spanning more than a 12 month. The system has fluctuated but persistently remained in profit throughout the period.

The example below explains the format. The bold type is the style which the information is laid out. Usually shortest four priced runners are given in any selected race. The example highlights just one such runner.
The italics are by way of further clarification.

13/9/06 (Wednesday) SANDOWN
3.35pm
7f.gd.sft.stks.cl3.(5r)
7furlongs.Soft going.Stakes race. Class 5 (5 runners)
R HANNON~(70)-(9)-(1)-(11%)
Trainer( 7 recent runs)( 9 strongly bet) ( 1 winner) (resultant 11%)
RYAN MOORE~(58 )-(13)-(4)-(31%)
Jockey ( 58 recent runs) (13 strongly bet) (4 wins) (resultant 31%) DUKE OF TUSCANY 2)–(3)-(1)-(1)-(100%)
Runner aged 2) (3 lifetime rus) (1 strongly bet) (1 win) (resultant 100%)
Rating+Days+Class(67 )-(18 )-(Cl5 )30%)
Unique rating figure (67) (achieved 18 days ago) (class 5) (resultant 30%)
Trainer’sCrseRecord~(50)-(5)-(San)-(10%)
Current Course Record (50 runs) (5wins) (Sandown) (resultant 10%)
Owner’sCrseRecord~(1)-(1)-(San)-(100%)
Current Course Record (1 runs) (1win) (Sandown)(resultant100%)
[b:2eise9mo]VALUE FIGURE:-[70] [/b:2eise9mo]
[i:2eise9mo]The Value Figure is system generated so there isn’t an arbitrary selection process.
The value figure is achieved by considering each of the six resultant %’s
The highest figure deemed to have the best chance for this particular race.
Selection or Lays are made only after considering the Value Figure.
In the example the system generated the Value Figure of [70]. [/i:2eise9mo]

NB above is an extract of 13/9/06, which you may or may not have been already been looking at. Although this was another updated version of an earlier method, I have actually yet again gone back to the drawing board to produce a simplified version. This latest version focusses entirely upon only the Trainer’s last 2 weeks runners. So in summing up; do not concern yourself with the mechanics of the earlier threads, but focus now upon the updated simplified version as explained in yesterday’s thread.
Good luck.

[grand lodge]

Thanks for the reply but I feel my questions are still unanswered.

Are you still using all the elements in the above post and, if so, can you explain the following:

1. Rating+Days+Class(67 )-(18 )-(Cl5 )30%)
Unique rating figure (67) (achieved 18 days ago) (class 5) (resultant 30%)

Where does the 30% come from?

2. Trainer’sCrseRecord~(50)-(5)-(San)-(10%)
Current Course Record (50 runs) (5wins) (Sandown) (resultant 10%)
Owner’sCrseRecord~(1)-(1)-(San)-(100%)
Current Course Record (1 runs) (1win) (Sandown)(resultant100%)

Are these last 14 days or season and all codes, regardless of today’s race?

3. How is the value figure of 70 arrived at, using the six percentages in the example? It’s obviously not an average sum or the highest of the six?

Hope you can help.

GL

[Alexander]

Monday 15/10/07
LINGFIELD 4.10pm

J H M GOSDEN ( 32 )-( 13 )-( 3 )-( 23 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 5 )-( 11 )
RICHARD HUGHES ( 40 )-( 15 )-( 5 )-( 33 %)
Wins+TrRuns+TrWins ( 7 )-( 0 )-( 0 )
DOUBLE DOORS 3 )-( 5 )-( 4 )-( 2 )-( 50 %)
Wins+Jo’Runs+Jo’Wins ( 2 )-( 1 )-( 0 )
Latest/Average/Expected ( 41 )-( 46 )-( 45 )-( 51 %)

OVERALL RATING ( 39 %)
_____________________________

MRS A J PERRETT ( 28 )-( 4 )-( 2 )-( 50 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 3 )-( 7 )
TED DURCAN ( 43 )-( 13 )-( 2 )-( 15 %)
Wins+TrRuns+TrWins ( 3 )-( 1 )-( 0 )
CHOCOLATE CARAMEL (USA) 5 )-( 18 )-( 7 )-( 2 )-( 29 %)
Wins+Jo’Runs+Jo’Wins ( 3 )-( 0 )-( 0 )
Latest/Average/Expected ( 38 )-( 36 )-( 45 )-( 40 %)

