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No disrespect but I think that’s a terrible comparison.
Kauto Star put up an Arkle type performance last year. He had VPE in serious trouble by the pond fence and could have beaten him much further.
I would think it perfectly possible that VPE put up a faster time this year than he did last year in the race, Didn’t Kauto beat him much further? yet this young horse has still bettered him. Plus my eyes tell me he is simply a classier animal.
Anyway IMO times should only be used from the 2nd last to the winning post and within 24 hours to compare if no change in going……it gives you amore accurate lime on how fast a horse can finish……..the rest just isn’t worth taking into consideration…..unless something special has knocked 5 to 10 seconds of a course record……..races are run way too differently to be be using times to judge perforamances……a slow pace can knock a lot of seconds of the time of a race
No probs DJ and I can see where your coming from David, it’s the difference in ground that i’m trying to point out
I’m just not convinced we saw VPE run to anywhere near his best, nor am i convinced we saw Monets run anywhere near his best, nor am i convinced a 22 run Chaser can improve almost a stone
I like winner, he’s an exciting prospect, but the above worries me a tad, thats all
I think Twist Magic is too short for the Champion Chase. I agree with you Voy Por Ustedes ran to a similar mark as on his seasonal reappearance which is about ten pounds below his best. Monet’s Garden wasn’t suited by conditions and ran well below his best, Twist Magic ran to probably his novice form. He could make up into a Champion Chaser but I’m not convinced he’s good enough yet and he shouldn’t be the price he is IMO.
Voy Por Ustedes seems a bit out of form at the moment. He is capabe of much better and he still sets the benchmark at two miles which I agree with a couple of others isn’t the strongest division at the moment.
The one thing that puts me off getting stuck right in, is some of Kings horses aren’t exactly firing on all cylinders whereas PN can do no wrong at the moment.
Wish I hadn’t started thinking about it now and just bet the horse……have to sleep on this one and you no what they say…..when in doubt……….I have forgotten but they say something
Nobody find Hoo La Baloo’s run and finishing position a tad suspect??
Hoo La’s position has me thinking VPE and Monets were not seen at anywhere near their best today
HLB may have had plenty of runs but is only a 6yo and has been showing generally progressive form in his seven runs since last April, so I see no reason to doubt he’s improved again. That said I believe both VPU and MG ran a fair way below form (former over-rated anyway, latter a poor box-traveller and over too short a trip, as it transpired) and TM continued his progression, though the improvement is nothing to get carried away about and I wouldn’t be in the slightest bit interested in ~3.0 for the CC at this early stage: My Way De Solzen at ~11.0 with-a-run, fill yer boots!
For what it’s worth my – as usual conservative – estimate for yesterday’s race and the discrepancy from OR would be:
TM 162+ +4
VPU 159 -10
MG 155 -11
HLB 155 +4As others have mentioned hardly a vintage crop of two-milers, based on the above anyway.
HLB may have had plenty of runs but is only a 6yo and has been showing generally progressive form in his seven runs since last April, so I see no reason to doubt he’s improved again. That said I believe both VPU and MG ran a fair way below form (former over-rated anyway, latter a poor box-traveller and over too short a trip, as it transpired) and TM continued his progression, though the improvement is nothing to get carried away about and I wouldn’t be in the slightest bit interested in ~3.0 for the CC at this early stage: My Way De Solzen at ~11.0 with-a-run, fill yer boots!
For what it’s worth my – as usual conservative – estimate for yesterday’s race and the discrepancy from OR would be:
TM 162+ +4
VPU 159 -10
MG 155 -11
HLB 155 +4As others have mentioned hardly a vintage crop of two-milers, based on the above anyway.
Drone
Though i think HLB may be flattered by his position, a 4lb improvement is not beyond the realms of possibility and i think your assessment is probably a fair one
Of course it may not be significant, but there was each-way money for Hoo La Baloo before the race. If this was a genuine market move then an improved performance must have been expected by someone.
