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Just totted up a p/l:
With about €300 invested in Cheltenham already, the whole thread hinges on the festival. I’ve most of my betting done now at this stage, bar a few handicaps, and I won’t be betting too heavy in those so the p/l is unlikely to get too much worse in the next couple of weeks at any rate, considering I’ve already factored bets placed into my p/l. I’d be hoping next week will see me enter profit but you never know with this game. Win, lose or draw, it should be a great week.Update of ante-post bets (not including bets on Flemenstar, Go Native and Trifolium, which have no hope of any returns, and Rubi Light, who is a non runner). Those three bets add up to losses of €30.
———————————————————Supreme Novices Hurdle 2013
Un Atout
€10 win @ 33/1 (Paddy Power)
Current price: 6/1 – 7/1.
Been plenty of market confidence for this one and connections seem to go all quiet and hush hush whenever asked about him, replying as if in some vain hope that nobody will hear them
I think he’s a star.
———————————————————Arkle 2013
Arvika Ligeonniere
€10 e/w @ 10/1 (Totesport)
Current price: 7/1 – 8/1
Realistically, Simonsig looks like he’s going to be very hard to beat, but I’d be hoping Arvika will at least place.
———————————————————Champion Hurdle
Zarkandar
€15 e/w @ 9/2 (PP nrnb) Current price: 4/1 – 9/2
Only placed the bet last week so the price has changed much. I feel like a turncoat deserting The Fly but I feel Zarkandar has what it takes to turn him over. If the race was run at Leopardstown or Punchestown I think The Fly would win but I have a nagging doubt that he’s not himself at Cheltenham. Zarkandar has had a perfect prep and should The Fly beat him I’ll get my money back.
———————————————————Centenary Novice Chase
Carlito Brigante
€10 e/w @ 10/1 (WH) Current price: 6/1 – 8/1
There are dangers aplenty here, not least stable mate Toner D’Oudaries who must surely go elsewhere (I’d fancy him anywhere). However, Carlito looks to have been given a perfect prep for this and I’m certain he’s better than his mark.
———————————————————Neptune Novice Hurdle 2013
Champagne Fever
€10 e/w @ 7/1 (Paddy Power)
Current price: 8/1 – 12/1
Looks a doubtful starter as connections seem intent on avoiding Pont ALexandre. If Pont wasn’t in it then Champagne Fever would definitely run here imo. If they have a change of heart I’d still fancy him.
———————————————————Neptune Novice Hurdle 2013
Rule The World
€10 e/w @ 20/1 (Paddy Power) Current price: 8/1 – 10/1
A slip up from Paddy Power methinks rather than a brilliant piece of foresight from myself
Russel rates him as good as First Lieutenant when he won the Neptune but this may be a better race.
———————————————————RSA Chase 2013
Boston Bob
€10 e/w @ 10/1 (Totesport) Current price: 4/1 – 5/1
Still not confirmed for the race but if confirmed I think he will win
Flagged him up long ago and although my confidence wavered slightly when he wasn’t seen for a long spell I reckon he’ll be very hard to beat should he run. Dynaste has become very weak on Betfair and PP have now gone 5/1 NRNB Dynaste 
———————————————————RSA Chase 2013
Lyreen Legend
€5 e/w @ 40/1 (BetVictor nrfb) Current price: 16/1
Very very happy with this bet too. My first post in the RSA thread named Boston Bob, Lyreen Legend and Champagne Fever as horses I liked for the race and it’s nice to see the two that went over fences have the race in their sights now. Lyreen Legend is still too big imo, I don’t think he’ll be 16/1 on the day! He’s tough as nails and even Boston Bob will need to be on his A-Game to beat him
———————————————————Champion Chase 2013
Sizing Europe
€10 e/w @ 10/1 (Paddy Power)
Current price: 5/1 – 6/1
The Ryanair seems more likely at the moment. If he runs in the QM I’m confident he’ll place but nothing will beat Sprinter Sacre barring mishap.
———————————————————World Hurdle
Oscar Whisky
€15 e/w @ 4/1 (PP nrnb) Current price: 11/4 – 7/2
Another only recently backed, I feel he’s the best horse in the race and will stay based on his previous run. I’m afraid of Solwhit now that he’s been confirmed, as I previously thought he was going straight to Aintree. He’d be a big danger.
———————————————————Triumph Hurdle 2013
Our Conor
€10 e/w @ 6/1 (BetVictor nrfb) Current price: 3/1 – 4/1
Really impressed me at Leopardstown and looks streets ahead of the Irish. Seems to be a lot of confidence behind him although no form lines with the two English horses at the head of the market. Confident of a good run.
