- This topic has 243 replies, 14 voices, and was last updated 11 years ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Update of ante-post bets (not including bets on Flemenstar, Go Native and Trifolium, which have no hope of any returns, and Rubi Light, who is a non runner). Those three bets add up to losses of €30.
Supreme Novices Hurdle 2013
Un Atout
€10 win @ 33/1 (Paddy Power)Arkle 2013
Arvika Ligeonniere
€10 e/w @ 10/1 (Totesport)Neptune Novice Hurdle 2013
Champagne Fever
€10 e/w @ 7/1 (Paddy Power)Neptune Novice Hurdle 2013
Rule The World
€10 e/w @ 20/1 (Paddy Power)Gold Cup 2013
Sir Des Champs
€20 e/w @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes)Champion Chase 2013
Sizing Europe
€10 e/w @ 10/1 (Paddy Power)RSA Chase 2013
Boston Bob
€10 e/w @ 10/1 (Totesport)RSA Chase 2013
Lyreen Legend
€5 e/w @ 40/1 (BetVictor nrfb)Triumph Hurdle 2013
Our Conor
€10 e/w @ 6/1 (BetVictor nrfb)Albert Bartlett 2013
Road To Riches
€10 e/w @ 20/1 (BetVictor nrfb)To Win Any Race At The Festival
First Lieutenant
€10 win @ 7/1 (Paddy Power)If Paddy Power are willing to offer 20/1 on
Rule The World
through Oddschecker, then I’m willing to take it. Maybe I’ll get pulled up on this but nothing ventured nothing gained.
Neptune Hurdle
Rule The World
€10 e/w @ 20/1 (PP)I flagged this up earlier on the Cheltenham Neptune thread, it’s been fluctuating 10/1 to 20/1 all day, very odd!
I’ve taken the 20/1, shouldn’t be any comeback if it’s there cock up?
These ante post bets that are still running add up to €210, so they take up most of my deficit. While I reasonably happy with them, there’s the problem that some of them may not run in the races I have backed them for (Champagne Fever, Boston Bob and Sizing Europe).
Novice Hurdlers
With my backing of
Rule The World
today, I now have a Gigginstown horse in each of the novice hurdles, and I’d be confident of a good run from all three. The one that excites me most is
Un Atout
. He has looked like a bus in his runs so far and has a nice blend of speed and stamina. I loved the way he powered away from the useful Rory O’Moore on the bridle last time out, and that one has since ran well in open company in the Red Mills Trial Hurdle at Gowran. If you take that form literally then Un Atout is one very smart animal. If it comes up soft I’d be very confident. Not that I think he needs it soft, but it might blunt the speed of some of the others, namely My Tent Or Yours. In the Neptune I’m on
Champagne Fever
and
Rule The World
. If Champagne Fever runs he’d be my pick of the two. I loved the way he did it last time out beating Bright New Dawn, he looks a stayer and he won the bumper last year. If he had different connections they wouldn’t even be thinking of the Supreme imo, but the Ricci’s own Pont ALexandre and Ballycasey also. If it comes up good I can see Pont going for the spud race with Champagne rocking up here. In that case I’d still be happy with 7/1. I thought everything fell into place for Rule The World last time out and wouldn’t back him at current general odds, but with Paddy Power making a boo boo I’m willing to get involved at 20/1. He won easily that day and Mouse obviously holds him in high regard. That’s good enough for me.
Road To Riches
is a horse that I really like. He’s not flashy but he keeps finding when he needs to, in much the same manner as one Sir Des Champs. The 20/1 about him has been gradually chipped away and I can see him being hammered closer to Cheltenham. I reckon he’s a serious horse. If he met Ballycasey in Ireland tomorrow does anyone think there’d be such a discrepancy in price? I make
Our Conor
the horse to beat in the Triumph. I was very impressed with his performance last time out where he dispatched a high class field with ease. He jumps well and showed good staying power that day, a necessary combination for a Triumph Hurdle. The Triumph Hurdle is coming to Ireland this year
Novice Chasers
A bit of mixed bag here, with
Arvika Ligeonniere
and
Boston Bob
both still holding Jewson entries. Arvika has done very little wrong imo: he’s a great jumper and just made a silly error last time out, more so stumbling on landing than actually falling. I can’t see him out of the frame in the Arkle and I think he could surprise the two big guns. I’ve been a Boston Bob man for a long time now and surely the RSA is the only race for him. Mullins lets on he thinks he’s a Jewson horse which I can’t have and I firmly believe we’ll see him in the RSA. All he does is stay and he’ll be 4/1 on the day imo.
Lyreen Legend
has been my dark horse for as long as I can remember. He ran creditably last time out but only in the past few days a little bird has told me he missed a fair bit of work in the run up to that and wasn’t at his best. I was happy with the run regardless but that gives me more hope that he can cause an upset. He’s as tough as they come, generally jumps like a buck and could ruffle a few feathers in the RSA.
