Tipster suggestions

[billion]

Hold on, just wait while I put the tin hat on!

Right – incoming flack expected.

One or two of us are finding it just a tad hard to find winners at present and I am one.

Formath confesses in his staking thread to a similar malaise and MrE fell at the 12th step I think it was.

So, may I ask if there is a anyone in Ward 7 or forumland who can suggest a tipster, internet or newspaper (freely available) that can command a small measure of respect and a strike rate which can be applied to a staking plan (staircase or similar) and help me make a profit.

I guess any suggestion should be accompanied with a staking plan but then again both suggestions do not have to come from the same inmate.

Billy's Outback Shack

[Hatter]

Hi Billion

Struggling a bit meself & need to get me betting boots back on & sorted.
Don’t really know what is allowed to be put on here
Don’t really like to rate others either btw

This fella seems to have a sense of humour & relatively good success rate – that will stop now i suggest
http://www.ratingreport.blogspot.com

All the best

[Matron]

You can say or recommend anybody you wish – just, don’t put any commercial "links" in your posts. (We are not here to promote anybody or by increasing their rankings with "backlinks" to "TRF".)

People are quite capable of "Googling".

Regards

[billion]

Thanks for that

Hatter

but not really what I was after but then again I don’t really know what it is I want.

My line of thought was

MrE

‘s "staircase"

A 12 step staking plan and I would have thought a pro’ tipster available from a newspaper, lets say Tom Pepper (Sun) should be able to select 1 or 2 winners in every 12 nap selections and with a bit of luck make a profit.

As

MrE

has said before the staircase will only work at certain prices and if say T. Pepper’s prices do not match is there a plan that does or is there a tipster that does match the staicase.

Pick’n’Mix or Mix’n’Match (whatever) but all I was trying to ask is if anyone knows of a reliable tipster and maybe we can find an expected strike rate when choosing suitable priced odds.

Not easy.

I will keep an eye on your suggestion but as said would prefer a pro.

Billy's Outback Shack

[Nathan Hughes]

I don’t like it Bill. A tipster you chose may suffer at the hands of Matron and therefore not have much energy to pick the right horse. But Matron cant sedate all of them at the same time.

Do you remember Chuckpud? No I cant either but would his system suit the staircase?

http://www.theracingforum.co.uk/horse-racing-forum/systems/racing-post-naps-table-system-t83248.html?hilit=naps%20table

Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026

[MrE]

Billion!!!!…. you surprise me with your vulgar language, how do you get away with using the word "tipsters" down here in Ward 7…. I’m sure that Matron has warned you about this before, a lot of the members in this godforsaken section of the forum are here because they have fallen foul of tipsters, the majority of them have come to grief following that bunch of misfits…. to mention the word "tipster" on here is going to cause some distress to the inmates of this asylum….. The TRF Asylum for the Mentally Unstable….. and if you want to know how unstable, just take a closer look at Matron after his self injections have worn off, I can’t imagine what he’s self injecting with….. well, I can, but that’s gonna make me as unstable as him….. before I knew better, I used to think it was just piles….
I’m also surprised at the fact that you don’t know where your going wrong…. your asking for the help of "t*****s", you must be in a bad way….. they are the last people you need….. your future fortunes are all in your own hands, but I think that you need to change your ways…..

MrE

[Hatter]

No probs Matron – delete if inappropriate
It may be that it will lead onto a pay per tip system – just something i fell across a few weeks ago & keeping an eye on.
I never turn down a profit

I don’t like Summer jumpimg or Irish racing – just seem to throw up too many unexpected results – then again so does today
100/1 wow
Trainer had 4 in race – why ?
& none of them had reached the podium in last 6 runs – call the stewards

As i hinted at earlier Billion – i don’t rate any of the tipsters + agree with Mr E

The Chuckypud experiment took me back over 20 years or more – jeez that long i been looking for the magic system
Never did find the Holy Grail then & does not look like Chucky did either

My take on them is that if they were any good then they would be making a living from it & not writing for papers

I tried all sorts of combos thru the RP / Sporting Life to no avail.
If 8 out of the 13 picked the same one then surely it must win. Nope !!

