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Now I am not a lover of Timeform as I find their ratings are not comparable to their analysis
Tomorrow at Ascot courtesy of the Sporting Life you can find their top 3 for evrey race and the analysis.
Well I wonder if someone can explainthe folowing to me.
150 Land of Vic 166
Caroles Spirit 165
dark Spirt 158.
Yet in their analysis they Bitofapuzzle is fancied to beat Carole’s Spirit.
Well that cannot be any closer thatn 8lb in the ratings yet is their pick
Double standards?Seen too much ‘analysis’ from Jim McGrath to take Timeform any more seriously than GDform!
Totally agree with Grey Dolphin about Jim Mcgrath, the guy is brilliant with stats, lineage, records etc. but anything he shows a liking for I cross that off my list immediately.
I had Timeform Prospective for several years and made a very heathly loss so no wonder they are partnering anyone in the business such as Betfair and ATR to promote more wealth to the enemy.Again the 1-15 race
1-15
Kings lad 155p
Vivaccio 146
Traffic Fluide 139p
Analyst’s Verdict:
Traffic Fluide
made
a winning start over fences in France in
October and shaped well when fourth in a
C&D Grade 2 last month. He gets the nod
in receipt of weight from all on handicap
debut. Recent Fontwell winner Kings Lad
should run well again despite a 12lb weight hike.Their pick is 16lbs behind on their ratings. Does the left not tell the right what is happening. How do they expect people to buy their product with a discrepancy like that.
Dont get me started on ‘Timeform’! I’ve said it for years,they basically prey on the weak minded.TAPK promotes thinking for oneself.Jim Mcgrath openly admits to some of his wagers that lose and you think ‘How the hell did you fancy that anyway’? In 30 yrs of betting I’ve never heard of a single Ante-Post Winner from Mcgrath,the guy who’s made Millions from robbing those who fall for the ‘Timeform’ patter.
Superform
was the best formbook available to the Racing public,far better judges wrote for them.
Ginge will be on in a minute……
Helps to get the facts right before criticising. Those ratings you’ve produced are the base figures unadjusted for the weight being carried.
So Traffic Fluide is the selection because he’s getting 17lbs from Kings Lad in this handicap.
Again the 1-15 race
1-15
Kings lad 155p
Vivaccio 146
Traffic Fluide 139p
Analyst’s Verdict:
Traffic Fluide
made
a winning start over fences in France in
October and shaped well when fourth in a
C&D Grade 2 last month. He gets the nod
in receipt of weight from all on handicap
debut. Recent Fontwell winner Kings Lad
should run well again despite a 12lb weight hike.Their pick is 16lbs behind on their ratings. Does the left not tell the right what is happening. How do they expect people to buy their product with a discrepancy like that.
You need to understand how Timeform work a race out. There’s a lot more to it than ratings.
Traffic Fluide is not 139p, it’s 139P.
A big "P" means "capable ofmuch
better form" than they are able to rate it. You can usually expect at least a 10 lbs better performance, but I can sometimes rate that figure as 15 or 20+ lbs depending on how enthusiastic they are. Where as had it been only a small "p" it’s only "likely to improve", so not thought likely to improve anywhere near as much as a big "P".
Traffic Fluide is lightly raced and lightly raced sorts can improve significantly. Three starts over hurdles and only two over fences in his life (one a win in France) and only one run for his current trainer Gary Moore. Quite a long way fourth when not expected to figure, starting at 33/1 in one of the best Novice Chases of the season, a grade 2 won by Petit Zig from Josses Hill. Despite a very good pace wasn’t far behind two out, not given a hard race once his chance had gone. We all know how lightly raced Gary Moore 33/1 shots can improve next time. Had he been fancied by this betting stable it would not have been a 33/1 shot. Traffic Fluide is also a Timeform "Horse In Focus" (one to consider next time out).
So although the form is not that great, there are a lot of reasons to expect him to run to a much higher rating this time.Betting for profit is not about backing the horse with the best chance of winning, it’s about backing the horse value to win. Timeform 1-2-3 has to come up with a decision on what is likely to be value without knowing the betting. An impossible task. Timeform’s betting forecast has Traffic Fluide @ 11/2 and at that price I’d certainly back it.
The favourite Kings Lad has also only had two runs over fences, but a lot more over hurdles. Won a race in good style last time and on the face of it looks well handicapped. With a twice raced animal there’s a probability of improvement (hence the "p), definately on the upgrade. However, the form is not easy to read, with several rivals making errors. Timeform’s commentary suggests you should be a little sceptical of its rating. He’d also got a soft lead out in front, jumping much better than his first try (unseated). With Clondaw Draft in the field as well as another couple who usually race at or near the pace – Kings Lad is unlikely to get his own way up front this time and how he’ll jump and therefore how likely he is to run to form – is questionable (even if the rating is accurate).
Value Is EverythingTotally agree with Grey Dolphin about Jim Mcgrath, the guy is brilliant with stats, lineage, records etc. but anything he shows a liking for I cross that off my list immediately.
I had Timeform Prospective for several years and made a very heathly loss so no wonder they are partnering anyone in the business such as Betfair and ATR to promote more wealth to the enemy.Have you ever thought Blue, it was you who is incapable of evaluating form in to chance?
Value Is EverythingTAPK promotes thinking for oneself.
And it shows in the minus column.
Value Is EverythingTotally agree with Grey Dolphin about Jim Mcgrath, the guy is brilliant with stats, lineage, records etc. but anything he shows a liking for I cross that off my list immediately.
I had Timeform Prospective for several years and made a very heathly loss so no wonder they are partnering anyone in the business such as Betfair and ATR to promote more wealth to the enemy.Have you ever thought Blue, it was you who is incapable of evaluating form in to chance?
