- This topic has 22 replies, 11 voices, and was last updated 18 years ago by
.
- Posts
In the run up to the guineas I have been fairly vocal in my support for Muthabara, Ravens Pass and Spacious. However, all three of those are IMO gd-fm horses, as I was expecting, now with the ground looking like being nowhere near Gd-Fm for the guineas I think it is definitely time to reassess.
Muthabara hasn’t went to plan as she is still holding on to her coat, and although she won on more testing ground I dont think it is optimal for her. She may still be able to get involved but cant be too confident as things stand.
Spacious has now reportedly lost her winter coat, but she is a top of the ground horse and cannot be relied upon on the ground that is now looking most likely.
Ravens Pass wants Gd-Fm to be able to command at 1 mile and on any worse he is vulnerable, he was outstayed by Twice Over on what looked like more testing than good ground, and with New Approach likely to attempt to outstay him here it will probably work in New Approaches Favour. Am a bit gutted with Ravens pass because was waiting for Gd-Fm to get a decent bet on Ravens Pass and on Gd-Fm I think he would have been a banker, but if he fails and then gets gd-fm at ascot then he may be an even better price. There is still a chance that ravens pass could win as we dont really know what shape New Approach is in, but his price on this ground is far too short.
There arent many other options in the 2000 guineas now that can be backed with any real confidence IMO. The two possibly suited best to it may be New Approach and possibly Ibn Khaldun (If Fast Company was there I would be backing him). At the prices as they stand it has become very much a spectating race.
For me as the ground stands at present the 1,000 has value written all over it through Aiden O’briens entries who have jsut been waiting for this ground.
<b>Savethisdanceforme</b> must be in with a huge shout on form and everything has dropped right for her, on this ground I make her the one to beat at 10-1. When you look at her form and then look at infallibles and look at the difference in price she is certainly the value bet. It is also a positive sign to see that a fair old gamble has went down on her today.However Kitty Matcham (who at a serious pace would probably be the strongest challenger in the last furlong) and Halfway To Heaven are also in with a decent enough chance and cannot be written off. Also Pslam who didtn have an ideal prep race having lost her saddle, but has been reported as perhaps going to the Pouliches.
Now AOB is looking very strong handed to win the 1000 from one of those contenders.
Another aspect of the 1000 guineas is that at present (due purely to the ground we have been having so far this season) Danehill Dancer and Pivotal are sat £100,000 clear of any challengers in the Britain and Ireland Sires rankings, and although they will eventually be overtaken a result on sunday would send one of those two well clear, and with Danehill Dancer currently being one of Coolmores more expensive sires, they would love to see him dominating the Sires table with a winner of one of the first two classics under his belt, even for just a short spell. Savethisdanceforme would be a double result for coolmore.
You describe Spacious as a "top of the ground horse" on very flimsy evidence indeed. Her trainer pointed out on ATR that her impressive debut win was on good to soft. He expressed no worries about the ground at the weekend provided it wasn’t holding.
You’re still behind the curve reacting to money rather than anticipating it. This filly was freely available at 20/1 a couple of weeks ago (see my Lays and Plays thread) when you were wittering on about your talking horse. Nothing has happened since except the market has become more efficient. Using your head to try and figure out what’s overpriced will serve you better than following the money.
You describe Spacious as a "top of the ground horse" on very flimsy evidence indeed. Her trainer pointed out on ATR that her impressive debut win was on good to soft. He expressed no worries about the ground at the weekend provided it wasn’t holding.
I have already backed Spacious for two points at 8-1 but IMO she is a top of the ground horse (Fanshawe has even said as much in the paper this week). Nayef is a sire who I am expecting to do well with his fillies this year and also followed him last year, but so far he has been doing terrible this season on this ground and the best performance by any of his has IMO been Comeback Queen on the All Weather, and indeed one of his (My Aunt Fanny) was chinned today at ascot despite looking well fancied (backed 18s into 7s). I dont pay too much attention to what ground horses can win at in low grade as a horse like spacious should be capable of winning an average maiden on any ground, just on pure class. I would love Spacious to get Nayef a classic win on the boards but am far from enthusiastic at present.