OVERALL RATING ( 33 %)
____________________________

G L MOORE ( 27 )-( 3 )-( 1 )-( 33 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 1 )-( 9 )
SIMON WHITWORTH ( 19 )-( 0 )-( 0 )-( 0 %)
Wins+TrRuns+TrWins ( 0 )-( 0 )-( 0 )
COLD TURKEY 7 )-( 55 )-( 18 )-( 6 )-( 33 %)
Wins+Jo’Runs+Jo’Wins ( 15 )-( 22 )-( 6 )
Latest/Average/Expected ( 73 )-( 64 )-( 45 )-( 71 %)

OVERALL RATING ( 34 %)
____________________________

J L DUNLOP ( 31 )-( 3 )-( 0 )-( 0 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 0 )-( 4 )
EDDIE AHERN ( 31 )-( 4 )-( 0 )-( 0 %)
Wins+TrRuns+TrWins ( 1 )-( 4 )-( 0 )
EVA SONEVA SO FAST (IRE) 5 )-( 23 )-( 9 )-( 1 )-( 11 %)
Wins+Jo’Runs+Jo’Wins ( 2 )-( 1 )-( 0 )
Latest/Average/Expected ( 24 )-( 35 )-( 45 )-( 39 %)

OVERALL RATING ( 13 %)
____________________________

I have devised this method to attempt to consider the strongly bet runners in each race and breakdown the various elements into a single “overall ratingâ€

[Alexander]

16/10/07 (Tues)
Hunt 4.30pm CHASE

D E CANTILLON ( 4 )-( 0 )-( 0 )-( 0 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 0 )-( 0 )
J A MCCARTHY ( 8 )-( 1 )-( 1 )-( 100 %)
Wins+TrRuns+TrWins ( 2 )-( 1 )-( 0 )
THAT LOOK 4 ( 14 )-( 3 )-( 2 )-( 67 %)
Wins+Jo’Runs+Jo’Wins ( 3 )-( 1 )-( 1 )
Latest/Average/Expected ( 47 )-( 47 )-( 41 )-( 57 %)

OVERALL RATING ( 56 %)
_____________________________

D E PIPE ( 25 )-( 10 )-( 2 )-( 20 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 2 )-( 4 )
TIMMY MURPHY ( 15 )-( 4 )-( 1 )-( 25 %)
Wins+TrRuns+TrWins ( 2 )-( 3 )-( 0 )
THIRTY FIVE BLACK (IRE) 6 ( 3 )-( 3 )-( 1 )-( 33 %)
Wins+Jo’Runs+Jo’Wins ( 1 )-( 3 )-( 1 )
Latest/Average/Expected ( 42 )-( 49 )-( 41 )-( 60 %)

OVERALL RATING ( 35 %)
____________________________

N A TWISTON-DAVIES ( 16 )-( 11 )-( 4 )-( 36 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 4 )-( 5 )
P J BRENNAN ( 18 )-( 12 )-( 2 )-( 17 %)
Wins+TrRuns+TrWins ( 2 )-( 12 )-( 2 )
NIKOLA (FR) 6 ( 12 )-( 2 )-( 1 )-( 50 %)
Wins+Jo’Runs+Jo’Wins ( 3 )-( 0 )-( 0 )
Latest/Average/Expected ( 35 )-( 34 )-( 41 )-( 41 %)

OVERALL RATING ( 36 %)
____________________________

MRS CAROLINE BAILEY ( 2 )-( 1 )-( 0 )-( 0 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 0 )-( 1 )
J A HUNTER ( 0 )-( 0 )-( 0 )-( 0 %)
Wins+TrRuns+TrWins ( 0 )-( 0 )-( 0 )
ARNOLD LAYNE (IRE) 8 ( 4 )-( 2 )-( 1 )-( 50 %)
Wins+Jo’Runs+Jo’Wins ( 0 )-( 0 )-( 0 )
Latest/Average/Expected ( 48 )-( 35 )-( 41 )-( 43 %)

OVERALL RATING ( 23 %)
____________________________

That Look would seem to have the best form already in the book.
Has good chase form which is more than can be said about the others.
Early as yet but Trainer does well with his small string of Chasers.
THAT LOOK is the selection
_____________________________________________________

[Alexander]

17/10/07 (Wednesday)
WETHERBY 3.15pm (Hurdle cl3)