But then again i didn’t try it with the staircase
But don’t think that would give you the prices you need

[MrE]

OK, I’ve got half an hour before I go and watch a bit of telly….. and from what I’ve read, I think there is a misunderstanding of "The Staircase"….. you are assuming that the staking of the Staircase is 111222333444 covering 12 horses, nothing could be further from the truth, so I’ll go over it again to try and clarify…..
Each stake is a "step" and you are required to go up and down these steps as the winners or losers dictate….. the number of steps is dictated by the average price of your winning bets…. so if your poison is even money bets, then the progression is in single steps as in 1234567….. at 2/1 it would be 1122334455 and at 3/1 you should expect 111222333444….. so there is not much point in using the 3/1 step Staircase for winning bets of 6/4….. the odd one slipping below is OK because the higher priced winners will make up for it, but these are to be modified for the average price of your winners…..
The second point is that you stay on the "stairs" until the sequence is completed, by completed I mean that you’ve dropped off the top of the stairs or ended up back at your starting point at the bottom of the stairs….. you move up and down the stairs according to whether you have had a winner or a loser and you move up or down the stairs accordingly….. assuming that your on the 2/1 stairs, that is 1122334455, that’s a total of 30pts in that bet and you will possible use all of those 30pts and fall off the top of the stairs, but you will have won some money on the journey….. lets try this…..
4 Losers, that means that you have lost 6pts, the next bet is 3pts on a 2/1, you win 6pts and move ONE step down the stairs so your next bet is for 2pts….. another winner at 2/1 brings you back 4pts profit and you go down the stairs ONE step (remember, at this stage you are now 4pts in profit because all your losses were retrieved on your last bet… you are now on step 3….. you now have another 4 losers on the trot, that takes you to step 7 and a 4pt stake…. up to this point you have lost a further 2233 in your climb up the stairs, so it’s cost you 10pts in lost points so far, but you get your winner at the 4pt stage, this time we’ll call it 3/1, so a profit of 12pts of which you lost 10pts getting there, so another 2pt profit to go with the 4pts that you made earlier….. your are now + 6pts and you take ONE step back down the stairs because you just had a winner….
AS you will understand, it is no good using this method if your prices are too high because you’ll drop off the stairs as your losing run get longer…. why should this work better than other methods??…. it’s because your winners will come in groups, it’s only rarely that you get 4 losers and one winner followed by another 5 losers and then another winner… if that was the case and you could only get 2 winners at 2/1 from every 10 bets, you shouldn’t be betting because your gonna get a thrashing whatever you do….. but this is assuming that you’ll get your runs of 4 or 5 losers, but you should also get a small clump of winners together, that clump might only consist of a group of 2, but if you get that twice, you’ll be back down the stairs like Wee Willie Winkie….. I have to be honest here though…. I totally disregard the staking 1234567….. I use 1122334455 and use that for any bets from evens to 2/1….. the other steps I use as stated….. I just don’t like the rapid escalation of the first staircase….. and I use 1122334455 to superb effect at roulette, a real "bookie buster"……

MrE

[billion]

Selections have to start from somewhere – mine sure are no good whatsoever.

C’mon

MrE

you did not do much (if any better) with your recent selections.

Formath

is about to have a Wayne Rooney transplant after pulling his all out.

So where does this all leave us?

As

Chuckypud

says "he can absolve himself of all blame when it goes wrong" which is not such a bad place to start from.

In defence of the Tipster – their failure is there for all to see and that in itself leaves the door wide open for all and sundry to have a pop.

If a tipster (my point of reference being of a newspaper ilk) can achieve 20% strike rate there could be a plan to turn in a profit.

Let’s look at

Chuckypuds

system which is producing a very high SR.

Lets knock out the odds on selections and run with 1/1 to 2/1 prices and get a 60%SR. in theory there could be a losing run of 40 per 100 selections but that sure will not happen.

60 win bets at 1/1 = 60 pts at LS
40 lost = -40 points

Nett profit +20

No doubles or trebles, no staking plan other than level stakes, well plus 20 is a hell of a lot better than I have been doing of late.

June/July/August are said to be the better months for the shorter priced winners and so this could be an ideal time to "Fill Your Boots"

Nathan

, well spotted and thank-you for posting it, I have a spare tin hat if you want it and I don’t think with all your hospital experience

Matron

‘s needle will bother you at all.