No Ginge that’s what I was paying THEM for.
Totally agree with Grey Dolphin about Jim Mcgrath, the guy is brilliant with stats, lineage, records etc. but anything he shows a liking for I cross that off my list immediately.
I had Timeform Prospective for several years and made a very heathly loss so no wonder they are partnering anyone in the business such as Betfair and ATR to promote more wealth to the enemy.Have you ever thought Blue, it was you who is incapable of evaluating form in to chance?
No Ginge that’s what I was paying THEM for.
Eh?Timeform Perspective never gave a tip. It allowed the punter to come to his/her own opinion of what was a good (value) bet.
Did you not take any notice of the blue (or pink for flat) sheet towards the begining of each folder showing the Table Of Odds And Chances?
If not, you had almost no chance of making a profit, no wonder you made a "healthy loss".
Not Timeform’s fault at all.I had Timeform Perspective for many years and made a healthy profit. Although Timeform Race Passes is now far better than Perspective.
Value Is EverythingNow I am not a lover of Timeform as I find their ratings are not comparable to their analysis
Tomorrow at Ascot courtesy of the Sporting Life you can find their top 3 for evrey race and the analysis.
Well I wonder if someone can explainthe folowing to me.
150 Land of Vic 166
Caroles Spirit 165
dark Spirt 158.
Yet in their analysis they Bitofapuzzle is fancied to beat Carole’s Spirit.
Well that cannot be any closer thatn 8lb in the ratings yet is their pick
Double standards?Bitofapuzzle is improving and will beat Carole’s Spirit.
Carole’s Spirit has never been within 20 seconds of RP Standard ( apart from Haydock on 21/12/2013 – where there was drolling or a wrong racing distance ! ) I would put Carole’s Spirit slowest of the 3 on recent times.This analysis is based on time – Carole’s Spirit is the class runner tho’.
Now I am not a lover of Timeform as I find their ratings are not comparable to their analysis
Tomorrow at Ascot courtesy of the Sporting Life you can find their top 3 for evrey race and the analysis.
Well I wonder if someone can explainthe folowing to me.
1:50
Land of Vic 166
Caroles Spirit 165
Dark Spirt 158.
Bitofapuzzle 150p
Yet in their analysis they Bitofapuzzle is fancied to beat Carole’s Spirit.
Well that cannot be any closer thatn 8lb in the ratings yet is their pick
Double standards?Again, there are reasons to oppose Caroles Spirit. Is she value/likely to be value? Appeared to improve on reappearance when making all. But when the tapes went up they walked, nobody wanted to lead. Jacob eventually went on on CS and pinched around a 12 lengths advantage with very little effort. With that one performance rated a lot better than the rest of Caroles Spirit’s other races… Although there’s a chance is still improving and has definately got the best chance of all of them – is apposable at likely (now known) odds.
Like the George Moore horse, Harry Fry’s Bitofapuzzle is very lightly raced, only two hurdles starts and although only has a small "p" could improve more than most "p" horses. If progressing around the same amount as last time is in with a good shout. Stable in terrific form too. I’ve backed her at around 9/2 but my biggest bet is…
Land Of Vic also appeared to improve last time in a slowly run race (slightly suspect form) is a much greater price than Caroles Spirit and imo worth backing at around 11/2. Trainer is in reasonable form.
With Caroles Spirit such poor value it has made imo three horses value. The third, I’ve had a saver on at around 15/2. Dark Spirit, from another in form trainer Evan Williams. DS is a consistent, progressive mare.
The three horses combined prices 11/2 + 9/2 + 15/2 works out at around 6/5 45% about what I make a fair 5/6 55% chance.
Value Is EverythingHave to agree eith TAPK.
Superform was better class subscribed right up to their end. What a shame they are no longer aroundCan someone explain this conundrum then.
My original post showed Land of Vic reated 1 lb in front on Timeform ratings.
From the Sporting Life
"To celebrate our new Timeform Shortlist service, their jumps editor Dan Barber previews Sprinter Sacre’s return at Ascot.
Ascot also features some familiar faces in the Grade Two OLBG Mares’ Hurdle.
Carole’s Spirit is Timeform top-rated.Gee they have it every way. Why not just pick every horse.
I would guess the value with Timeform is avoiding doing your own ratings (a pretty mammoth task unless specialising) and benefiting from them having assessed every horse’s characteristics (again, virtually impossible for a one-man band unless you specialise).
I’d be happy enough to use RP ratings (is there any formal comparison over whether they or TF are the more accurate, based on ratings vs results?) so wouldn’t necessarily pay for their ratings.
I think their comments can be helpful but if I am having a serious bet I would do my own homework (usually, see ‘your top 3 punting downfalls’ thread for exceptions!).
Like any commercial service they are going to market themselves as positively as possible but they ALWAYS have at least two running for them in that regard (they often used to, and I expect still do, cite their ‘top-two rated’ results in adverts) and often more.
If you are using an info service I’d ask yourself why (lack of time to do it yourself, don’t have enough in-depth knowledge of everything, want to enhance your own analysis with other opinion, laziness, better results than your own (always test against yourself), etc, etc). It depends on what you want out of your betting too. For many it is the analytical part of ‘the game’ that is absorbing and fun, for others they just want the excitement of having a bet and are quite happy to have someone else do the ‘boring’ bit.
Helps to get the facts right before criticising. Those ratings you’ve produced are the base figures unadjusted for the weight being carried.
So Traffic Fluide is the selection because he’s getting 17lbs from Kings Lad in this handicap.
The information panel states…..
"Key
Top Rated: Indicates the highest-rated runners in the race, adjusted for the weight carried. Only the top three in each race are shown (horses with Rating Symbols are prioritised)."
So it looks like the ratings ARE weight adjusted !
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