———————————————————Albert Bartlett 2013
Road To Riches
€10 e/w @ 20/1 (BetVictor nrfb) Current price: 11/1 – 14/1
Really like this horse: he’s a bus. What has impressed me is that although jockey’s have had to ask him for more, he always produces the goods, a bit like Sir Des Champs. It’s hard to know what he has left in the locker but to my eye it looks like a lot. His relaxed style of racing will stand him in good stead here.
———————————————————Gold Cup 2013
Sir Des Champs
€20 e/w @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes) Current price: 7/2 – 4/1
Love him to bits. He’s a big strapping sort who has improved with every run this season. We should see the best of him in the Gold Cup. I don’t know if he’ll beat Bobs Worth who I’ve masses of respect for but anything that beats Sir Desmond will need to be top class imo.
———————————————————Grand Annual
Kid Cassidy
€7.50 e/w @ 12/1 (PP nrnb) Current price: 8/1 – 10/1
Caught my eye since he was beaten in this race last year. Also like Alderwood, tough decision for Mr. McCoy!
———————————————————To Win Any Race At The Festival
First Lieutenant
€10 win @ 7/1 (Paddy Power) If and when he gets declared for the Ryanair I will be having more on. I’ve been banging on about running him in it for the whole season and I think it’s becoming likely this is where he’ll go. If they have him handy and ride him aggressively I’d make him banker material.
17.35 Gowran
Indevan
€20 win @ 11/8 (Boyles)Indevan (11/8) & Shariyan (11/8)
€10 double (Boyles)- €423.38
At the eleventh hour Mother Nature has thrown me a lifeline. If this snow keeps up there’s not a hope of me going on this field trip. Here’s hoping for a snowy night with freezing temperatures long into tomorrow…
Having spent the last two days on the road around the more remote regions of the west of Ireland (quite depressing any tiem of the year but in a different league this week
) it’s time to recap on the opening two days of the Cheltenham Festival. I’ve just spent the past hour watching replays and it’s time to give my tuppence worth. I haven’t been able to put my bets on here as I didn’t have internet access unfortunately, so I hope I’m not accused of the dreaded ‘A’ word.The Supreme Novices saw one of my big hopes
Un Atout
running, I expected a good run but was under no illusions regarding the quality of the field. It looked possibly the race of the festival on paper and it didn’t disappoint.
Venture To Cognac
will know I debated backing
Champagne fever
but ultimately was too stubborn to back him after I missed the 9/1 with Victor Chandler
My immediate reaction to the race was that My Tent Or Yours
and
Jezki
are great prospects for next year’s Champion Hurdle. Champagne Fever looks tailor made for next year’s Arkle while I still rate Un Atout as a great prospect for next season.
I supplemented my ante-post on
Arvika Ligeonniere
with a €20 double on
Simonsig
and Quevega. Arvika jumped super like I thought he could but he went out like a light after his only error. This obviously wasn’t his true running and you could make a case that he’d have been thereabouts on a line through
Baily Green
. I wasn’t that impressed with Simonsig. I thought he’d win well but he was pushed right to the line by Baily green, who ran a great race. He didn’t jump great so improvement can be expected if he gets his act together in that regard. What was regarded by many as a poor bunch of Irish novice chasers now look decent enough with reflection on the Arkle and RSA.
I said in the Big Races section that I fancied
White Star Line
to run a decent race in the 3 mile handicap chase and he duly did. I had a fiver e/w at 14/1 and at one stage he looked to be going best but could only keep on at one pace in 3rd.
I was quite happy to have backed
Zarkandar
with he
Hurricane Fly
concession. However, I was disappointed that he couldn’t manage a place. I also had a fiver on
Grandouet
with PP. He looked to be going well when he came down but it was too early to know what would have happened. i was absolutely thrilled to see hurricane Fly cement his position as the best of his generation and a truly great hurdler. I thought he was beaten after a mile but the way he came back into the race was truly scintillating. I felt almost guilty not backing him – how could I – but I thought he was vulnerable this week. thrilled to be proven wrong
Rock On Ruby
was another to prove me wrong. He ran a great race and looked the winner most of the way round.
Even though I had the double with Simonsig, I felt compelled to have my annual lump on
Quevega
in the Mares’, so I had another €30 at 4/6 (SP 8/11). The way she made up the ground from the second last was breath taking. She is a really astonishing mare and a lot of credit must go to Willie Mullins for getting her here 5 years on the trot.
I had
Carlito Brigante
in the last but his race was over as soon as he was hampered.
