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Sizing Europe should win this if at his very best, but I’m not convinced he will be. It’s seemed to me as though Sizing Europe jumps better the fewer horses are in front of him. With Dan Breen, Fix The Ribb, Kauto Stone, Tataniano and Wishful Thinking all usually prominent runners, it’s not certain Sizing Europe will be able to get his customary position. Then there’s the run last time. Horses take different time spans to recover, but this was a particularly hard race and I see nothing in Sizing Europe’s record to suggest he’s a quick recoverer. If it’s a gruelling race he hasn’t always found a great deal under pressure. I’d rather oppose him at current price of 7/4. 33% 2/1
Tataniano seemed on reappearance to be fulfilling novice promise. But the race hasn’t worked out. Second, Nomachecki well beaten in a handicap since and third Woolcombe Folly running well below his best next time behind Gauvain. If it became soft/heavy it might be against him. Reported earlier in the week to be Nicholls sole runner, but Kauto Stone now runs. Made just about all on both his good runs (the other at Aintree as a Novice). Whether he’ll be as enthusiastic a jumper if taken on in front, remains to be seen. 20% 4/1
Latter comment also applies to both
Wishful Thinking
and Kauto Stone, but their prices mean it may be worth taking a chance on them. Am convinced Wishful Thinking is top class, whether it is at this trip or further is questionable. Had it not been for his reappearance in the Paddy Power I’d say not. But travelled surprisingly well at the head of affairs there. Ran better than distance beaten suggests, set too strong a pace for his own good and not given a hard race once passed. Very well backed that day which indicates the stable believe he’s capable of improvement this term. Not that he needs to find much on his novice form to figure. Has jumped well from the front on all recent starts and may be he’s best in that role. Might not be able to get his own way, but at 5/1 is worth taking a chance. 20%
4/1
Kauto Stone
might not get his own way either, has tried to make virtually all in his last six starts. Impressive in winning only start for Nicholls at Down Royal on reappearance. Beating Roi Du Mee by 7½ lengths in Grade 2, 2½ mile race. Seemed to have plenty of pace, jumping very well and having a good deal in hand at the line. Needs to improve a good deal on that form, but only five and might be capable of doing so. If it turns in to a test of stamina at the trip it will be in his favour. Raced mainly on soft or heavy ground, but action is not of one who usually needs slow ground. Half brother won this before going on to even better over further. 7/1 is too big to ignore. 17%
5/1
Gauvain took advantage of his rivals poor showing at Cheltenham on reappearance. Led from some way out there, but doesn’t need to. Time wasn’t great and on all other known form looks exposed. Failed to go on last season after winning same race. Unless principles go too fast early, it’s difficult to see him getting involved. 4% 25/1
I’msingingtheblues has come up short in top company before. Won last time out, coming through to pick up the pieces as the front runners came back. Something which looks his best chance of success here. The one most likely to be dropped out here. Often travels well, finds little off the bridle and has seemed temperamental. 2.75% 33/1
Cornas ran well when second to Medermit at Exeter. But with both favourite and second fav failing, it wasn’t as good a race as it seemed beforehand. 2% 50/1
Dan Breen was well backed for a handicap on reappearance, didn’t get his usual prominent position and might have sulked. This won’t be the easiest race to go back to previous tactics. Seemed just below top class as a novice and probably has too much to find. 1% 100/1
Fix The Ribb isn’t good enough even on form of a couple of years ago. First race since injury (and long time off) last time. Didn’t show enough to presume a return to form. Rider usually at pains to lead and probably needs to to show best. Hope being a no hoper, they anchor him out the back. 0.2% 500/1
Since I wrote this write up the 5/1 Wishful Thinking has gone. 7/1 Kauto Stone won’t be long in following.
Value Is EverythingDidn’t say he was beaten by Kauto Stone?
What THM is talking about Zark, is your post at the top of this page. Sizing Europe did not race against Kauto Stone.
Value Is Everything2 from 8 since the Arkle (and one of those was down to Rubi Light falling), ran over 3 miles LTO on heavy ground, up against a very unexposed runner in Kauto Stone.
I’ll say it again – I didn’t say he was beaten by Kauto Stone. I was just listing reasons to oppose him at 7/4.
I have run the race through my computerised ratings/odds generation software.At the risk of becoming a laughing stock here are my top 5 rated with associated tissue odds (100% book):
Sizing Europe 11/4
Gauvain 11/4
Imsingingtheblues 7/2
Tatiano 8/1
Wishful Thinking 14/1This doesn’t look right does it as there must be serious doubts about Gauvain and (especially)Imsiningingtheblues having the class to win at this level. But I’ve learned from experience that the software is pretty good at identfiying overpriced horses. Last Saturday it had Carruthers and Great Endeavour as 11/4 favourites for the Hennessey and priced up Fair Along at 14/1 (Sorry about the aftertiming).
At the current prices I will be betting Gauvain and Imsinging each wayWe all take shots each at being the laughing stock on here but you may not be as far of the mark as some might think.
