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Watching Casual Conquest closely at Newmarket on 2000 Guinneas day, he hits the ground very hard and I think if the ground is soft/heavy then it will favour a horse that clips off the turf so CC is an unlikely winner for me
Can’t say I’ve noticed that about CC but what you are saying doesn’t make any sense to me. Daisly cutters want fast ground not soft. If he does ht the ground every hard I would have thought he woud want it soft.
However he’s never ran on soft/heavy before and I can’t for the life of me understand why CC has gone fav.
I’m not into trends so Lush Lashes being a filly doesn’t bother me.
I’ve backed Famous Name but this small field could be right up LL’s street.
She can produce one helluva trun of foot which very often decides these types of races.No idea how good AOB’s really is,but how good does he have to be? this is far from being a great race.
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I wouldn’t worry too much about Casual Conqest’s Newmarket defeat. He was already a gp1 winner, and was never likely to be fully tuned for the lower class introduction. Judged on his other form, the steady pace would have been all against him too, which is probably the main concern today. Difficult to see where the pace is coming from in this small field, and even on this heavy ground, CC looks ill-equipped for a sprint finish.
Famous Name doesn’t inspire confidence either, connections having resorted to a visor, then blinkers, to win a poor listed race last season, so it really should be down to Lush Lashes and Thewayyouare.
TWYA looks certain to come on for his seasonal debut, but LL is a much bigger fish than anything he’s tackled before and, though LL is unproven on the ground, she won’t mind whatever the pace is, and her class can see her through.I wouldn’t worry too much about Casual Conqest’s Newmarket defeat. He was already a gp1 winner
Hmmm his biggest win to date is the Group 2 Derrinstown.
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I wouldn’t worry too much about Casual Conqest’s Newmarket defeat. He was already a gp1 winner
Hmmm his biggest win to date is the Group 2 Derrinstown.
Oops!
A difficult race to figure out mainly due to the OBrien favourite.
Lush Lashes – Has the class and ability to win this. Big problem is the ground. Bolger said she wouldnt have run at the Ebor meeting because of the ground at York and its similar to that today. Her best runs are on fast. Took her a few runs to peak last season as well. Easily passed over today.
Casual Conquest – You’d have to go back to almost 12 months ago to find his best form, no real subsequent progress or improvement since then and plenty of temperament on display at Newmarket the last day. Maybe he’d prefer to be in the covering sheds at this stage. His quick action triggers alarm bells on deep ground.
Thewayyouare – The question mark horse. Nothing in his 3yo form to give him a chance today, best performance in his first run as a 4yo though. Lacks a turn of foot which might be telling in a small field on heavy ground today and looked stamina limited in the Ganay, breeding suggests stamina shouldn’t be a problem, perhaps he needed the run and will improve. A very difficult horse to asses at this stage could be anything.
Moquien – Nothing in the formbook to suggest he can be competitive in this.
Famous Name – Some seriously good form to his name over 10f through Vision D’Etat and The Bogberry. Handles cut ok not sure if he’ll like it as soft as this but may only have the Ballydoyle favourite to beat and 100/30 on Betfair looks a decent price.
I don’t post much on here but often view the big race threads, some very good posters on here and for what it’s worth here are my thoughts on the race:
Curragh 3.05 Tattersalls Gold Cup
Moiqen looks outclassed and is easily opposed, form comments generally read one paced, struggling and weakened at the end of its races.
Lush Lashes is a very good horse but better form has been on good or firmer ground, one run on heavy saw it finish 7th of 9, I could see them pulling this out of the race as conditions are unlikely to suit.
Famous Name has won over 10f at Listed Level and was 2nd in a French Group 1 but generally seems to struggle to get its head in front and has many places at group level that were not wins as the horse simply wasn’t good enough on the day. It placed on heavy earlier in May behind Curtain Call but was beaten 3l and that was a Group 3 race.