A fella asked me a couple of months ago for one ante post bet for Cheltenham. Would you believe I told him Back In Focus for the 4 Mile at 10/1 with NRFB with BetVictor, do you think I backed him myself? never mind, had €25 on him today at 5/2 which is better than a kick in the teeth.
Tofino Bay
ran a great race but Back in Focus does nothing but stay and he hauled him in on the run in (thank God).
I took advantage of a Paddy Power slip up when I backed
Rule The World
for the Neptune at 20/1 and if anybody was listening to Tony O’Hehir’s commentary on RTÉ radio you would have been getting very excited. Didn’t mention
The New One
until the last I don’t think
Still, a nice profit on the race. Ruby didn’t go quick enough on Pont Alexandre
. When I imagined the race beforehand I saw Pont a few lengths clear turning in with most of the field hard at it. However, he went so slow that it turned into a speed test, suiting the impressive winner.
The RSA is the race I most look forward to betting ante post in every year, ever since I backed Weapons Amnesty to win it. Since then, I’ve had Jessies Dream 2nd (16/1), First Lieutenant 2nd (20/1) and now
Lyreen Legend
2nd (40/1). What makes things worse was the fall of
Boston Bob
at the last, a horse who I mentioned to Gord and co. may months ago when he was a 10/1 shot. I think he would have won, while Lyreen ran a great race. Although the result was disappointing, I’ve taken some solace in that I feel as though I have a decent eye for a staying novice chaser, with the aforementioned group and Sir Des Champs backing this up. Already looking forward to finding next season’s RSA 2nd
I backed
Sizing Europe
for the Queen Mother long ago and was confident he’d place behind the beast that is
Sprinter Sacre
. Sizing hasn’t seemed quite as good this season but he ran an absolute cracker today, jumping brilliantly and winning the race for second with ease. However, Sprinter Sacre was truly awesome and is a joy to behold every time he runs. If he goes to Punchestown I will do my best to be in attendance.
I didn’t have a bet int he remaining three races and don’t have anything major to say on them!
I’m up €130 for the 2 days now, although the bulk of that wasn’t put up on here beforehand, so I hope you all believe me
Thanks VTC
I have a fancy for Catch Me in the Pertemps tomorrow but it might be harder than I thought for him off 5 lb higher than last year. I expect a good run but a win might be beyond him. Sam Winner commands respect but
Jetson
can go one better than his half brother Jezki did on Tuesday.
Pertemps Final
Jetson
€7.40 e/w @ 10/1 (Boyles)Jetson bet is €7.50 e/w
I’m with Darren on Aupcharlie, looked a serious horse when chinned by Back In Focus.
Jewson
Aupcharlie
€10 e/w @ 7/1 (BetVictor)Time to put my money where my mouth is with First Lieutenant, I think he’s a good thing.
Ryanair
First Lieutenant
€40 win @ 5/2 (Boyles)Byrne Plate
Ballynagour
€10 e/w @ 5/1 (BetVictor)The Irish novice staying chasers look a cut above ours over here Tommy, as proved with the 4 miler and RSA yesterday, nice form lines with Aupcharlie and Texas Jack.
Glad FL has turned up here, he’s my nap of the week.
Good luck.
Using the free bet I’ve received for the non participation to back Inish Island.
Albert Bartlett
Inish Island
€10 e/w @ 13/1 (BetVictor)Firstly I must say that my thoughts are with JT McNamara and his family and friends in what must be a terribly difficult time. It has really put the festival into perspective – the safety of the people and horses in involved is the most important thing by far.
—————————————————
Getting nervous now with Sir Des Champ’s time of reckoning less than 20 minutes away. The ground is cutting up and he won’t have regular pilot Davy Russell in the saddle, but nothing phases him and one can only hope McCoy will get on well with him. NAP of the day Salsify runs in the Foxhunters and it’ll be disappointing if he can’t do the business.€10 e/w double (PP)
Sir Des Champs 4/1
Salsify 3/1Firstly I must say that my thoughts are with JT McNamara and his family and friends in what must be a terribly difficult time. It has really put the festival into perspective – the safety of the people and horses in involved is the most important thing by far.
—————————————————
Getting nervous now with Sir Des Champ’s time of reckoning less than 20 minutes away. The ground is cutting up and he won’t have regular pilot Davy Russell in the saddle, but nothing phases him and one can only hope McCoy will get on well with him. NAP of the day Salsify runs in the Foxhunters and it’ll be disappointing if he can’t do the business.€10 e/w double (PP)
Sir Des Champs 4/1
Salsify 3/1
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