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Stilvi, what makes you believe Smad Place is on the decline? He didn’t run his race in the Gold Cup, arguably for a couple of reasons – a hard race in the Cotwswold 6 weeks earlier, and ground way too fast for him these days. But he had a perfectly respectable Hennessy prep at Aintree and at Newbury got within ten lengths of the subsequent Welsh National winner and Gold Cup second fav giving him 11lbs, again, on ground that could have been softer to bring out the best in him.
He had his perfect conditions on Saturday and there’s nothing that I can see to suggest he did not run to form.
What is more likely, in my view, is that Many Clouds had improved enough to run the best race of his life. That will be confirmed in his posthumous OR. By how much he had improved we don’t know. If Thistlecrack is beaten fair and square in the Gold Cup then the level of Many Clouds improvement will be easier to assess. If Thistlecrack wins the Gold Cup comfortably, that MC assessment will probably be more difficult.
I discovered very early in my punting life that a blind defence of previous assessments of a horse are a quick way to the poor house. I feel though that here, far too many people have been waiting to condemn a top class horse for one run…one run. And that condemnation is built on questionable evidence. The reaction reminds me of some of the post-race comments after his open ditch error ‘Awful’ ‘Terrible jumper’ ‘Guesser’, ‘Only sensible route is a return to hurdling’ etc.
Give the horse a chance to prove what Saturday’s form amounted to. If he gets beat in the Gold Cup, I’ll be the first back here at the table with my humble pie cutlery at the ready.
Stilvi, you think that was a 163 performance and you say I’ve lost the plot?
The only way you could give that race a big rating would be if you actually believe the King George rating and you also believe that Smad Place has run his race and is a solid yardstick. I don’t believe either. Smad Place is on the decline and perhaps more importantly I suspect he needs to have his own way in front. I doubt he is going to win another race unless dropped into the veterans series. Many Clouds ran to about 160 at Aintree so I have the front two improving very slightly on their previous runs.
When I used the phrase ‘thoroughly exposed’ I was predominantly referring to Thistlecrack’s limitations in respect of stamina and jumping. That said I would be very surprised if he ever progressed beyond 165 which would leave him well short of Gold Cup winning standard.
You don’t need to think Smad Place ran anywhere near his best to believe Thistlecrack ran well. There was 17 lengths back to Smad Place.
Value Is EverythingYou don’t need to think Smad Place ran anywhere near his best to believe Thistlecrack ran well. There was 17 lengths back to Smad Place.
Is SP reproduced his Hennessy run on Saturday, Native River has a monumental task against Thistlecrack in the Gold Cup.
I discovered very early in my punting life that a blind defence of previous assessments of a horse are a quick way to the poor house. I feel though that here, far too many people have been waiting to condemn a top class horse for one run…one run. And that condemnation is built on questionable evidence. The reaction reminds me of some of the post-race comments after his open ditch error ‘Awful’ ‘Terrible jumper’ ‘Guesser’, ‘Only sensible route is a return to hurdling’ etc.
As you know I was one of the minority defending Thistlecrack after the his first two runs. I thought much of the criticism was completely unjustified. It appeared that after Newbury and Kempton opinion went from one extreme to the other. Suddenly he had become the sport’s main flagship bearer. The vast majority seemed entirely happy that he had beaten a well below par Cue Card and a bunch of 150 rated horses by three lengths. Yes, Scudamore conveniently eased down but had the pack got to him I doubt very much that he would have been able to pick up again and fend them off. That was in a race run to suit and at a track that will invariably favour speed over stamina. If stamina looked an issue at Kempton it was always likely to be a greater concern at Cheltenham.
Having backed Thistlecrack I would love to be proved completely wrong but I don’t see any scenario that would result in him winning a Gold Cup.
You don’t need to think Smad Place ran anywhere near his best to believe Thistlecrack ran well. There was 17 lengths back to Smad Place.
Is SP reproduced his Hennessy run on Saturday, Native River has a monumental task against Thistlecrack in the Gold Cup.
I backed Smad Place in the Hennessy. I think he was running off a mark a couple of pounds lower than he was given for his win the previous year. He never threatened to win at any stage, momentarily looking like he might finish in the five before producing another weak finish. He was dropped another three pounds for that performance. If it wasn’t for Thistlecrack’s lofty rating getting in the way he would be due another drop.
The Cotswold Chase was not rated on Smad Place.
Do you mean by the RP, Mark? How was it rated?
By the way, Phil Smith has left Thistlecrack unchanged on 171. A sensible decision until more evidence is available imo.
By the way, Phil Smith has left Thistlecrack unchanged on 171. A sensible decision until more evidence is available imo.
That’s about as big a surprise as tomorrow being Wednesday.
My opinion , for what it’s worth , is that Thistlecrack lost the race mainly because of Tom Scudamore’s lack of good tactical nous and indecision , allied to Thistlecrack’s stamina , or lack thereof – a point later mentioned by Ruby Walsh , who suggested the clues were there for all to see in the latter stages of the King George .