It is perhaps fair to assume, using My Way De Solzen as an example, that Voy Por Eustedes will have needed the run and with Monet’s Garden running over a distance shorter than his optimum, perhaps Twist Magic hasn’t acheived quite as much as it looks. But it was a very impressive performance and there must be loads of improvement to come.
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RPR has given Hoo La Baloo a 159 for yesterday, only 1lb more than for his 2nd to Iron Man. Twist Magic he has on 170, which I would say is pretty close to his true mark, a mark he should improve on.
VPU ran fairly close to his best, a point supported by his trainer’s remarks after the race.
I doubt there is much point in comparisons with last year’s time, unless one assumes an even pace and an accurate going alllowance in both races, which is too many assumptions for an accurate assessment imo.reet
If HLB is 8lb or more ahead of the handicapper he shouldn’t need mistakes from opposition to win Class 2 handicaps should he???
Magic Sky
A case of HOO LA BALOO jumping the final fence in this handicap chase and Magic Sky failing to do so cleanly when looking as if he would probably have won
Lennon
A cracking finish to a decent little handicap, but not form to take too literally as the complexion of the race changed dramatically at the final fence, where front-running Lennon, who was three or four lengths clear and with the race sewn up, went left yet again and made a mistake that cost him the race
The official handicapper has HLB’s measure imo and i’m not even sure why he’s put him up to 151 as both these races and his overall form probably show he had his measure at 145
Though comments by connections are interesting, I treat them like i would any stable info and that is to pinch this from one Alan Potts
The opinions of jockeys and trainers can be dismissed immediately
Though i may not agree with it, just like you may not agree with mine, i sooner take on board the race analysis of reet hard , David Johnson, Drone, Prufrock, Flash, FoF etc, etc
Like many of you on here, Hoo La Baloo is what is causing me to be wary of the form of this race. during the summer nicholls said he was very badly handicapped and was struggling to win off his mark. He then became one of the luckiest handicappers around being given 2 wins when he looked booked for 2nd.
IMO HLB is a fully exposed handicapper, who to be fair does love sandown, but why on earth was he so close to the principles if TM, VPU and MG ran to form?
TM and HLB ran cracking races, VPU and MG well below pa, possibly VPU run at cheltenham in the mud took more out of him than king thought- Total Posts 17716
Dave22
HLB was undoubtedly fortunate when Lennon capsized but I wouldn’t be too sure about the Magic Sky race, despite what the RP analyst says.
The horse had been under pressure for some time when he made his blunder, and the only reason he got near to HLB again was the latter being eased with the race in the bag.
HLB also ran well in his previous race, a valuable handicap over a distance well in excess of his best, so it might not be so cut and dried?The official view is that the first and fourth have improved – Twist Magic has been raised 15lbs to a mark of 173, 4lbs higher than VPU.
HLB has been raised by 7lbs to 158.
VPU and Monets Garden are unchanged.
Oneway and River City both dropped 8lbs, Ashley Brook 6lbs.
AP
173 sounds quite high to me, promising though Twist Magic is. My feeling is that VPU has just been slightly overrated as a horse in general.
173 sounds quite high to me, promising though Twist Magic is. My feeling is that VPU has just been slightly overrated as a horse in general.
Over-rated on official rating or just in general? ? ?
I have often thought that Voy Por has never recieved the praise that he should have, in the past.
Thanks for those AP, interesting view taken by the BHB handicappers and interesting Topspeed has upped the rating from an original 164 to 168
Both KS. He is a very good horse, but no superstar imo.
Thanks.
I would agree.
I personally am a massive fan of his, i love the Alan King yard and the horses he has, they are great. Voy Por has been under-rated in the past in my opinion, but like you say, i dont think he possibly has what it takes to be a superstar.
Timeform have taken a dim view of the Tingle Creek. Don’t think they’d thank me for giving specifics on a public board but knocking 10 off the RPRs of the principals wouldn’t be far off the mark.
Timeform have taken a dim view of the Tingle Creek. Don’t think they’d thank me for giving specifics on a public board but knocking 10 off the RPRs of the principals wouldn’t be far off the mark.
Read Weekend View on website and got feeling the boys at Timeform Towers were not that impressed
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