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Re-opened after just 10 entries.
If you fancy Sceau Royal or Saint Calvados, suggest you back him now whilst there’s still three places!
I get so nervous before Altior runs, even though I don’t back him. Hopefully he wins here!
Be interesting to see which of his trio Mullins sends over. One thing’s for certain: there’ll be plenty of pace on with Great Field, Gino Trail, Speredek, Special Tiara and Saint Calvados all in the field- should suit the hold up performers like Altior and Sceau Royal.
Wouldn’t count on any of Mullins lot coming over as they have plenty of options (John Durkan, Hilly Way & Sugar Paddy Chase) on home soil – but with all those front runners it could be a right old burn up and a hold your breath moment going to the first.
O’Connell group twitter account posting pictures of the weather forecast for Sandown and praising the rain! Would love Un De Sceax to come here if it is soft. I know he gets crabbed a bit by some but he’s a fantastic horse for me and would be a great test for Altior first time out.
I just hope Willie does send one over!!
I also hope Mullins will send one over. Possibly Great Field? I think Un des Sceaux will go to Cork and Min to the John Durkam. It won’t matter though, Altior will storm up the hill.
Would have liked to have seen the defending champion, but that was a pipe dream given Nicholls’ intentions. Altior wasn’t quite at his best round this course in April so I might be willing to take him on. Sceau Royal would appear the most logical opponent. Electric round here last year and has advantage of race fitness. At bigger prices Min would be hugely interesting at 20/1. Surely that price indicates he’s going elsewhere though?
Just blogged:
A cracking entry for the Tingle Creek on Saturday December 9th at Sandown, although the race was reopened before reaching its current total of 10 entrants.
Understandably, all will be running scared of the magnificent Altior who will win this if turning up in top form and having a trouble free round. But I suspect that come the day there might be just five or six runners in all.
Mullins has three entries – Min, Un De Sceaux and Great Field – but each of them have other entries over the weekend and I’m not so sure Mullins will relish taking on Altior anymore than the other trainers will.
The going will play its part and I just wonder if Sceau Royal, a horse I like immensely, will be allowed to take his chance if the ground is really soft. Andrew Cooper, clerk of the course at Sandown expects the track to be riding ‘at the softer end of the going scale’, and, if the weather forecast is correct, the ground will be at least soft imo.
Sceau Royal has won in easy ground but such going can blunt his zestful, confident fencing. Having said that, he has no other current entries and I expect to see him there.
Saint Calvados, who would have taken Footpad’s scalp had that one not fallen last time, will get his ground and I can see him turning up. But he will be underpriced, I think. Footpad simply didn’t run his race last time (suffered an over-reach, possibly early in the race) and, on ratings, Saint Calvados was well entitled to beat the others the way he did.
He smashed his way onto the scene with an electric display of front running at Warwick last season and I’m not so sure the value of that form holds up. Saint Calvados was well beaten at the festival although he went hell for leather until running out of steam at the top of the hill.
If Un De Sceaux turned up in a big enough field, I’d happily back him each way. But by the time Mullins has decided, the field size will be quite a bit smaller, I think, destroying the each way value. And Un De Sceaux has two other entries over the weekend, both at home.
Special Tiara, Gino Trail and God’s Own (now that one has caused me some heartache!) are arguably past it now in this grade. And that leaves Speredek.
Regular punters will remember Speredek for his running style alone. He blazes off in front and, after four fences at Ascot last time out, had a big field of chasers strung out like post-race festival goers making their weary way home.
He was caught on the run in by Caid Du Lin to whom he was giving 12lbs. He matched his best Racing Post Rating that day of 161, achieved last January when 2nd to Un De Sceaux.
The going is a vital factor for Speredek too; he needs it soft and he prefers going right handed (he is 2 from 3 at Sandown). He has an entry at Huntingdon on Sunday over half a mile farther (also right handed), but if the BBC weather forecast is correct, he is much more likely to get his ground at Sandown where finishing 2nd will net connections just £6,000 short of finishing 1st at Huntingdon.
So, there is the reasoning; he is likely to turn up, likely to get his ground, the anticipated small field will make it easier for him to hold on and get a place in the first three, garnering a payout at 10/1 for the place part of your bet. And if for any reason Altior doesn’t turn up or run to form, you’ll have even more fun watching Speredek.