G A SWINBANK ( 13 )-( 2 )-( 1 )-( 50 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 1 )-( 4 )
MR T GREENALL ( 3 )-( 0 )-( 0 )-( 0 %)
Wins+TrRuns+TrWins ( 0 )-( 0 )-( 0 )
SIR BOREAS HAWK 5 ( 5 )-( 4 )-( 3 )-( 75 %)
Wins+Jo’Runs+Jo’Wins ( 3 )-( 4 )-( 3 )
Latest/Average/Expected ( 54 )-( 54 )-( 60 )-( 45 %)
Tissue price 9/4
OVERALL RATING ( 42 %)
_____________________________

J J QUINN ( 18 )-( 2 )-( 0 )-( 0 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 1 )-( 2 )
DOUGIE COSTELLO ( 10 )-( 2 )-( 0 )-( 0 %)
Wins+TrRuns+TrWins ( 2 )-( 4 )-( 0 )
MASTER NIMBUS 7 ( 37 )-( 5 )-( 0 )-( 0 %)
Wins+Jo’Runs+Jo’Wins ( 6 )-( 11 )-( 3 )
Latest/Average/Expected ( 83 )-( 57 )-( 60 )-( 47 %)
Tissue price 5/2
OVERALL RATING ( 12 %)
____________________________

J HOWARD JOHNSON ( 12 )-( 5 )-( 3 )-( 60 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 5 )-( 1 )
DENIS O’REGAN ( 16 )-( 4 )-( 2 )-( 50 %)
Wins+TrRuns+TrWins ( 4 )-( 7 )-( 2 )
GRINGO 5 ( 24 )-( 11 )-( 5 )-( 45 %)
Wins+Jo’Runs+Jo’Wins ( 6 )-( 1 )-( 0 )
Latest/Average/Expected ( 51 )-( 63 )-( 60 )-( 53 %)
Tissue price 7/1
OVERALL RATING ( 52 %)
____________________________

N G RICHARDS ( 6 )-( 1 )-( 0 )-( 0 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 0 )-( 2 )
MISS R DAVIDSON ( 3 )-( 2 )-( 0 )-( 0 %)
Wins+TrRuns+TrWins ( 0 )-( 1 )-( 0 )
SAIF SAREEA 7 ( 47 )-( 15 )-( 5 )-( 33 %)
Wins+Jo’Runs+Jo’Wins ( 8 )-( 9 )-( 1 )
Latest/Average/Expected ( 56 )-( 66 )-( 60 )-( 55 %)
Tisue price 8/1
OVERALL RATING ( 22 %)
____________________________

8 declared runners here. On the face of it Gringo would seem
to be a fair EW prospect. There is however a serious doubt as
to the handicap mark for this one. 119 is a mark still perhaps
6lbs too high. Notwithstanding this negative there are some
strong ticks: the Trainer (63%), Jockey with (50%) and the
runner having a superb 11 times strongly bet, winning on 5
of these races. (45%). Master Nimbus has the best form rating
(83) achieved on latest outing but other indicators from Trainer,
Jockey etc do not inspire.

NO SELECTION.
___________________________________________________

[Alexander]

Pontefract 3.40pm (2Y’Olds)

R HANNON ( 71 )-( 6 )-( 1 )-( 17 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 1 )-( 12 )
DANE O’NEILL ( 34 )-( 4 )-( 1 )-( 25 %)
Wins+TrRuns+TrWins ( 3 )-( 3 )-( 0 )
LATIN LAD 2 ( 2 )-( 0 )-( 0 )-( 0 %)
Wins+Jo’Runs+Jo’Wins ( 0 )-( 0 )-( 0 )
Latest/Average/Expected ( 70 )-( 70 )-( 62 )-( 57 %)

OVERALL RATING ( 25 %)
_____________________________

C E BRITTAIN ( 12 )-( 3 )-( 0 )-( 0 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 0 )-( 5 )
SEB SANDERS ( 68 )-( 31 )-( 11 )-( 35 %)
Wins+TrRuns+TrWins ( 11 )-( 1 )-( 0 )
BAZERGAN (IRE) 2 ( 3 )-( 0 )-( 0 )-( 0 %)
Wins+Jo’Runs+Jo’Wins ( 0 )-( 0 )-( 0 )
Latest/Average/Expected ( 45 )-( 38 )-( 62 )-( 31 %)