Thewayyouare demands respect just from seeing the words AP O’Brien next to it and he had a very impressive winner in Mastercraftsman at this track under these conditions in the Irish 2000 Guineas. It had 4 wins in a row as a 2 yr old, including a French Group 1 but it was with Andre Fabre back then and was running over 1m. It has had 2 races over a further distance in Group 1 French races and finished 10th and 4th and had no excuses apart from not being good enough. It will have come on for its seasonal reappearance but still might struggle to beat Casual Conquest.
Casual Conquests form looks solid, it won over 7f on its 2yr old debut and then won a Grp 2 race over 10f by 6 lengths. It was 3rd in last years Derby at Epsom and winners from that race include New Approach, Tartan Bearer, Dr Fremantle, Curtain Call and Frozen Fire to name a few, all top class Group performers. It then turned out in the Irish Derby and was a 2l second to Frozen Fire with Tartan Bearer, Centennial and Curtain Call all behind. It’s seasonal reappearance was a farce with lots of non runners leaving just a 3 horse field and that form is weak, the winner Bronze Cannon had only ever won in handicap company before that race.
It travelled well for a long way and looked like it would win but I felt the ground was too firm and it needed some cut to see it at its best. 10f trip should be fine and on this ground they’ll probably need to get a bit further and this horse has the proven stamina over 12f but the required pace for 10f too. Ignoring that last run I make this the clear form pick and expect it to have another 1 on its formline after this race.
I don’t have too many concerns about the ground for Casual Conquest as I felt it didn’t go on firm ground at Newmarket and also wasn’t helped by the pace. I’d like to see Smullen kick early on the horse and make it a real stamina test rather than a crawl and a final sprint. I think the horse needs cut, this might be too soft but we’ll see.
A had race to pick Famous Name’s french derby would look to be the most significant piece of form on offer as the ground was plenty soft enough for that, however he has seemed to struggle to recreat that level of form since.
I dont think Casual Conquest, Thewayyouare, Moiqen or Lush Lashes will like this surface too much, but then if Famous Name fails to deliver then any of those could potentially capitalise.
Famous Name for me but think I’ll spectate rather than participate here…
Vision D’Etat has missed a brilliant opportunity by not being in attendance. Would also like to have seen Cima Du Triomphe turn up, as want to see how good he is at 1m2f with cut…
I discovered the next best Hernando horse out of a Kris mare won 3 or 4 races – all of them on Slow/Heavy.
It was indeed. He travelled very sweetly and made all. Kicked about 2 out and won by about 6L. Famous Name was in 2nd and pretty sure Thewayyouare was last. Really is an appalling horse.
You got to be impressed with that Casual Conquest and seems a summer break is now in order and will be back in the Autumn.
Thewayyouare….Shocking and the market said it all.
Question is what horse does AOB have for the Prince of Wales at ascot now
FFS, this APOB obsession of various people is pissing me off.
Frozen Fire, Poet, Red Rock Canyon and Windsor Castle is the answer.
We don’t need to have an APOB runner to have a very good Prince Of Wales’s
Gladiatorus
Godolphin also have good 2nd, 3rd and 4th strings
Presvis
Vision d’Etat
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With what he has enetered it would take more than an AOB mircale to win the PE.
Henry Cecil has enter Kandahar Run and SMS has Dr Freemantleand I would love to see Pipedreamer going for it instead of the Eclipse but OAB hasn’t really got anything decent entered that is likley to run.
Great performance by Casual Conquest and well done to anyone who took the risk on that ground. Would have to let him take his chance in the ARC if there’s plenty cut.
Ah no Gerald we all want to look ahead.
True though the challenge is not strong….I see Famous Name is entered but surely he wont get his ground in mid June with a bit of cut.
Prevsis would have a great chance if he was to run…Stoute though hold all the aces in that race.
Delighted Weld finally won a Group 1 at the Curragh…its been a while
I’m glad you didn’t take it too personal Wallace – I just snapped, and it just happened to be you.
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