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Anyone know if Petit Robin is a definite runner on Saturday?
Just wondering whether Barry Geraghty will be free to ride either Big Zeb or Forpadydeplasterer.
Not sure on riding plans, but looks very competitive if all the entries stand their ground.
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Crack Away Jack is the only real ponderable, but with his participation in doubt I’m more than happy to take 7/4 about Big Zeb.
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Doesn’t run he will be aimed at a 2m4f chase with a view to running in the Ryanair this season. At least that was the plan but with Master Minded out maybe Nicky will have a change of heart.
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Two ways of looking at Crack Away Jack’s entry. He was a far superior hurdler than Big Zeb and has jumped hundreds of fences at home and if he had a trouble free round could very well win.
The other way is to say Emma Lavelle is off her trolly to risk such a good horse at this stage of his career.
I wouldn’t be surprised if she did run him as he doesn’t take a lot of getting to peak fitness and she’ll be keen to run Kangaroo Court who’s also in the novice.
He had 3 races by December last season which I thought was one too many but he was spot on for Cheltenham so it wouldn’t be fair to critisize her
Sounds as if Miss Lavelle wants to get a race into her horse; wonder if he might run a bit too fresh and buzzy.
Sounds as if Miss Lavelle wants to get a race into her horse; wonder if he might run a bit too fresh and buzzy.
Needs to be fresh that’s for sure
I like the look of Barker at 12/1 in this. But won’t play until I hear Mullins say he is a certain runner and I also want to hear him say he is pretty fit. Am on him at 20/1 for the CC
I can’t believe layers have put Free World up at 33/1.
This has to be worth a EW punt. On his day he is going to win one of these quite comfortably….just wish he’d get his mind on the job!!!
I like the look of Barker at 12/1 in this. But won’t play until I hear Mullins say he is a certain runner and I also want to hear him say he is pretty fit. Am on him at 20/1 for the CC
BARKER:
“He could have started out in the Fortria Chase but I just wanted to give him a bit more time. He did very well last season and improved quite a lot but horses can do that sometimes. He’ll stay at home for the time being but we’re hoping that he could improve to be a genuine Champion Chase contender.”http://www.leinsterleader.ie/sport/Leinster-Leader-Stable-Tour-Willie.5836089.jp
He is in the John Durkan on Sunday but I’d say the Hilly Way at Cork the following weekend is the more likely target.
It may be a smart move running CRACK AWAY JACK. It would be a surprise if he were to win but he would learn more in this race than trouncing a field of Novice Chasers.
He could run in Novice Chase’s and beat them all out of sight then come ARKLE day find it all happening to quickly for him. Where as if they run him in the Tingle Creek he will have that experience under his belt and may serve him better when returning to the Novice ranks.
I’m Sure P Nicholls and H Johnson employed the same tactics over hurdles a few years back? Can’t remember the horses but think they ran in the Xmas Hurdle or something?
I like the look of Barker at 12/1 in this. But won’t play until I hear Mullins say he is a certain runner and I also want to hear him say he is pretty fit. Am on him at 20/1 for the CC
BARKER:
“He could have started out in the Fortria Chase but I just wanted to give him a bit more time. He did very well last season and improved quite a lot but horses can do that sometimes. He’ll stay at home for the time being but we’re hoping that he could improve to be a genuine Champion Chase contender.”http://www.leinsterleader.ie/sport/Leinster-Leader-Stable-Tour-Willie.5836089.jp
He is in the John Durkan on Sunday but I’d say the Hilly Way at Cork the following weekend is the more likely target.
The way he has been backed in the last 24 hours would suggest he might well go to Sandown, IC.
He was a standout 25/1 with Stan James yesterday, but his price collapsed all round throughout the afternoon. He’s no bigger than 12’s now, and as short as 7/1 with the Tote (who have been shortest about him from the outset).
I’m not saying he is a definite runner on Saturday, but it’s a big prize, and people have definitely been prepared to back him as if running is more or less a formality.