OVERALL RATING ( 17 %)
____________________________

N A CALLAGHAN ( 7 )-( 2 )-( 1 )-( 50 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 1 )-( 0 )
JIMMY FORTUNE ( 48 )-( 15 )-( 4 )-( 27 %)
Wins+TrRuns+TrWins ( 5 )-( 1 )-( 0 )
LET US PREY 2 ( 5 )-( 1 )-( 1 )-( 100 %)
Wins+Jo’Runs+Jo’Wins ( 1 )-( 0 )-( 0 )
Latest/Average/Expected ( 69 )-( 84 )-( 62 )-( 69 %)

OVERALL RATING ( 61 %)
____________________________

M JOHNSTON ( 60 )-( 15 )-( 4 )-( 27 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 11 )-( 16 )
ROYSTON FFRENCH ( 41 )-( 5 )-( 1 )-( 20 %)
Wins+TrRuns+TrWins ( 1 )-( 15 )-( 1 )
NAOMH GEILEIS (USA) 2 ( 5 )-( 1 )-( 1 )-( 100 %)
Wins+Jo’Runs+Jo’Wins ( 1 )-( 0 )-( 0 )
Latest/Average/Expected ( 53 )-( 54 )-( 62 )-( 44 %)

OVERALL RATING ( 48 %)
____________________________

Let Us Prey is a son of that super sire Hawk Wing who
may hold the key here as he was a sensation at a mile on
good going. Let Us Prey could land a surprise here and last
out the mile.
Selection LET US PREY
_________________________________________________

[Alexander]

Perhaps there is a place for biorhythms; Perhaps not. The Jury is still out. Nevertheless, here are a few interesting outcomes from the Breeders Cup races:- both Dylan Thomas and the unfortunate George Washington, a week before the races yesterday were in a parlous state regarding their respective cycles. Quite frankly they couldn’t have been in a much lower phase. If we acknowledge that recovery from such a position takes a week or more then the outcomes were indeed predicatable. Isn’t hindsight wonderful.

For your interest below: I’ve indicated the various states of the cycles, [ rising or falling ie. R or F] for 7 days prior to and for race date. There is also a fomula to assign a rating to the particular combined states on any given day. Rising cycles are assigned a higher value than falling cycles etc. However, it is not so much the rating that is critical, more the general movement in or out of phases from the previous period. The period shown here is up to 7 days before the race in question.

Dylan Thomas
20 October 2007 [ F F F 21 ]
21 October 2007 [ F F R 31 ]
22 October 2007 [ F F R 29 ]
23 October 2007 [ F F R 28 ]
24 October 2007 [ F R R 40 ]
25 October 2007 [ F R R 37 ]
26 October 2007 [ F R R 39 ]
27 October 2007 [ F R R 36 ]

George Washington
20 October 2007 [ F F F 16 ]
21 October 2007 [ F F F 15 ]
22 October 2007 [ R F F 28 ]
23 October 2007 [ R F F 28 ]
24 October 2007 [ R F F 27 ]
25 October 2007 [ R F F 26 ]
26 October 2007 [ R F F 22 ]
27 October 2007 [ R R F 31 ]

___________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________

AINTREE SUNDAY 2.40pm

Kauto Star
18 October 2007 [ F R R 35 ]
19 October 2007 [ F R R 23 ]
20 October 2007 [ F R R 10 ]
21 October 2007 [ F R R 0 ]
22 October 2007 [ F R R 7 ]
23 October 2007 [ F R R 19 ]
24 October 2007 [ F R R 30 ]
25 October 2007 [ F R R 34 ]
26 October 2007 [ R R R 52 ]
27 October 2007 [ R R R 52 ]
28 October 2007 [ R R R 52 ]
Right at the top of the phase !
___________________________________
Exotic dancer
18 October 2007 [ R F F 16 ]
19 October 2007 [ R F F 9 ]
20 October 2007 [ R F F 19 ]
21 October 2007 [ R F F 24 ]
22 October 2007 [ R F F 30 ]
23 October 2007 [ R F R 44 ]
24 October 2007 [ R R R 56 ]
25 October 2007 [ R R R 56 ]
26 October 2007 [ F R R 48 ]
27 October 2007 [ F R R 42 ]
28 October 2007 [ F R R 35 ]
Mid phase, should run to form
____________________________________
Monet’s Garden
18 October 2007 [ F F F 14 ]
19 October 2007 [ F F F 19 ]
20 October 2007 [ F F F 21 ]
21 October 2007 [ R F R 46 ]
22 October 2007 [ R F R 48 ]
23 October 2007 [ R F R 48 ]
24 October 2007 [ R R R 58 ]
25 October 2007 [ R R R 50 ]
26 October 2007 [ R R R 44 ]
27 October 2007 [ R R R 28 ]
28 October 2007 [ R R R 22 ]
Has not moved away from poor phase recently !
___________________________________
Ashley Brook
18 October 2007 [ R R R 44 ]
19 October 2007 [ R R R 28 ]
20 October 2007 [ R R R 22 ]
21 October 2007 [ R R R 22 ]
22 October 2007 [ R R R 24 ]
23 October 2007 [ R R R 22 ]
24 October 2007 [ R R R 32 ]
25 October 2007 [ R R R 36 ]
26 October 2007 [ F R R 36 ]
27 October 2007 [ F R R 38 ]
28 October 2007 [ F R R 37 ]
Mid phase, should run to form.
____________________________________
Le Volfoni
18 October 2007 [ R F F 11 ]
19 October 2007 [ R F F 18 ]
20 October 2007 [ R F F 24 ]
21 October 2007 [ R F F 27 ]
22 October 2007 [ R F F 30 ]
23 October 2007 [ F F F 24 ]
24 October 2007 [ F F F 24 ]
25 October 2007 [ F R R 45 ]
26 October 2007 [ F R R 41 ]
27 October 2007 [ F R R 40 ]
28 October 2007 [ F R R 38 ]
Still hovering in poor phase.
___________________________________
___________________________________

