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Getting fed up with the Tote these days, sick to death of their shabby returns.
Just backed Bergonzi at Carlisle. I refreshed my page every 10 seconds prior to the race and the Tote was showing ‘odds’ of around £4.30, £4.80, £5.10, £4.90, £4.50 etc right up to the off.
The horse wins at 100/30 THIRD favourite – yet the Tote return was £2.50
Absolutely unbeliavable
This is not the first time this has happened either, in facct it happens quite regularly. Matt Chapman on ATR highlighted the Tote price about an AoB horse the other night. It was Evs prior to the off but was showing at around £3.50 on the Tote, and Matt said it will be interesting to see how much it returns if it wins.
It did win and it returned £1.80. If Matt is honest he will tell you that I emailed him prior to the race saying it will return under £2 as this is how the Tote returns have been going since I’d been monitoring them the previous two weeks. I don’t mind if a horse is showing as £2.10 on the off but returns £1.90, but this £3 and £4 on the off and returning far less just doesn’t appear right.
It’s safe to say I will never have a bet in the Tote win pool ever again – that Bergonzi return was the last straw.
Swings and roundabouts – you could easily quote the Lingfield 15:00 – SP 12/1 Tote £20.40, or even £125.20 vs 66/1 SP in the Newmarket 16:20.
If you look at the 14 races so far this afternoon, the tote has roughly equalled the SP in two races, has been less than SP in 4 races and has bettered the SP in 8 cases.
Swings and roundabouts – you could easily quote the Lingfield 15:00 – SP 12/1 Tote £20.40, or even £125.20 vs 66/1 SP in the Newmarket 16:20.
If you look at the 14 races so far this afternoon, the tote has roughly equalled the SP in two races, has been less than SP in 4 races and has bettered the SP in 8 cases.
That’s not my point Paul, in fact it couldn’t be further from my point.
My point is that the horse Begonzi was showing at around £4.50 – £5.00 at every moment right up to the race going off, there was no indication whatsoever that it was going to go lower. Low and behold the horse wins and returns at £2.50 – that’s the equivelant of 6/4 – despite it being 100/30 third favourite.
I know fine well that it’s swings and roundabouts regarding tote v sp returns, but you don’t see a horse that is 100/30 on the off returning 6/4 do you?
Ok, a mass of people might have lumped on Bergonzi at the very last second, but this sort of thing happens just way too often.
Anyway, I’ve severed my ties with the tote so no harm done and my initial anger has reduced somewhat
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The Tote return can beat the SP 10 times out of 10, Paul, but that doesn’t explain the massive discrepancy between it and the ‘advertised’ price moments before the off. I don’t know how well funded a win pool is likely to be at Catterick on a Wednesday afternoon, but I suspect that one or two grannies armed with a couple of quid apiece aren’t going to have a dramatic effect on the outcome.
To be fair, you and Chapman were stating the "bleedin’ obvious", no offence intended. There are peanuts in some of them pools particularly Ireland, the figures for the Irish tracks can be less than 100 grand in total for all pools and all races at a meeting.
Different matter with a strong market at the likes of Royal Ascot or York etc or what would occur with a Tote monopoly.The pool in the race in question was £3501.05 and the last "show" I have before the off was £2.50 not the £3.50 you are quoting.
If you watch the pools in real time you will find a large percentage comes in in the final moments before the race and if there is a snowball effect from runner shortening it is going to be more marked, especially in a weak pool.
For example I have just monitored the 17:05 at Catterick and and the pool increased from just under £3,000 to a final £6,212.55 in the final three minutes.
That’s fair enough Paul and thanks for the explanation.
Where did you get that information from though, is it only available AFTER the race. I was refreshing the page literally every 10 seconds and Bergonzi was showing at more than £3.50 right up until the off.
Is the information I’m receiving delayed somewhat then? The ‘show’ that you say was £2.50 at the off certainly wasn’t showing on my screen and never was, and you appear to have only got this information AFTER the race – which is just the same as waiting for the return to come through
For live monitoring go to
http://club.totesport.com/totepoolLiveInfo/Java/index.htm
That does require clicking and being there to watch – however it is possible to write an app which will monitor and record the info if you are really that interested.