Older Chasers
I backed
Sizing Europe
for the Queen Mother a long time ago but I must admit on his form this season he has no chance with Sprinter Sacre (it looks like nothing has in fairness). I’d give him a great chance of a place but as Ginger says connections may be tempted to run in the Ryanair. I think I’m in the minority who thinks
First Lieutenant
is tailor made for the Ryanair and if he runs there I’d make him strong favorite. He jumps super and if he races handy I can see him burning the speed out of the likes of Cue Card. If he runs in the Gold Cup he’s an able second string to my bow.
Sir Des Champs
is my favorite horse in training since the retirement of Voler La Vedette and I’m supremely confident of a big run in the Gold Cup. Many have slated him for this that and tother but I’ve stood by him though these tough times and he can come out the other side a champion. The only thing that can beat him is this Bobs Worth
If Paddy Power are willing to offer 20/1 on
Rule The World
through Oddschecker, then I’m willing to take it. Maybe I’ll get pulled up on this but nothing ventured nothing gained.
Neptune Hurdle
Rule The World
€10 e/w @ 20/1 (PP)I flagged this up earlier on the Cheltenham Neptune thread, it’s been fluctuating 10/1 to 20/1 all day, very odd!
I’ve taken the 20/1, shouldn’t be any comeback if it’s there cock up?
To be honest I don’t know Pants, I sincerely hope not anyway! Worst thing that can happen is bet refunded I would think.
Just watched a piece with Davy Russell about Un Atout on the At The Races site.
"He is what Sir Des Champs is only better."
Good God
Hi THM
Did Davy mention anything about ground conditions for Un Atout as he`s only raced on ground with the word heavy in it?
Extremely interesting prospect if he isn`t ground dependant.
Hi softie, Davy said that he thinks heavy ground doesn’t bring out the best in him and he should improve on better ground.
He’s closely related to Sir Des Champs and he goes well on good ground so hopefully this lad will be the same
I’ve long held the belief that the Champion Hurdle is between the 3 from the International Hurdle and Hurricane Fly. However, Hurricane Fly is too short, Rock On Ruby looked like he ran flat last time out while Grandouet had an interrupted prep. Everything has gone well for
Zarkandar
this season and that’s what you want. I think he’ll be very, very hard to beat.
Champion Hurdle
Zarkandar
€15 e/w @ 9/2 (PP nrnb)The World Hurdle has the look of a race that will cut up to me and I think current favourite
Oscar Whisky
should be closer to 5/2 than the 4/1 currently available. To me that’s an each way steal, much like Zarkandar, and has to be taken.
World Hurdle
Oscar Whisky
€15 e/w @ 4/1 (PP nrnb)Today, next year’s Jewson winner
Bright New Dawn
runs at Thurles. Up against a nice horse of Mullins’, not long after a hard race in the Deloitte, I wouldn’t back him at 5/4. However, he’s one of the horses I’m most looking forward to going over a fence next season.
All aboard the Carlito Express…
Pulteney Novices H’cap Chase
Carlito Brigante
€10 e/w @ 10/1 (William Hill)Supreme Novices Hurdle 2013
Un Atout
€10 win @ 33/1 (Paddy Power)Oh dear Tommy,you have the foresight to spot a good un and yet you throw all your hard work out of the window by backing a 33/1 shot to win!
If he runs a blinder and gets done on the line you would have still got back £76 and celebrated a small victory knowing he’ll make an even better Chaser.Instead you will be kicking the dog! Supreme Novices Hurdle 2013
Un Atout
€10 win @ 33/1 (Paddy Power)Oh dear Tommy,you have the foresight to spot a good un and yet you throw all your hard work out of the window by backing a 33/1 shot to win!
If he runs a blinder and gets done on the line you would have still got back £76 and celebrated a small victory knowing he’ll make an even better Chaser.Instead you will be kicking the dog! I know Gord, but at the time I din’t know if the Supreme would be his target and thought I’d rather have the tenner to win than a fiver e/w!
I better hope he wins then eh? 
It’ll take a top class horse to beat him imo. If he is beaten, I hope My Tent Or Yours does it Speaking of foresight, how about Bright New Dawn for the 2014 Jewson?
Back to business, since
Kid Cassidy
finished 5th behind Shooters Wood at Cheltenham last year I earmarked him for the Grand Annual. With the 12/1 disappearing, now looks the time to get on.
Grand Annual
Kid Cassidy
€7.50 e/w @ 12/1 (PP)Summer Star
flew home to win at Leopardstown and I don’t think a 10 lb rise will stop her today. She’s crept in on 9-10 at the bottom of the handicap and looks like a real improver. Imo 4/1 represents a decent e/w bet.
3.10 Leopardstown
Summer Star
€8.50 e/wEDIT: forgot to put in price and bookie: 4/1 (BetVic)
Well done with Summer Star THM!
Horse is better than the distance he won by. Katy sure does leave it late. But at least it shouldn’t hinder his mark in future. If only you can be certain the rider can time it right a third time.Value Is EverythingSpeaking of foresight, how about Bright New Dawn for the 2014 Jewson?
Lovely looking chaser in the making Tommy but I’d still favour
Un Atout
for that particular race as he doesn’t look speedy enough for an Arkle imo.
Thanks Ginger, I’d almost forgotten what it felt like to put a winner up on here
She looked flat to the boards turning in, exact same as last time really, so would agree she should improve over further.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.