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The Tingle Creek comes at a time when most of the top 2 milers have had a run and are very fit. This decreases the chances of an upset 10fold and looking beyond Big Zeb, Well Chief and Twist Magic, taking it Crack Away jack doesn’t run, may be foolish
Big Zeb: Worthy favourite but Sandown’s railway fences must be a worry. He has a remarkably high cruising speed but he looked a real novice dummie at Cheltenham when he fell in the QMCC. You would like to think he knows better by now but bet on it? I think he’s brilliant but dumb as they come and can’t bring myself to back him, despite thinking he’ll win.
Fix the Rib is one outsider who could end make them all go in March. Yet to be tested in the big time but this is a right horse. Hopefully Moore won’t rush him and give this a miss.
Petit Robin Unless Nicky Henderson considers Master Minded’s withdrawal enough reason to run then he’ll miss this. He’s the type who could cause a shock if others were unfit. That’s not the case and he simply isn’t good enough, needs further and even with Nicky’s running so well wouldn’t win this if he set off now.
Forpadydeplasterer will strip much fitter than last time but he’s a bit of a betwixt and between horse. He’s not a true 2 miler IMO and these will prove to fast for him round here. Cheltenham 2 miles the perhaps but not here.
BarkerBe surprise if he turns up. I think Mullins must have entered him looking for luckies. He’s no more a two mile horse than I am and Even if Dr Vincent himself was training him he shouldn’t be a 10/1 shot.
Well Chief It’s very hard to judge whether he’s quite as good as he was but he has defiantly pushed the clock back against the odds and is right back in there fighting with the best of them. He actually looked like he had improved from Cheltenham last year which is remarkable. Sandown won’t bother him as all courses seem to come the same to him and he simply must go close.
Tidal Bay Very impressive Arkle winner who’s trainer has made a complete balls up of placing. He simply gave up on 2 miles after Master Minded thrashed him by 10 lengths in this last year and went chasing rainbows. I wouldn’t back him ew if he ran as he looked very fit at Aintree and this is a much better race.
Twist Magic is a bit of a job horse IMO. PN runs him at Cheltenham, among other places, miles off peak fitness then low and behold he trots up leaving the form book miles behind. Make no mistake he’ll have been trained to the minute for this in case anything went wrong with Master Minded plus the owners would be keen to take Master Minded on round here anyway. 3
Crack Away Jack: Too much too soon? She’ll know what’s most likely to run. She’ll be fully up to date on how PN rates his chances and will make her decision accordingly. I wouldn’t back him and I wouldn’t bet against him but it would be fascinating to watch how a top hurdles gets on against top chasers……..rather he kept it for the Arkle though
I can’t bring myself to backing any of the principals with any confidence. However I’ll be shocked if Well Chief isn’t in the first 3 so I’ll be heading for Betfair tooled up and grabbing what I can on place only.
It is a bit of a risk to run Crack Away Jack in such a race early in his jumping career, but if he’s good enough, he’s old enough.
People would have thought that Paul Nicholls was expecting too much of a novice, Big Fella Thanks, when he ran in the National, but ran a cracker and finished 6th.
Lavelle’s horse is a good one, with a lot of talent, i wouldn’t be suprised to see him line up here.
Big Zeb will have to tidy his jumping up if he is to get round on Saturday.
I have followed Twist magic as long as i have followed Denman and yet i misjudged him big time last Saturday!It all depends which Twisty turns up,but his record in this race is good enough to win!Forpadydeplasterer is yet again one of my Cheltenham Bankers,he is still the dark horse in this race but he must have good ground,he is more than capable of winning this,given his conditions!I have had to back both at 9/2 and 9/1 respectively!Big Zeb will struggle round Sandown and at 6/4, TAPK will be laying him!
Twist Magic is more in-and-out than Ron Jeremy, though he does like Sandown.
Still couldn’t have him.
I quite like the look of Paul Nicholl’s Free World.
I remember this time last year when Araldur from the yard came and beat him on the line, when he was sent off at 4/5 favourite.
Will be interesting to see the jockey booking for Free World, but i think he does represent value in the race.
Tidal Bay is another one who may represent a bit of value in the field. I do like the horse over 2 miles, although we all know that he has won over further and then competed at 3+ miles. 20/1 is freely available for the horse at the moment who ran a good race behind Master Minded in the same race last year.
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