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What’s everyone thoughts on trainer form going into the festival , to my eyes none of the big guns are scorching hot ( Elliott did have a good Sat ) Mullins will no doubt have a good week but but bar the GC he has work to win any of the other big races , looking at his stats he’s went to Cheltenham in better form. HDB has had a season to forget and while he’s had winners recently I’ve no real confidence he’ll set the week alight , could be a chance for others to take the limelight , this is a big week for Skelton and he’ll have winners , another who looks like he will have a strong week is Cromwell , is there any other trainers who may have a good week ( I’ve not mentioned Henderson but obv he should have winners )
I know Bobby is a Banbridge fan ( lol and unlike the yard is in form ) I just can’t have him for the GC , he needs everything inc ground to be spot on , he also ran a horror in the Ryanair last year , I’ve no Obrien horses covered
I don’t believe Banbridge will stay but at least it looks like he will finally get his ground at Cheltenham.
Regarding trainer form, the big guns are saving their best horses for Cheltenham so win success may be lower leading up to it than usual in some cases for this reason.
As long as the horses are properly placed then the horses should be winning , there’s little doubt most of the big Irish yards esp HDB went to the festival in better form last year
Doesn’t bother me at all. I think it’s human nature that trainer’s put more time into their better horses and for most of them, this will have been the plan from a long way out, if not for the entire season.
A trainer’s horses can be expected to run in the grade they’re expected to do well in. So it’s not a case of the trainer’s best horses doing better. There is no logical reason for that to be the case… And just because this has “been the plan from a long way out” does not mean the horse is immune to the viruses lesser stable companions have… And if the trainer’s horses are generally in good condition it means even one that’s “been the plan” has an even bigger chance. When I used to go racing it was noticeable how trainers in form had shiny coats and generally ran well, while those out of form were often dull and sometimes acted dull too.
I do my own Trainer In And Out Of Form Ratings which imo is a major part of my edge. Not done on winners alone, more about what was expected judged by SP and lengths beaten. Neither do I have a particular time period to judge it. Sometimes it will be three weeks, sometimes just a couple of days. Otherwise, if judged on too long a period a trainer on a sequence of 10 good runs might not be treated as “in good form” if prior to that he was in poor form… Which works the opposite way around too.
However, I have noticed over the years how certain trainers often go into Cheltenham week not in particularly good form and then are suddenly in full stride. Something they do that others don’t?
eg Mullins, Elliott and De Bromhead… And it’s the same this year. Mullins has had a question mark over him for March… But has now won 5 of the last 6 races he’s had runners in, including a 20/1 shot. Going from a 4 to 9/10 in a couple of days. My ratings has De Bromhead going into this Festival in better form than is often the case. Currently 8 out of 10. That said, he doesn’t have the fire power of some years and no stand outs. However, I do expect them to generally outrun their odds. Have backed his Workahead in the first, along with Elliott’s Romeo Coolio and saved on Mullins’ Kopek. (Elliott is on 7). Elliott may not look especially good on wins to runs, but they’ve mostly been running how they’re expected to. ie Much better once cutting out the long shots.
My ratings go from:*** (10 out of 10) Outstanding – rarely reached.
** (9) excellent
* (8) very good
*/ (7) good
// (6) neither good nor bad
/, (5) probably neither good nor bad
/ (4) slightly suspect
-/ (3) bit worrying
– (2) very worrying
X (1) don’t touch it!Majority of my “main bets” are on trainers I consider in good form. Only very rarely having a main bet on a trainer with a rating of below 5.
Value Is EverythingA shame that smaller trainers like Scott, Mulholland, Lavelle, Hobbs & White and so on have shown decent form in the past 14 days, yet have almost no live chances during the week.
It pains me to read that Hobbs is now regarded as a ‘small trainer’, even though it’s true. He was up there with the best when I first got back into racing and was Mikes hero…he always backed his horses. How times have changed.
Only two entries for them Moe, one in the Coral Cup and one in the Pertemps Final. Twenty years ago he would provide Richard Johnson with some decent rides at a Cheltenham Festival.
“A shame that smaller trainers like Scott, Mulholland, Lavelle, Hobbs & White and so on have shown decent form in the past 14 days, yet have almost no live chances during the week.”
Well done to Jeremy Scott, but despite the form, I didn’t see that coming.
HDLG, I really like taking my chances in small fields (like El Fabiolo last year at 2/9 where I only had the FC) against such shorties, but I never thought that the Elite Hurdle might provide a CH 1-2….. with the very consistent Winter Fog finishing third again.
….. Sorry no excuses … One a serious note not a great start for HDB , the one in the first ran a shocker , been a horror season for Rachel to
eg Mullins, Elliott and De Bromhead… And it’s the same this year. Mullins has had a question mark over him for March… But has now won 5 of the last 6 races he’s had runners in, including a 20/1 shot. Going from a 4 to 9/10 in a couple of days. My ratings has De Bromhead going into this Festival in better form than is often the case. Currently 8 out of 10. That said, he doesn’t have the fire power of some years and no stand outs. However, I do expect them to generally outrun their odds. Have backed his Workahead in the first, along with Elliott’s Romeo Coolio and saved on Mullins’ Kopek. (Elliott is on 7). Elliott may not look especially good on wins to runs, but they’ve mostly been running how they’re expected to. ie Much better once cutting out the long shots.
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