Who is brave enough to suggest a suitable staking plan to improve the profit of

Chuckypud

‘s system?

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Aha! the "staircase" is now revealed in all it’s glory.

Crossed postings

MrE

And so

Chuckypud

‘s 1/1 to 2/1 selection method would then be 11.22.33.44 on the staircase (I think)

What say you

MrE

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Out of interest I quickly checked today’s Nap Table and introduced my own little twist.

The result was: –

1/1 – 2/1 Kitty Wells – LOST!

Odds On of which there were two but did not qualify as prices were too short – both won 2/7 & 4/5

Intiqaal ran at 100/30 and therefore the price was too big and it LOST!

If played today it would have been 1 losing selection.

Billy's Outback Shack

[Nathan Hughes]

Yes Bill I would be happy to don the tin hat on 2 conditions.

1. If it goes paired shape you blame Chuckypud and not me…..

2. You vote for Canford Cliffs when I give you the nod……

Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026

[billion]

Although it is against my religion to "paper trade"

Nathan

I think it is conversion time.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Step number one (11.22.33.44.55) and am sure

MrE

will advise of staircase progress along the way because I sure do not like heights.

Maybe if things go well some advice regarding MERDS will also be forthcoming but lets not get too far ahead – small steps first.

Two selections for today: –

Yarmouth 5.00

MOKALIF

11/10 (BOG)

Haydock 7.50

NAHRAIN

1/1 (BOG) Won 8/15 R4 15p

One point each.

Plus 3.69 incl. 1/2pt double

Billy's Outback Shack

[MrE]

Morning all….. quite simple for today’s staking Billy…..
also, you are wrong to discard odds on selections for several reasons, but that’s for later….. and as for my dismal failure at tipping, I was tipping up around the 6/1 range which allows me some losing runs, and I still think you’ll find that I ended on the good side….. as stated many times, if you hit a bad patch, pack it in until the tide turns…. so you can’t compare tips in the 6/1 range at the same level as the paper tipsters who are down around the even money area….. just wanted to defend myself a tad….

MrE

[MrE]

Ooops, I forgot….. MERD’s….. these are just plain and simple "rolling" doubles whereby you attempt to get value where no value exists…. if you have selections at low prices and odds on, we should attempt to let the winnings and stake ride onto as many times as required to reach 2/1….. I don’t complete any bet unless I can get 2/1 or better, but there are some who are happy to get less, so 2’s is just where I feel happy, adjust that figure to suit yourself…..
This ties in with the earlier post about not discarding odds on shots…. I like doubles best cos there no pressure, but you can roll on to three or four times if the odds so dictate….. two winners at 1.70 will give you 2/1….. as will three winners at 1.45…. I find this form of betting invaluable at Footy, baseball, Roulette and the Xgames, there is no other way to bet in these circumstances IMO, I have many many runs of two in a row at even money bets of roulette and I find baseball a bit of a doddle….. betting on the horses is a different kettle of fish and a lot harder, horses are my least favoured form of making a profit and that’s another reason that I don’t frequent this forum as much as I did 10 years ago…. you lot are mainly horse race betting and I’ve moved on although I do still play the gg’s…. I don’t think you can ever tear yourself away totally….. but the profit is in other fields….. back to MERD’s….. if your selections are ABCDEF etc. your bets will be AB, BC, CD, DE, EF….. the roll is continuous, if the two bets don’t get you 2/1, then roll on until it does…. paper trade this for awhile, you’ll end up with a smile as wide as the Severn Estuary….. so the only thing left for you to do is to find the selection process that is infallible….. mmmm…. tipsters perhaps….. if you find the answer to infallible sources of selections, pop back on here and tell us, I for one can do with some help…..

MrE

[billion]

Oh dear

MrE

there really is no requirement to defend yourself against a little fun prodding, unless you are starting to get tetchy in your dotage

Maybe it is the gout

Joshing to one side – the odds on selections were put to one side because I was taking

Chuckypud

‘s figures at face value.

However, would you therefore suggest to continue as suggested with 1/1 – 2/1 selections but then run the odds on choices as rolling doubles?

Always inspired by your replies

Billy's Outback Shack

[Author]

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