Whilst of the opinion that Tom Scudamore is a jockey of average ability rather than outstanding ability , I thoroughly believe that Davy Russell , Noel Fehily , Dicky Johnson , Ruby Walsh , Paul Townend or Barry Gerraghty would have steered Thistlecrack past the winning post in first place , I did get the impression beforehand that Colin Tizzard was being very mindful of the big race in the third of week of March , and therefore was not overly concerned whether Thistlecrack won or not , but rather that he didn’t leave his Gold Cup aspirations behind on the back of winning lesser prize at the same course a month and a half before.
I think Thistlecrack is still the one they all have to beat , but I do worry that rather than horse’s undoubted ability , that like that other equine star of yesteryear , Pendil , his Gold Cup hopes may be scuppered by his less able jockey and a slight lack of stamina at the business end of the gruelling three and a quarter miles round Prestbury Park .
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I’ve criticised TS before for his handling of Thistlecrack, but I can’t see what he could have done differently on Saturday. He was never far off the pace and he brought the horse with a smooth run with the intention of jumping the last in front.
There’s an argument that Thistlecrack is more comfortable in the lead but that would have been a major gamble against fine-jumping, front-running, hardened pros in his first attempt at that stamina test. They say good horses go on any ground and he went on it – he was hardly hammered. But time might tell that good ground is perfect for him. Reflecting after a few days, I’ve lost none of my belief that we have a superstar on our hands.
I don’t think Tom did much wrong…easy to criticise with the benefit of hindsight after a horse has been beat I suppose.
Thought he gave a more than fair argument about not kicking on earlier on Attheraces the other night…it was run in a fair decent time, he produced at the last going pretty well, got in front after the last and just got ourbattled…what’s to say if he’s kicked earlier he wouldn’t have been treading water after the last and got beat further?
Still think the rating is just a little on the high side yet and still a bit to prove for me to be considered one of the greats everyone was saying he was after the KG…Gold Cup will tell us more, but I personally think he won’t place…looking forward again to it though as it’s opened the race back up a bit!
I’ve criticised TS before for his handling of Thistlecrack, but I can’t see what he could have done differently on Saturday. He was never far off the pace and he brought the horse with a smooth run with the intention of jumping the last in front.
There’s an argument that Thistlecrack is more comfortable in the lead but that would have been a major gamble against fine-jumping, front-running, hardened pros in his first attempt at that stamina test. They say good horses go on any ground and he went on it – he was hardly hammered. But time might tell that good ground is perfect for him. Reflecting after a few days, I’ve lost none of my belief that we have a superstar on our hands.
It’s really not surprising that a horse used to prominent tactics over fences, who likes to stand off obsticles (especially ditches) who has a long stride – does not like being in behind horses.
Thistlecrack was held up in mid-field. with horses all around him and (probably as a consequence) did not jump anywhere near as well as previously. However, I would not blame TS for this. It makes sense to find out how the horse can be ridden – before he gets to the Gold Cup. ie If (as it appears) there are several front-runners there’s a good chance the pace will be too strong, disadvantagous to those up front and advantageous to those held up. Saturday’s race was important to find out if Thistlecrack can be held up in amongst horses. He can’t! Or at least not without lessening his chance.
For Gold Cup day: In an ideal world TS will want to race prominently with a clear view of his fences. If there is too much pace imo (bacause of inferior jumping in the Cotswold) yes he’ll be mid-field; but this time will race on the outside – with a clearer view of fences, taking off when he wants to. That’ll mean he’ll be giving away ground, but it’s a price worth paying because his jumping will (in all probability) make up for it.
Value Is EverythingI was at Cheltenham and could see the winning line clearly from above in a box. My first impression is that Thistlecrack tends to land very steeply over a fence, which unbalances him and put him on the back foot several times during the race. On the run in it did look like TS was a little reluctant to get stuck into Thistlecrack. Thankfully I walked inside after that to see a Doncaster race so was spared the terrible demise of Many Clouds. The difference in way of running between Many Clouds and Thistlecrack is that Many Clouds got his head down and ran, whereas Thistlecrack ‘comes back at you’ when driven out. Personally I think if Thistlecracks jumping becomes under pressure (as it most definitely will) in the GC he may come well unstuck, i’d run Native River and leave Thistlecrack out.
By the way, Phil Smith has left Thistlecrack unchanged on 171. A sensible decision until more evidence is available imo.
Something I find confusing, Joe:
How can you think Phil Smith is “sensible” in keeping Thistlecrack on 171, when you’ve said:
“He (Smad Place) had his perfect conditions on Saturday and there’s nothing that I can see to suggest he did not run to form.”…
Thistlecrack beat Smad Place 17 lengths.
If you believe Thistlecrack ran to 171 then that would mean Smad Place was well below form on around 154. Well below Smad Place’s OR of 162 (has been rated as high as 169).
In my opinion Thistlecrack has run to around the same mark as in the King George… Which also means Many Clouds improved a little on his very best. However, for those two things to be true surely Smad Place must have been well below form?
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