Trainer Statistics

[Lonesilver]

The well known Victorian Hayes stable trained an official 150/1 winner at Flemington by the name of Makram, a former UK runner. I suspect some readers of this may utter some expletives if they ever backed this horse in days of yore!
On the basis of the price the ROI (Return On Investment) on the Hayes stable will show astronomical returns for quite sometime and this is where the statistics used which calculate every runner from a stable are so misleading.
A far better way of calculating the overall ability of a trainer is to just list their horses at 4/1 and less as these are the horses that should be winning fairly consistently. ALmost six years ago I started a similar study which highlighted how abysmal some better known trainers in Australia are mathematically and how surprisingly good others you thought were passable really are.
For a number of reasons I now only bother with horses in this study at 3/1 and less and then only at Melbourne tracks so have become some sort of a specialist but that’s another story.
I would imagine many, many UK bettors would follow certain trainers but like me have deduced some stats wise are very difficult to show a profit on.

[Venture to Cognac]

Good stuff Silver, completely agree.

Main yard I followed in recent years over here, in the last ten+ years, has been Sandy Thomson. It’s went very well, but your point about the SP of 4’s and above is the key thing. If I just bet blind, I reckon I’d be showing a serious loss, so have got to give myself a basement price, and go above that.

Had similar approach with John Ryan in Ireland and Jim Goldie. Definitely track the yards, but even without the stats, I suspect betting them blind would show really poor returns

[Lonesilver]

Thanks for the reply Mr Cognac!
Yes, following them blindly even at 4/1 and less will lead to a certain loss but as I have found some due diligence around form can turn a small loss into a profit. If you have 5 trainers showing a profit of 1.5% over 100 runs individually at say $20 per bet that’s only $30 profit on an individual trainer however adding the five together moneywise it is +$150. The maths purist says it is still only 1.5% but your wallet says +7.5 units!

I don’t know your current figures but copies I have of your “Racing Post” from years ago had a column listing trainers who travelled long distances. Is that still a column anywhere?

[Gingertipster]

I don’t really study a trainer’s overall strike rates, Lonesilver. But I do take notice if a trainer is particularly good at a particular time of year. Ditto for if a horse comes to form at the same time each year.
I also use my own “trainer form ratings”. Trainers that are now in form and trainers out of form. For a trainer without many runners I may need to go back several weeks to see what sort of form they’re in. Some bigger yards less than a week’s form.
Like you with your “4/1 and less” to find trainers in or out of form imo it is all about market expectation… And it’s not only about looking at winners either. I look for placed efforts too and how far they were beaten. Any 33/1 shot who’s got to within a few lengths of the winner has imo run well… Whereas a long odds-on length second probably not.

Right now our Champion Jumps trainer Nicky Henderson who usually has an outstanding strike rate is imo in poor form. Of his last 8 runners 6 have been pulled up and only two of those at double figure prices.

However, it is not that a trainer is definitely in or out of form – wins and poor runs will sometimes naturally come in patches. It’s just that a sequence or good stats is LIKELY to mean the trainer is in good form and a sequence of poor stats is LIKELY to mean the trainer is in poor form. Just as a couple of poor runs on soft ground might be a coincidence but just means it is LIKELY not to act on a soft surface.

I seldom make a horse from an out of form trainer to be a good / value bet and if I do think it is value I’ won’t be making it the main bet. Whereas I often back horses from trainers in form. That said, it is something better known amongst punters now than it was 20 years ago, so not as profitable as it once was.

Value Is Everything

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