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If RTB can recapture his 2007 form he’d be a threat, but his last 4 runs have been disastrous, only 1lb higher since his last win though. Could tank along nicely in a prominent position, odds are huge.
Takeroc is well treated but probably wants fast ground, but PN is hopeful.
Oldrik probably isn’t good enough, but his 2nd to Zabeel Palace at Ascot was encouraging, bit too in and out for me.
Would take a lot for Blue Bajan too win but is 4lb lower than his last hurdles run. Is top class on his day and a good eachway bet.
However I’m more interested in the progressive types in the field, notably Manyriverstocross, Get Me Out Of Here, Frontier Dancer and Harry Tricker.
FD probably isn’t that well treated but has scope for improvement, didn’t run too well behind Mamlook last time but is fit and the slightly less testing ground will suit.
Manyrivers is hard to weigh up. Doesn’t look that well handicapped and his runs over obstacles have been confined to soft ground, but has good ground form in his flat campaign. Can improve and King is a force.
GMMOOH doesn’t know what defeat is yet, but this is a completely different kettle of fish to what he has faced so far. Has course form which is a plus and could still be anything. Saw him win comfortably at Ffos Las and still looked green that day so has lots of improvement in him. Good chance if not too bothered by the mammoth field.
Harry Tricker is a proven quantity in this kind of race having contested the Greatwood. Only concern he has shot up in the handicap but still has a good chance in this context seeing as the form in his last race looks rock solid (KK proven he is top class as has Medermit).
Bets for me are: Ring The Boss and Blue Bajan (small ew), GMOOH and Harry Tricker for the win. Good race in store.
2 horses stand out for me here,
Ronaldo des mottes
at 8/1 and
Spirit River
at 6/1,the latter impressed me as a horse of untapped potential at Cheltenham last time under a huge weight,i felt his run at Newbury before that was an educational one, to ready him for this,the big occassion! Mr Henderson knows what it takes to win the Tote Gold Trophy and Spirit river looks better than a handicapper to my eye!
Whats the going like at Newbury? Blue Bajan needs good ground; thought I might have an ew on Songe if he runs if it’s g/s.
What do we all think on the e/w market?
Im wondering, who has a better e/w chance, Numide or Fushe Jo?
I backed Get Me Out Of Here and Ronaldo Des Mottes a few weeks ago.
Yet another chance for AP to show that he isn’t a lost cause in major races.
About 13 months ago I had a huge fancy for Songe for this then he blew it by winning a good race at Haydock.
Hasn’t had the ideal prep but the stable is in form and for me, the 60 on Betfair is huge.
Wasn’t going to bet in the race as it looked too hard on paper but decided to trawl through the videos tonight.
After three hours…the two that left an impression and have plausible conditions and connections are Fairyland (looked to have further potential whilst winning over course and distance last time) and Harry Tricker (solid citizen).
I am going to double them both with King Edmund at Warwick.I agree with you Shabby (and Fistypoos),
Fairyland has that ahead of the handicapper look about her and is worth an E/W investment.
I like Harry Tricker as the main E/W bet.
Not original, but hopefully a winner.
Zip
In Fairyland’s race,
That said, I can see any of these winning, and it’s a madness race.gl !
- Total Posts 17716
Even allowing for subsequent improvement, if Khyber Kim and Medermit’s current handicap marks are to be believed, then Harry Stricker is surely thrown in here with a shovel?
I have followed Harry Tricker’s progress for a while. Only because I saw him (get beat) in a novice hurdle at Fontwell a few years back, & I tend to look out for the few NH horses I’ve actually seen in the flesh.
My problem with him; is that for the year or so prior to the Greatwood, he had seemed exposed as a OR120-125 handicapper. He’s won a couple of OK races off OR121 & OR122, but has been beaten several times off marks in the 120’s. He’s now off OR138. The Cheltenham race he was 2nd in was a different level, but that’s the only piece of form in his career that gives him a chance here. He may have just improved vastly, if so, great for them. I was thinking he was a OR130 horse at best.
I have followed Harry Tricker’s progress for a while. Only because I saw him (get beat) in a novice hurdle at Fontwell a few years back, & I tend to look out for the few NH horses I’ve actually seen in the flesh.
My problem with him; is that for the year or so prior to the Greatwood, he had seemed exposed as a OR120-125 handicapper. He’s won a couple of OK races off OR121 & OR122, but has been beaten several times off marks in the 120’s. He’s now off OR138. The Cheltenham race he was 2nd in was a different level, but that’s the only piece of form in his career that gives him a chance here. He may have just improved vastly, if so, great for them. I was thinking he was a OR130 horse at best.
Cheekpieces
I think
Fairyland
is the value here at 20/1 currently – ticks all the boxes and relished the drop back in trip last time out on soft ground at Newbury!
Others to consider at
Mamlook
,
Spirit River
and
Ronaldo Des Mottes
on Trends and
Oldrik
on adjusted ratings. Whatever happens it’ll be a corker!!
Moehat
I’ve just been looking ar Arch Rebel’s form, Group 1 competitor on the flat running off 10stone today
I don’t usually back in handicaps but a small ew is temptingI am a gollum like creature that trawls around at the bottom of handicaps looking for little bits of form; my small ew bets [25 pence ones] mean that I have to find good prices! However, there does seem to be bits of money going on Arch Rebel, especially at Corals.
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