[Alexander]

31/10/07 Huntingdon 3.10pm 3m Chase cl3

MISS E C LAVELLE ( 7 )-( 0 )-( 0 )-( 0 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 0 )-( 1 )
BARRY FENTON ( 11 )-( 0 )-( 0 )-( 0 %)
Wins+TrRuns+TrWins ( 0 )-( 7 )-( 0 )
OTANTIQUE (FR) 5 ( 7 )-( 2 )-( 1 )-( 50 %)
Wins+Jo’Runs+Jo’Wins ( 2 )-( 6 )-( 2 )
Latest/Average/Expected ( 60 )-( 42 )-( 39 )-( 54 %)

OVERALL RATING ( 26 %)
_____________________________

P BOWEN ( 28 )-( 5 )-( 1 )-( 20 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 4 )-( 4 )
PADDY MERRIGAN ( 13 )-( 0 )-( 0 )-( 0 %)
Wins+TrRuns+TrWins ( 2 )-( 10 )-( 0 )
PROFESSOR HEGARTY (IRE) 7 ( 15 )-( 7 )-( 0 )-( 0 %)
Wins+Jo’Runs+Jo’Wins ( 2 )-( 2 )-( 1 )
Latest/Average/Expected ( 55 )-( 48 )-( 39 )-( 61 %)

OVERALL RATING ( 20 %)
____________________________

JONJO O’NEILL ( 51 )-( 21 )-( 7 )-( 33 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 12 )-( 11 )
A P MCCOY ( 47 )-( 29 )-( 5 )-( 17 %)
Wins+TrRuns+TrWins ( 8 )-( 0 )-( 0 )
NEW TIME (IRE) 8 ( 14 )-( 5 )-( 2 )-( 40 %)
Wins+Jo’Runs+Jo’Wins ( 4 )-( 8 )-( 3 )
Latest/Average/Expected ( 36 )-( 24 )-( 39 )-( 31 %)

OVERALL RATING ( 30 %)
____________________________

B G POWELL ( 36 )-( 4 )-( 0 )-( 0 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 1 )-( 7 )
S P JONES ( 21 )-( 3 )-( 0 )-( 0 %)
Wins+TrRuns+TrWins ( 0 )-( 13 )-( 0 )
MANDINGO CHIEF (IRE) 8 ( 38 )-( 14 )-( 3 )-( 21 %)
Wins+Jo’Runs+Jo’Wins ( 3 )-( 7 )-( 0 )
Latest/Average/Expected ( 46 )-( 42 )-( 39 )-( 54 %)

OVERALL RATING ( 19 %)
____________________________

Selection NEW TIME
______________________________

[Alexander]

TrainersTrace seeks to identify the Trainer having market fancied runners who are likely to be able to perform well.