For day of race "last show" and final pool totals go to the Sporting Life "Live Shows" page and that "freezes" each races dividends at the off, however bear in mind there is still some late money coming into the pool immediately after the off.
I can’t imagine why any punter with the internet would be backing short priced horses win only on the tote. It’s bonkers.
I would agree with you there Rory, the "value" of the tote vs SP tends to be with the longer priced runners as exampled this afternoon although, of course, generalising can be dangerous, that is why I like to monitor the pools.
Having said that it is very rarely I bet that late – usually only when something really catches my eye in the paddock or going down.
I can’t imagine why any punter with the internet would be backing short priced horses win only on the tote. It’s bonkers.
That’s a ridiculous comment Rory in my opinion.
As has already been said on this thread, some Tote returns are bigger than the SP on short price horses – it’s swings and roundabouts. Ghimaar has just won at Worcestor, sp 1/3, Tote Return £1.50 (1/2). So why is it bonkers? The first race at Catterick today, favourite won at 6/4, Tote Return £3.50 (5/2). So I’ll ask again, why is it bonkers?
My annoyance came from a few horses that I’ve backed recently that looked as though they might pay ok on the tote because the very last show (that I saw) indicated such, but they then returned ridiculously short.
I rarely back in the win fund with the Tote (and won’t be from now on), but I certainly wouldn’t suggest it’s bonkers to do so.
I can’t imagine why any punter with the internet would be backing short priced horses win only on the tote. It’s bonkers.
That’s a ridiculous comment Rory in my opinion; no disrespect intended.
As has already been said on this thread, some Tote returns are bigger than the SP on short price horses – it’s swings and roundabouts. Ghimaar has just won at Worcestor, sp 1/3, Tote Return £1.50 (1/2). So why is it bonkers? The first race at Catterick today, favourite won at 6/4, Tote Return £3.50 (5/2). So I’ll ask again, why is it bonkers?
My annoyance came from a few horses that I’ve backed recently that looked as though they might pay ok on the tote because the very last show (that I saw) indicated such, but they then returned ridiculously short.
I rarely back in the win fund with the Tote (and won’t be from now on), but I certainly wouldn’t suggest it’s bonkers to do so.
In fact Rory, so far today we’ve had;
Johnny Hancocks – 5/2F – £3.50
Tale Untold – 4/5F – £2.00
Explorator – 11/8F – £2.70
Goldtrek – 8/11F – £2.40
Memory – 5/4F – £2.60
Ghimaar – 1/3F – £1.50That’s SIX, short-priced horses (favourites in fact) that all won with the Tote having a better return than the SP. So I’m a little baffled as to why you suggest backing short-priced horses in the Tote win fund is ‘bonkers’
Simple One Eye – because you’re betting entirely blind as you’ve pointed out in earlier posts. If you want to back a jolly, then you must have some idea of whether its price is acceptable. Having a bet on a raffle, which the tote return can be, is bonkers. I accept that it often pays better than SP, but that’s a scenario which you’ll admit is impossible to predict. I’d actually suggest that you will often get a better return on favourites which appear to be under the show price in the seconds before the off, such is the capricious nature of the pool liquidity.
Yes I agree with that Rory. Apologies, I wrongly assumed you meant it was bonkers because of the ‘poor’ returns. I totally agree you’re betting blind in a sense, in fact it borders on ridiculous sometimes.
Apart from Bergonzi today, anotehr bizare one was the first favourite at Naas. The tote’s ‘show’ was switching between £1.40 and £1.50 seconds before the off. The horse then returned at £1.10 – that’s odds of 1/10 about a 2/7 shot. Like you say, you’d be… well… bonkers to have a sizeable bet on such a short price horse with the tote.
I’ve had a few bets in recent weeks with them, simply because that’s were I put my placepots on and I had a bit of spare cash. But after today’s events, and other returns I’ve witnessed in the last fortnight, I won’t be having a ‘win’ bet with them again.
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