You’re also overreacting to a bit of rain. I’ll bet you doubles or quits on that fiver I owe you that the going will be good or better at the weekend- in fact it’ll be better than if they’d had to water.
Nayef is a sire who I am expecting to do well with his fillies this year and also followed him last year, but so far he has been doing terrible this season on this ground
I back horses not their pedigrees but it’s interesting that Nayef has sired 6 winners from 32 runners to date on good to soft or worse but only 3 from 38 on good or better. He acted very well himself on soft and even heavy ground.
You’re still behind the curve reacting to money rather than anticipating it. This filly was freely available at 20/1 a couple of weeks ago (see my Lays and Plays thread) when you were wittering on about your talking horse. Nothing has happened since except the market has become more efficient. Using your head to try and figure out what’s overpriced will serve you better than following the money.
The money isnt the Issue Carvs, the ground is the issue, I did say at the time a few weeks ago when there was a few on here who were opting for Savethisdanceforme that she would be one for me if the ground came up this way, but I always back for Gd-Fm in the 1000 guineas, mostly through my love of Mr P fillies at 1 mile and I will continue to do it that way. I dont bet expecting Gd-Soft at the start of May at Newmarket. So in my view getting 10-1 when I know that the ground is in her favour is equally as good as taking a chance on Gd-Soft at Newmarket at the Start of May at 20-1. Also, I dont have Muthabara written off completely yet, and in my view she is much more than a talking horse and although I would have liked to see her out of her winter coat before challenging the 1000 guineas she was far from disgraced with it still on at newbury.
A week or two ago you had Muthabara as a more-than-live contender, claiming an ordinary success at Newbury to be highly encouraging.
Why not just back the field to guarantee you a winner?
You’re also overreacting to a bit of rain. I’ll bet you doubles or quits on that fiver I owe you that the going will be good or better at the weekend- in fact it’ll be better than if they’d had to water.
The ground could come up good, but I dont see it beijng on the better side of good, it is good to soft in places at the minute with more rain forecast,
A week or two ago you had Muthabara as a more-than-live contender, claiming an ordinary success at Newbury to be highly encouraging.
Why not just back the field to guarantee you a winner?
I did say at the time though that it was encouraging bearing in mind that she was still in her winter coat, because with some warm weather she could be out of that by guineas day but she isnt.
It is not a case of backing everything it is a case of realising when things are not going the way you would wish in the run up to a race, you have a choice – be stubborn or cover yourself. Its that simple. And I know that having stuck by Numide going into Cheltenham that that is not your cup of tea but each to their own.
hi guys,
Why is it interesting that savethisdanceforme is standout 10/1 with ladbrokes, the magic sign.
james
It just is.
Salselon grumped about it, but I said I was preparing to follow a Ballydoyle runner into the 1,000 Guineas.
hi guys,
Why is it interesting that savethisdanceforme is standout 10/1 with ladbrokes, the magic sign.
james
Ladbrokes are "renowned" for having an insight into Ballydoyle which other bookies don’t.
It probably gets brought up more when they are right than when they are wrong but it has attained almost mythical status at this stage (espcecially on the Betfair forum)
I believe that they were also bigger/biggest about Jupiter Pluvius during the week as well (just to perpetuate the myth like!)
You’re also overreacting to a bit of rain. I’ll bet you doubles or quits on that fiver I owe you that the going will be good or better at the weekend- in fact it’ll be better than if they’d had to water.
The ground could come up good, but I dont see it beijng on the better side of good, it is good to soft in places at the minute with more rain forecast,
Going today is good/firm, reckon we’re quits Bulwark!
- Total Posts 17716
You’re also overreacting to a bit of rain. I’ll bet you doubles or quits on that fiver I owe you that the going will be good or better at the weekend- in fact it’ll be better than if they’d had to water.
The ground could come up good, but I dont see it beijng on the better side of good, it is good to soft in places at the minute with more rain forecast,
Going today is good/firm, reckon we’re quits Bulwark!
Given the brisk head-wind and the ordinary pace yesterday, the ground can’t have been any less than the ‘perfect good ground’ a number of jockeys described it as.
Fwiw, I don’t think Raven’s Pass would have troubled the first 2 at a mile even if it had been run on the M11.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.