Its the contention that well bet runners are more important to analyse than those allowed to go off at unfancied odds
Well bet runners are classed as qualifiers fitting the following criteria:
5 runners or less, odds must be 2/1 or less
6 to 8 runners, odds must be 3/1 or less
9 to 12 runners, odds must be 7/2 or less
13 to 16 runners, odds must be 5/1 or less
17 runners upwards, odds must be 7/1 or less.
The Trainers current form ie. Two week period is broken down to identify the Trainer who does well with his/her well bet charges.
The format is given as in the following example:-

Line 1,Trainer R Hannon
Line 2, Runners this period, Qualifiers ie those well bet,plus, Winners from the qualifiers,plus, Qualifiers & wins resultant %.
Line 3, All winners regardless of being well bet, plus, all places regardless of odds.
Line 4, Average race value for qualifiers only, plus, average race value of races won when qualifiers.

Those runners fitting the well bet criteria are identied as qualifiers. Winners from these qualifiers are shown as percentage:
Trainers returning good win percentages with their well bet are obviously good candidates for a repeat performances
Line 1 displays the Trainer in question.
Line 2 of the example displays the total no of runs, qualifiers, wins, and resulting %.
Line 3 of the example displays all wins and all places for the runners in question.
Line 4 of the example displays the average value of qualifying races and the average win value.

It is possible examine a meeting and identify those Trainers with anticipated well bet runners.
Each of these Trainers is given as in the format described above.

Format that will be used for each Trainer;

R HANNON
Runs+Qual+Win=% ( 86 )-( 12 )-( 2 )-( 17 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 7 )-( 17 )
AvrQual£+AvrWins£ ( 15 K )-( 54 K )
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Tuesday 21/10/08 Meeting analyses to follow later

[Alexander]

YARMOUTH Tuesday 21-10-08
Preview: Twelve trainers have been identified as having betting forecast “well bet” runners tomorrow. I’ve listed these with the best performing top 3 listed in order. The others are in no particular order.
___________________

SAEED BIN SUROOR
Runs+Qual+Win=% ( 30 )-( 15 )-( 9 )-( 60 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 14 )-( 10 )
AvrQual£+AvrWins£ ( 6 K )-( 9K)
2.20 MEZENAH looks solid. Bin Suroor’s record is quite outstanding at present. 15 qualifiers with 9 qualification wins, returns 60%. This race is worth 3.5K and with the average win at 9K the stable will know the strengths necessary for this grade.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
J H M GOSDEN
Runs+Qual+Win=% ( 37 )-( 11 )-( 5 )-( 45 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 10 )-( 7 )
AvrQual£+AvrWins£ ( 5 K )-( 5 K )
3.50 MAYAALAH is the likely best supported of Gosden’s runners. John at present has an excellent record with 11 qualifiers and 5 qualifying wins to return 45%. Impressive figures !. The value of this race is 3.5K and as can be noted this figure is no threat to the Trainer who has an average of 5K both for qualifying races and win races. The stable will know their strengths here.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
ANDREW TURNELL
Runs+Qual+Win=% ( 11 )-( 1 )-( 1 )-( 100 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 1 )-( 4 )
AvrQual£+AvrWins£ ( 3 K )-( 3 K )
5.20pm INTERACTIVE does not on the bare facts have the same appeal as the other selections. However, Andrew is shrewd and when the money is down invariably does well. Current form shows 11 runs with one qualifier and a winner ! The return % is therefore 100% (note small sample).
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
G L MOORE
Runs+Qual+Win=% ( 30 )-( 4 )-( 1 )-( 25 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 5 )-( 7 )
AvrQual£+AvrWins£ ( 3 K )-( 1 K )
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
M H TOMPKINS
Runs+Qual+Win=% ( 29 )-( 1 )-( 0 )-( 0 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 2 )-( 3 )
AvrQual£+AvrWins£ ( #VALUE! K )-( #DIV/0! K )
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
M JOHNSTON
Runs+Qual+Win=% ( 69 )-( 13 )-( 3 )-( 23 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 13 )-( 10 )
AvrQual£+AvrWins£ ( 3 K )-( 2 K )
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

RAE GUEST
Runs+Qual+Win=% ( 7 )-( 1 )-( 0 )-( 0 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 0 )-( 1 )
AvrQual£+AvrWins£ ( 5 K )-( #DIV/0! K )
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
M R CHANNON
Runs+Qual+Win=% ( 53 )-( 3 )-( 0 )-( 0 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 3 )-( 15 )
AvrQual£+AvrWins£ ( 3 K )-( #DIV/0! K )
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
C F WALL
Runs+Qual+Win=% ( 13 )-( 4 )-( 0 )-( 0 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 0 )-( 1 )
AvrQual£+AvrWins£ ( 3 K )-( #DIV/0! K )
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

