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Few fancies for Thursday.
Couple of short-priced runners in La Boheme Salisbury 2.20 and Lunasea in the Newmarket 6.55. Cumani likes them both a lot.
Talmada is an each-way punt in the Middleton, but nothing confident.
The 2 horses I like the most though are Markabah in the Salisbury 3.25, way overpriced at 12s as a result of her missing the break on her debut, and I particularly like Zeb Un Nisa in the 4.20 at York. One of the only horses who successfully came off the pace at Sandown on April 24th and was very unlucky in-running. Arguably would have won with a clear run. Now pitched into a Listed event vs several 10x runners (including Tendu, runner-up to Limato) despite having a handicap mark of 90. Atzeni booked to ride – he and Charlton are 2/2. I think it’s an interesting entry. 20/1 with Ladbrokes.
Also laying Jack Hobbs. I think any of 5 horses could beat him and I expect them to. Old Man River my preferred winner, as I have 66s on him to win tomorrow and the Derby, but JFK wouldn’t be a horrible result for me either.
Also just seen that Ladbrokes are offering 100/1 Old Man River to win tomorrow and the Derby so will have a couple of quid on that to make up for the 34 points I missed out on
It’s interesting that both of those Cumani horses share the same owner Jon Kelly, I wonder if he will hop tail it to Newmarket following Salisbury! His other runner Optima Petamus runs in a race where Cumani has historically done well too, so perhaps a treble is on the cards…
I recall in Roger Varian’s stable tour last year that Talmada was highly rated, she looks a galloping sort so York may suit her more than Newmarket – could go to Ascot if she shows up well tomorrow. After winning with Ambivalent last year you wouldn’t bet against her. Bragging looks a smart type but the others don’t concern me that much. Buick an interesting booking also.
I don’t think I could back Ol Man River with any confidence following his run in the Guineas, I’m more inclined to side with JFK who clearly hated the soft ground at leopardstown last time. His full brother Tapestry seems better on faster going and I’m hoping the track will play to his strengths also.
In the maiden I’ve heard Blue Humor is decent, his brother Shumoos was a speedy type and the owners tend to like winners at York.
Good luck with your bets.
SC
Always expect the unexpected.
In the maiden I’ve heard Blue Humor is decent, his brother Shumoos was a speedy type and the owners tend to like winners at York.
Ryan’s run 5 2yos this year – 11233. But only has a record of 44538 in this race 2008-2014.
This race tends to throw up a solid horse – even better if trained in the north; Lord Shanakill and Parbold the recent examples. On that basis the only bet I’d do with any kind of confidence is to lay Seastrom, who ran in a dreadful 5f maiden LTO ridden by a very inexperienced jockey.
Don’t back Homage in the 3.45. Prep race.
Also have a look at Figment 7.25 Newmarket 4/1 BOG
Looks like a really bad race
Ah today’s a nightmare. So many really appealling backs and lays.
I’ve EW trixied O’Meara’s 3 older fancies at York today; Out Do, Fort Bastion and Saved By The Bell. His older horses are flying at the moment.
Varian’s are needing the run so I think Belle D’Or probably has a better chance in the Middleton than Talmada, though I’ve not backed either in singles, just EW Lucky 15s/31s.
And I think Lord Ben Stack wins the Dante. Burke won it a couple of years back with Libertarian at 33s despite having ran terribly in the Sandown Trial the time before. The form of the last race has worked out quite nicely and the 2nd Ooty Hill is very well regarded. Given question marks over most of the field (bar Elm Park and Golden Horn, perhaps?), I’ve backed at 90 and done the Dante-Derby double at 500s (breeding wise, foaling date wise and debut track wise, he fits all of the strong trends). Also done an EW double with Markabah, who’s my main fancy for today.
Nice start Zark! Well done!
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Cheers. O’Meara’s older horses running very well & Fort Bastion and Saved By The Bell both being backed. Talmada ran very well there, much better than expected. Will win NTO. Wasn’t convinced re. Bragging at all. Don’t think the Dahlia was a good race – Kleo in 2nd? Hmmm.
La Boheme got stuffed at Salisbury though so most of my life changing bets (all 10-50p multiples) dead
. Cruised but found nothing – ground seems very bad. Raadeh ran well as well FTO for Stoute – also found nothing. Wins NTO.Markabah very disappointing. At least the 2nd good horse to run badly. The ground there is just too bad to do anything I think.
Have laid Seastrom. Solid horses win this maiden, sometimes good horses. He isn’t either based on his debut & the conditions surrounding it.
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