I find it a bit strange Wishful Thinking goes for this. Last season at Cheltenham PH made the choice to run Captain Chris in the QMCC and send Wishful Thinking over the longer trip for the Jewson.
PH hasn’t even bothered to run him over 2 miles now all of a sudden he’s thrown in at the deepend against the best 2 mile chaser in the UK
Looks more like the prize is worth chasing and taking a chance on, rather than them thinking the horse will benefit from a drop in trip.
Paul Nichols has stated he wants more rain for Kauto Stone but surely the 2m4f trip in the John Durkan would suit him much better and the fact he’s even considering switching shows a distinct lack of confidence in Tatatiano.
Kauto Stone was hugely impressive last time and he’d have a great chance in Ireland but taking on Sizing Europe at 2 miles in any ground is a huge ask.
Would come as no surprise to me if Imsingingthebues who got his head in front again at the 20th time of asking cause a big shock or if Gauvain were placed.
There’s too many ifs and buts about the would be main dangers to Sizing Europe to rule out either.
Why does Paul Nicholls get an extra declaration stage in comparison to the other trainers?
Its seems from his comments he declared Tataniano and KS with the expectation of running only one, and he now has full view of the opposition. Hopefully he will run both but if not a properly heavy fine should follow.Any trainer can do the same as long as they’ve given a good explanation beforehand Shabby. It’s not favouritism.
Value Is EverythingAny trainer can do the same as long as they’ve given a good explanation beforehand Shabby. It’s not favouritism.
Dont you mean that as long as he has created enough smoke, he can get away with a mild deception?
Tataniano taken out of Tingle Creek and is out for the season.
Value Is EverythingTataniano taken out of Tingle Creek and is out for the season.
Gutted, thought he was a banker.
Now weight fully thrown behind Wishful Thinking.
Only benefit is much better price to lay Sizing Europe at!
Is Wishfull Thinking up to it? Doubtful, I’d have thought. Shortest trip he’s run at is 2m 3f and Sandown isn’t exactly a stamina track. And given the rain Kauto Stone needed so much hasn’t yet arrived, it’s become a very difficult task to oppose Sizing Europe.
Would Kauto Stone be running if Tataniano hadn’t gotten injured? Hmmm.
Times today suggest to me the ground is softer than official Zark.
Value Is EverythingWhilst Sizing Europe is a better animal in the Spring on decent ground – particularly around Cheltenham – this isn’t exactly a vintage renewal of the Tingle Creek and he has nearly a stone in hand on of these on official ratings.
With the late defection of Tataniano, Wishfull Thinking and Kauto Stone lead the opposition, but neither of them are sure to appreciate this drop back to the minimum distance.
Wishfull Thinking has never competed, let alone won, over a distance short of two miles-four over fences, while Kauto Stone’s biggest triumph in his native country came over two miles-six.
Kauto Star’s baby brother produced some decent efforts over two miles-two as hurdler and is still something of an unknown quantity. As a mere 5YO on only his second start in this country, one could argue is open to any amount of improvement.
Gauvain disappointed after looking a potential star on his return at Cheltenham last year, and it’s hard to fancy him with any conviction after a similarly impressive display this season.
Cornas is the interesting one, in my opinion. His two runs at this venue last season both resulted in very solid efforts and he appeared as good as ever when reappearing in this sountry at Exeter in the Haldon Gold Cup. He ran a massive race against two high-class rivals in the shape of Captain Chris (unseated at the last) and Medermit that day, and a reproduction of that form against opposition with question marks hanging over them could see him reach the frame.
Versatile ground-wise, but with a slight preference for ease, he is a better animal on a right-handed track and Leighton Aspell, who guided him to victory over course and distance in January, is back in the saddle.
My idea of the 1 – 2 – 3
1 SIZING EUROPE
2 CORNAS
3 KAUTO STONEIf SE runs to his capabilities he will win it. Trouble is he had a desperately hard race last time – almost walking at the end. I think he wants better ground too than he’ll get.
Kauto Stone could be anything but I think there could be a scoop6-buster here in the shape of I’msingingtheblues who seems to be finally realising some of his early potential.
He ran a nice third at Cheltenham before pouncing late at Ascot to win a Class2 Hcap a couple of weeks back. He gave the runner-up Rileyev 23lbs and that one won a Class2 at Newbury last weekend.
He’s worth an EW I think
That last race seemed to be a pretty gruelling one for Sizing Europe in the mud against Quito De La Roque. Conditions should suit Kauto Stone, who could be anything, but think Wishful Thinking will appreciate the drop in trip. Can see Dickie Johnson making all and making it a true test of stamina.
Paul Nichols is full of surprises, can’t believe he’s running Kauto Stone.
His last race was on the same card as Sizing Europe and his time was much faster so I suppose he deserves a crack at it.
The fact it was a fast run race may indicate he’ll be fast enough at 2 miles. However he couldn’t have picked a tougher opponent than Sizing Europe .
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