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The big handicap hurdle of the weekend. I’m no great expert on these types of races, but don’t a few of the market leaders have quite severe handicap marks?
G.Moore horses normally run well in this, Harry Tricker is joint-fav, but I don’t fancy him off OR138. Of Moore’s, I’d prefer taking a flier with Numide in the hopes he’s be laid out for something like this, he has the inherent class…or even First Avenue (if he wasn’t a Montjeu & out of the handicap!).
Even the D.Pipe horses don’t look well in, do they? Mamlook looked good last time over 2m4f, but is up in the weights, as is Ronaldo Des Mottes, who is up 11lb for his last win. They don’t seem that well handicapped to me.
I can completely understand why Spirit River is the other joint-fav though. N.Henderson used to have a cracking record in this race, & you can see that she’s been raced with something like this in mind. Even N.Henderson’s other entries look possibles, Fairyland won a big Newbury handicap before Xmas, & alot of people seemed to think Stravinsky Dance was a good thing a few weeks back at Ascot when he flopped behind Mamlook.
I can’t work out why Get Me Out of Here is such a big price. Fair enough, it’s not his trainer’s MO to win this sort of race; and he hasn’t yet shown the high-class handicap form of some of the others, and he may just not be good enough…..but he’s unbeaten, has looked good so far, & is still only rated OR135. Not sure if you call him unexposed, progressive or what, but he could prove to be much better than his current rating. I’d have to have something on him at 12/1.
Of the others, I’d be looking to choose one of Nicky Henderson’s, & maybe I’ll consider a little e/w bet on Numide nearer the time.
Now I’ll leave it to you NH experts!
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Get Me Out Of Here is unbeaten, progressive and will handle conditions, but Jonjo O’Neill’s form has to be a concern. If Born Again’s victory at the weekend was a sign that the yard is finding it’s feet then he’s definitely a contender – 12/1 is a fair price at this point in time.
With Mamlook perhaps saving his best for Ascot, Manyriverstocross being better over further, Ronaldo Des Mottes preferring better ground and Blue Bajan remaining a touch high in the weights, I’m left with
Spirit River
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On his run behind Get Me Out Of Here in November it could be argued that two miles around Newbury isn’t to his liking, but he was in front early enough at Cheltenham to make me think that speed isn’t an issue. He goes in the ground, travels strongly, can apparently quicken and has the potential to be a good deal better than his current mark.
Spirit River
2 point win @ 6/1
Get Me Out Of Here
1 point each-way @ 12/1
Both are inexperienced and both are pretty short prices really imo. GMOOH looks badly handicapped too.
Get Me Out Of Here is unbeaten, progressive and will handle conditions, but Jonjo O’Neill’s form has to be a concern. If Born Again’s victory at the weekend was a sign that the yard is finding it’s feet then he’s definitely a contender – 12/1 is a fair price at this point in time.
With Mamlook perhaps saving his best for Ascot, Manyriverstocross being better over further, Ronaldo Des Mottes preferring better ground and Blue Bajan remaining a touch high in the weights, I’m left with
Spirit River
.
On his run behind Get Me Out Of Here in November it could be argued that two miles around Newbury isn’t to his liking, but he was in front early enough at Cheltenham to make me think that speed isn’t an issue. He goes in the ground, travels strongly, can apparently quicken and has the potential to be a good deal better than his current mark.
Spirit River
2 point win @ 6/1
Get Me Out Of Here
1 point each-way @ 12/1
I also think Takeroc has a very good chance.
He’s an animal that seems to promise more than he delivers but his comeback run shows that things are starting to fall into shape.
A very tasty 14’s is simply too big a price.Paul Nicholls has tipped up Takeroc and has said it’s too big a price also that he has improved massively for a good comeback.
NTD obviously sees a big handicap hurdle in Frontier Dancer – stable in a bit of form too although has dried up a bit this last week, the less rain in Newbury this week the better his chance on Saturday.
I like the look of Manyriverstocross. He’s treated pretty well in the weights, and wasn’t suited by the trip last time. He should make a decent chaser. I might not have a punt, but he’s one to look out for all the same.
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Bit unusual for a Tote Gold Trophy’s I can’t find one that looks like it’s been laid out for the race but there are a couple who’s target it’s been for a long time
The Newbury race Get Me Out Of Here won was easy pickings and the idea was to win there to to ensure he would get in here. Gambled from 8’s to 4’s on the day he won very easily but considering Radium was regarded his main danger the race wasn’t anything to write home about. Radium is moderate and got stuffed by Donald McCain’s very good novice Peddlar’s Cross and the 2nd Yetholm had run 2nd to Jonjo’s Strattford Stroller the time before.