The race will be worth watching for Altior alone. He has looked to be running ever more lazily, almost as though he is bored with the business of two-mile chasing (I’d love to see him in the King George). His jockey Nico De Boinville claims his Queen Mother Champion Chase run in March (he traded at over 7/1 in running) was on the worst ground the horse has faced, and that he hated it. But Altior was a little tardy the previous time at Newbury and arguably worse than he was at Cheltenham when winning his final race of the season at Sandown.
It’ll be fascinating to see how he runs here, especially behind such a scorching pacemaker as Speredek. Saint Calvados also likes to make all, but I think they’ll submit to Speredek from the start to avoid another gun battle over the first half dozen.
If you decide to have an each way bet, be careful that your chosen bookmakers offers 1/5th odds the first 3. A few are offering first two only in anticipation of a small field.
I was having a think about that. Footpad, Great Field, Min and Un de Sceaux are all available to get going this weekend. Punchestown and Sandown look like the going will be Good and Cork looks Soft. That would mean UDS to the Hillyway in Cork. That means there’s the John Durkan and Tingle Creek as the only suitable races for the rest. Footpad was supposed to go to The John Durkan and if he got over the few smacks he got on the leg in his loss to Saint Calvados then he should linenout there. Kemboy could join him as could a number of others. Would love to see Willie send Min or Great Field to Sandown but not sure he’ll want them losing to Altior
Ground is the issue for Sceau Royal for me, as of midday today the chase course is good to soft (soft in places) and it probably wouldn’t take much to turn it soft all round and that would blunt his main weapon…..his speed.
The likely speed duel up front could play into the hold up horses hands (assuming they can keep tabs on them) but Altior will need to be pretty straight fitness wise first time out and I will be interested to see if he hits that flat spot like he did at Cheltenham.
Role on Saturday.
Vautour i’d be surprised if Footpad is out this weekend as he’s not entered in the JD.
Judging by the odds it’ll be Min+ a few others in the JD.
Great Field is heavy odds on for the Hillyway probably based on the quotes that UDS is likely to go to Sandown.
I wouldn’t have thought the forecast rain for Sandown would make it proper soft ground, but is anywhere going to be proper soft by Sat/Sund?
Interesting Joe your quotes from the clerk of course, perhaps it will be soft!Great Field- Hillyway
UDS- here
Min- JDThat seems the likeliest runners at this stage i’d say.
UDS needs to go from the front but so does SC, and even Speredek, if running…..easily sets up for a finisher…..wonder who that will be.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Most of the firms seem to be sticking to 3 Places here, so I will go for 33/1 each way on Special Tiara. I’d love one more big run from the old boy.
Looks like UDS owner’s want to run in this!!
Wonder what Willie will say !!
Even Ricci bows to him so if Willie says no then UDS wont run here!!
But who knows what goes on there!! It is like some secret society at Cullampton!!Terrific race summing up Joe
I’d love to see Great Field run in this, I waited most of last season
to see him. He’s had his problems, but when he eventually reappeared at Navan in March,
and considering he had been off for a year, he looked great. I think he’s the next big
thing, he doesn’t appear in the bookmakers “to win any race” at the Festival market,
but if I could get a decent price on that I’d jump in with both feet. I’m not sure where
he will head, QMChampion Chase, possibly the Ryanair. I doubt he will head Gold Cup this
year, but I think he could end up there next year, I think he will be better over further
than he’s taken on so far (2m2f). I’m looking forward to this, but it’s a no betting race
for me, I can’t see anything that’s likely to be left in after the final decs getting near
Altior. He’s an absolute machine Thanks, Graham.
A word of caution, perhaps, on Great Field. His only trip outside Ireland was to Cheltenham in 2016 where he pulled up. The following year, after he won at Leopardstown, when asked about the Arkle at Cheltenham, Mullins said, ‘I think I’d prefer to keep him at home.’
Things might have changed since then but it might be that he is not a good traveller.
On the other hand, UDS is a good traveller- stable was praising him for that after he travelled over and back for the Clarence House twice in a week a couple of seasons ago when it was postponed. If ground soft enough I can see Mullins letting the owners have their day out, especially since he’s knocking on and it might be his last season at the top.
In fact, if it’s really soft he might have a squeak at beating Altior.
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