M BOTTI
Runs+Qual+Win=% ( 16 )-( 1 )-( 0 )-( 0 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 0 )-( 4 )
AvrQual£+AvrWins£ ( 8 K )-( #DIV/0! K )
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
S C WILLIAMS
Runs+Qual+Win=% ( 13 )-( 1 )-( 0 )-( 0 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 1 )-( 2 )
AvrQual£+AvrWins£ ( 2 K )-( #DIV/0! K )
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
J PEARCE
Runs+Qual+Win=% ( 18 )-( 1 )-( 0 )-( 0 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 1 )-( 1 )
AvrQual£+AvrWins£ ( 2 K )-( #DIV/0! K )
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

OUTCOME[b:6cfgh878] -3pts[/color:6cfgh878][/b:6cfgh878]

[Alexander]

Bath Wed 22/10/08
A host of Trainers with forecasted “well bet” runners on this card with eigth races. Channon, Hannon and Stoute are Trainers that are currently out of form with their well bet runners. Stoute in particular has been in the doldrums. He has had 30 runners, 10 have been “well bet” but without a win from this set.

J H M GOSDEN
Runs+Qual+Win=% ( 36 )-( 11 )-( 5 )-( 45 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 10 )-( 8 )
AvrQual£+AvrWins£ ( 4 K )-( 5 K )
4.00pm SURREALISM is the likely Gosden 1st choice. Although Sharki lurks. (Similar two entries at Yarmouth yesterday with the outsider winning from this stable). Also, note Simcock’s runner Ainia who has claims.
Gosden has the best current form as per Trainer’s Trace stats at Bath today with 45%.
[b:3cxson4e]WON 6/4[/color:3cxson4e][/b:3cxson4e]
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
D M SIMCOCK
Runs+Qual+Win=% ( 15 )-( 3 )-( 1 )-( 33 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 2 )-( 3 )
AvrQual£+AvrWins£ ( 4 K )-( 7 K )
4.00pm AINIA is unfortunate to have to meet the Gosden runners in this race. Nevertheless, this Trainer has a fair record with the added plus of the average value winning races are 7K. Todays race is only 2.7K so the stable will have a handle on the strengths of the opposition.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
S PARR
Runs+Qual+Win=% ( 19 )-( 3 )-( 1 )-( 33 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 2 )-( 0 )
AvrQual£+AvrWins£ ( 6 K )-( 7 K )
3.30pm FAST FREDDIE belongs to the Parr stable who is not generally viewed as fashionable. However, with 19 runs in previous 2 weeks there have only been only 3 “well bet” runners with one of these winning. 33% is therefore returned. The average race qualifiers and wins have been much higher standard than todays 1.9K.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
M P TREGONING
Runs+Qual+Win=% ( 19 )-( 7 )-( 1 )-( 14 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 2 )-( 4 )
AvrQual£+AvrWins£ ( 12 K )-( 5 K )
4.30 RUTBA is an interesting selection. The 14% win would not normally command our attention. However, the average qualifiers are high (12K) and the average win qualifiers are also higher than the norm (5K). Todays race is valued at 2.9K giving encouragement that the stable will be well placed to gauge the strengths of their own and opposition.
WON 3/1[/color:3cxson4e]
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
P WINKWORTH
Runs+Qual+Win=% ( 11 )-( 3 )-( 1 )-( 33 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 4 )-( 0 )
AvrQual£+AvrWins£ ( 2 K )-( 2 K )
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
H CANDY
Runs+Qual+Win=% ( 13 )-( 3 )-( 1 )-( 33 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 4 )-( 3 )
AvrQual£+AvrWins£ ( 3 K )-( 3 K )
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