He was thought to be a very good horse he’s lived up to the hype but it’s hard to say how good he actually is. Obviously he acts on the course but he’s gone up 12lbs and gone up in class so it’s a big ask for a novice. As far as fitness goes I don’t consider that a worry at all. If he turns up you can bet your life he’ll be spot on for this and he won’t start at 12/1 either.
Nicky Henderson has some record in this and when Spirit River ran behind Jonjo’s at Newbury it would be fair to say he was short of a gallop or ten. His eye catching run that day saw him start fav next time and winning as he liked at Cheltenham. Again it was a very poor race and his French form isn’t worth a bucket of manure so you are taking his position in the betting very much on trust. His current odds are based on Nicky’s record in the race not on form.
Another French import Ronaldo Des Mottes was decent on the flat and came back to his best last time out. Again the race itself wasn’t up to much and with him being a consistant sort you wouldn’t expect him to show massive improvement. He simply might not be good enough to win this.
Harry Tricker on the otherhand looks outstanding on form. Despite getting weight splitting Khyber King and Medermit is someothing most of these couldn’t go near to doing. His form reads well, he beat Zabeel Palace the time before stumping a Barney Curly gamble but it never stopped Barney backing his off the boards a week later at Ascot.
Mamlook I like a lot but have no idea which one David Pipe thinks has the best chance. He was very impressive but beat one of Nicky Henderson’s lesser lights and that puts me off him.
Harry Ticker looks rock solid while the others are "Could Be’s" Of those Jonjo’s looks the one worth taking another gamble on but I’ll wait till I know 100% he;s running first.
I’m backing Harry Ticker now but will be keeping my ear to the ground on the well being of Get me Out Of Here who if is right could be the handicap snip of the year.
Although Harry Tricker looks very high in the weights, raised 12lb for his second in the Greatwood behind Khyber Kim, it may not be enough to stop him in this context where conditions will be pretty much ideal; should be good, good to soft in places and will like the strong pace. He also travels and jumps extremely well and he is still relatively unexposed at this sort of level.
All of Pipe’s runners look badly handicapped, and Henderson’s not the best value for what they have achieved so far (Spirit River/Stravinsky’s Dance) and I also think the ground won’t be soft enough for the favourite. Fairyland looks the most interesting though, will like the ground but the concern is that he has been off the track for about 3 months.
The two I most like the look of are Manyriverstocross and Frontier Dancer. Although Manyrivers was disappointing in the Challow, I’m a little bit surprised he has been solely campaigned so far over hurdles on soft ground; his best flat form came on a much faster surface and I think he’ll be seen in a better light if the ground is good on Saturday. Frontier Dancer is a value e/w bet now back on a faster surface after being outclassed last time behind Mamlook. NTD remains in good form at present especially on Saturdays and can see this one going well.
Manyriverstocross for me –
Solid flat form, looked to be reasonably well suited by hurdling and King sure last run wasn’t his form. Trainer has been unsually bullish this week and, off his current mark, he could be very well in.
Positive update on Numide:
http://www.britishhorseracing.com/BHAxtra/
Click ‘Previous’ twice to get to Gary Moore’s interview.
http://www.theracingforum.co.uk/horse-racing-features/2010/02/manyriverstocross-can-sink-rivals-in-totesport-trophy/
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http://www.jonjowinsthetote.com
Looks a lot tougher when you see them all jocked up
I think it rather important that between us we name all the runners, so that we get the winner.
I started a serious study of this race last weekend, but soon got diverted. Not before I noticed that Hobbs has a reasonable record in the race though.
However, I only backed 2 out of his 3, so didn’t say anything before. However, my two are in.
Have kept bets to a minimum this year, as I don’t mind losing, but I get really pissed off when betfair hold onto your money for 10 days when the race is abandoned, just in case it is rescheduled.
Oldrik 110 £5.00
Blue Bajan 65 £2.00
Ring The Boss 301.85 £2.00
Micheal Flips 1 £2.50
Mon Michel 1 £0.82
£12.32 totalLatter two bets were fairly random, and were put on earlier.
This list might be slightly warped by Rooster Booster.
An edited selection of Hobbs runners:-
2008
County Zen 3rd
Missis Potts 6th2004
Rooster Booster 2nd
Monkerhostin 3rd2003
In Contrast 4th2002
Rooster Booster 2nd
Fait Le Jojo 5th
Lord Brex 7th2001
Rooster Booster 2nd2000
Doctor Goddard 4th
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