M R CHANNON
Runs+Qual+Win=% ( 48 )-( 2 )-( 0 )-( 0 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 3 )-( 12 )
AvrQual£+AvrWins£ ( 2 K )-( #DIV/0! K )
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
R HANNON
Runs+Qual+Win=% ( 77 )-( 11 )-( 0 )-( 0 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 5 )-( 12 )
AvrQual£+AvrWins£ ( 12 K )-( #DIV/0! K )
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SIR MICHAEL STOUTE
Runs+Qual+Win=% ( 30 )-( 10 )-( 0 )-( 0 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 3 )-( 10 )
AvrQual£+AvrWins£ ( 11 K )-( #DIV/0! K )
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
C R EGERTON
Runs+Qual+Win=% ( 9 )-( 1 )-( 0 )-( 0 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 1 )-( 1 )
AvrQual£+AvrWins£ ( 3 K )-( #DIV/0! K )
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
B J MEEHAN
Runs+Qual+Win=% ( 52 )-( 11 )-( 1 )-( 9 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 3 )-( 10 )
AvrQual£+AvrWins£ ( 6 K )-( 5 K )
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
D H BROWN
Runs+Qual+Win=% ( 2 )-( 1 )-( 0 )-( 0 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 0 )-( 0 )
AvrQual£+AvrWins£ ( 0 K )-( #DIV/0! K )
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
R J HODGES
Runs+Qual+Win=% ( 17 )-( 1 )-( 0 )-( 0 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 0 )-( 2 )
AvrQual£+AvrWins£ ( 1 K )-( #DIV/0! K )
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
M L W BELL
Runs+Qual+Win=% ( 29 )-( 6 )-( 1 )-( 17 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 1 )-( 12 )
AvrQual£+AvrWins£ ( 5 K )-( 5 K )
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
B ELLISON
Runs+Qual+Win=% ( 20 )-( 2 )-( 0 )-( 0 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 0 )-( 5 )
AvrQual£+AvrWins£ ( 6 K )-( #DIV/0! K )
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Today +2.5pts[/color:3cxson4e] TOTAL -0.5pts[/color:3cxson4e]
__________________________________________________________

[Alexander]

Brighton Thurs 23/10/08
Preview; Only a few Trainers here with reasonably good “well bet” records from their current form. Trainer Moore has 5 good entries however, the average value of the qualification wins is a lowly 2K. This figure does not inspire confidence for todays races which are somewhat higher than that achieved in the current period.

J H M GOSDEN
Runs+Qual+Win=% ( 38 )-( 13 )-( 6 )-( 46 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 11 )-( 9 )
AvrQual£+AvrWins£ ( 4 K )-( 5 K )
3.35 HEADLINE ACT is the Gosden single representative here. R Havlin has the ride for the first time and is also his only engagement here. John’s record remains very sound with 46% (achieved via 13 qualifiers and 6 qualifying wins). The average value achieved from these qualifier well bet records show that the win average is 5K. This Brighton race carries a value of 5.5K. Trainer should have a good handle on the capabilities of the selection for this value race.
WON 10/11[/color:2euv0jle]
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
G L MOORE
Runs+Qual+Win=% ( 37 )-( 5 )-( 2 )-( 40 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 6 )-( 8 )
AvrQual£+AvrWins£ ( 3 K )-( 2 K )
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
M JOHNSTON
Runs+Qual+Win=% ( 60 )-( 10 )-( 1 )-( 10 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 8 )-( 10 )
AvrQual£+AvrWins£ ( 4 K )-( 2 K )
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
J JAY
Runs+Qual+Win=% ( 5 )-( 1 )-( 1 )-( 100 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 2 )-( 0 )
AvrQual£+AvrWins£ ( 3 K )-( 3 K )
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
S DONOHOE
Runs+Qual+Win=% ( 5 )-( 1 )-( 1 )-( 100 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 1 )-( 1 )
AvrQual£+AvrWins£ ( 4 K )-( 4 K )
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
J L SPEARING
Runs+Qual+Win=% ( 9 )-( 1 )-( 0 )-( 0 %)
AllWins+Allplaces ( 0 )-( 3 )
AvrQual£+AvrWins£ ( 3 K )-( #DIV/0! K )
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Today +0.9 Pts[/color:2euv0jle] TOTAL +0.4PTS[/color:2euv0jle]

[davidbrady]

Hi Alex

Good to see you back on this section

I see from this time last year you posted up some biorythyms for the Breeders Cup ’07 together with an unusually dismissive phrase regarding your thoughts on its usefulness – have you abandoned biorythyms altogether or is it an ongoing work-in-progress

[Alexander]

Hi Dave
I hope the PM came through ok re the Biorythms
I’ll be laying Ravens Pass in the Breeders.

These figures may not be too apparent but they mean that Ravens Pass is right in a trough regarding the cycles of well being. Due now to remain in a poor or neutral state.

25-Oct-08 [ F[/color:1s4r5df3] R[/color:1s4r5df3] F[/color:1s4r5df3] -27% ]

The Bios were off beam today !!
____________________________________________________________

[Author]

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