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Ginge, my issues with your argument isn’t your racing knowledge or betting skills, which i am sure are excellent. I take contention with the fact that you are making statements to which can never truely be backed up, and you continue to evade and avoid this.
Joe Mercer also didn’t say he thought Frankel was better. So inspite of the illogical stupidity of using a man’s opinion in attempt to help validate a statement that cannot be truely validated, the opinion cited wasn’t even termed correctly!
Have you seen every interview/quote Joe Mercer has ever said J17?
The quote I remember was I believe on ATR, seem to remember the presenter making a comment about it in the same way I have. If I did get the wrong impression then I apologise, both to you and Joe.
I don’t believe I’ve been "avoiding/evading" anything J17.
Please tell me what I’ve done J17. Because surely I explain my opinions more than most people on here? Some might say I explain things too much.
It seems I’ve already had a long discussion of what "beyond reasonable doubt" means in the Frankel context. An absolutely pointless excercise. 
Bare in mind…
Some things take too long to explain and most people don’t understand anyway. eg Those who don’t get a good form bookand
(even if they do) don’t know how to evaluate form… are unlikely to understand how reliable "form" is. Sorry if that makes me sound big headed, but sadly it’s the truth. Just look at my post below this one. Few people are going to understand, so what’s the point of providing a long (and I mean long) explanation? Am afraid on this occasion if it doesn’t "validate my statement", so be it.
Value Is EverythingWhat test would the Arc through up (besides proof of staying/not staying 2400M). The 2nd highest rated horse in Europe(Cirrus des Aigles), who beat the =3rd highest horse in Europe(Nathaniel) in the Champion Stakes last season will be in opposition. In fact you may recall Frankel has beaten another =3rd highest rated(Excelebration) twice this season a combined 16L.
Frankel has proved beyond ALL DOUBT he is the best horse in Europe, he doesn’t have to win the Arc to prove that, the others have to beat him in the Champion to challenge any doubt.
When you take into account the fillies allowance of 3lb Danedream is still rated superior to Nathaniel and Excelebration on this season’s ratings.
Back to the question of whether Frankel would’ve stayed in the Derby at that point in time…
Here is Ivanjica’s last post in the International Stakes (Big race section) thread. It goes to the heart of the discussion/arguement. Last sentence of the third last paragraph and the two last paragraphs are most relevent.
Quote:
"I have just re-timed them using the youtube footage and my smartphone – and I accept I got them wrong. Apologies. The opening furling of the Royal Lodge was quite a bit slower than the St James’s Palace Stakes – well, it was early in the morning and I had just done a 12 hour shift!!!
However this actually adds credence, does it not, to the theory that Frankel had proven both before and after the 2,000 Guineas that he was able to settle off both slow and normal paces, over a mile. In the Royal Lodge, off a slow pace he settles perfectly well. His final 2-y-o race did see him run freely but isn’t it reasonable to attribute that to the drop in trip?
Similarly the Greenham was used to point to him being prone to run freely but once again this was a 7f race which maybe, with the benefit of hindsight, was weel below his optimum.
Is it not fair to actually speculate now that his optimum trip is at least 10f, and that evedience of his free going style was based upon him running over trips less than his optimum".
I am very surprised at your questions Ivanjica, the answer is a very definite NO! It is NOT "reasonable to attribute Frankel running freely" in the Dewhurst and Greenham to the "drop in trip", or "running over a trips well below his optimum". I am sorry Ivanjica, but I’ve got to say such an opinion betrays poor race reading skills.
When a horse goes down in trip he is racing at a faster speed (unless the pace is comparitively pedestrian for the distance). Therefore going down in trip should actually HELP a horse to settle.
When racing at a trip "well below his optimum" far from being too "free" a horse is highly likely to be at least pushed along if not hard ridden to go the pace. Frankel was "free"
despite
going
down
to 7f…
Think about it Ivanjica. Which horse do you believe is more likely to pull/race freely?
A) A stayer racing at 5f?
B) A sprinter racing at 2m?If you believe a horse is more likely to be free/pull going down in trip, then presumably you also believe a horse will settle better going
up
in trip. Which goes some way to explaining your strange opinion that Frankel would settle in the Derby.
The Derby is over a 5f longer trip than the 7f Dewhurst and Greenham. That’s an increase in trip of over 71%. Yet you believe Ivanjica, despite being free at 7f he’d settle at 12 furlongs with only one race at a mile in between where he’d also run FREELY. (emotion for raised eyebrows)
When racing over a trip longer than it is used to, a horse needs to race at a slower speed. Therefore is far more likely to be free/pull hard, ie
wanting to go faster
. When considering whether a horse will stay the trip it is wise to not only look at a horse’s breeding but also its character, whether it settles well at lesser trips. One who does not settle at a mile (or even 7f) almost certainly won’t stay 12 furlongs, even if there are some reasons to be hopeful looking at breeding. ie Highly unlikely to stay 12 furlongs until it settles better in his races at shorter distances. Frankel now settles much better than he used to, so would now have a much better chance of staying 12f than he did in June 2011.
Conversely, a horse who settles extremely well / races lazily at shorter distances often stays further than its breeding indicates.
To use another Court room expression, "I rest my case" (at least for now).
Value Is EverythingI’m chuffed really having already bought my ticket for Ascot in October. I would have loved to see him contest the Arc but his participation there would probably have meant me not seeing him run again. At least now we British racing fans have the chance to see him sign off on home turf.
I like your thinking and attitude regarding this.
I am sure that there was a time when, if it were guaranteed that Frankel would run in the Juddmonte and Champion Stakes, most people would have been delighted. There was a feeling that Frankel may never run beyond a mile and it was mouth-watering to think about him tackling the 10f trip.
Now that he has done so successfully, instead of being satisfied and looking towards him repeating the feat in the Champion Stakes to prove it was no fluke, we feel the need for the champ to prove himself over further still, in a race his trainer has never been associated with. IF Frankel DID run in the Arc and won, it would no doubt be speculated over whether he might just have won the triple crown last year and beaten Camelot to the punch had he been given the chance.
I actually dreamt last night that Frankel got beat in the Champion Stakes. Queally held him up really far off the pace and he didn’t quicken at all. The commentator had great faith that Frankel could still get there with only 50 yards to run but it didn’t happen and I felt as sick as a parrot.
I hope that whenever Frankel hangs up his shoes he will be unbeaten and remembered for the fact that
he didn’t just beat horses, he absolutely crushed them.
He is the best I have seen in almost 40 years of watching racing and I don’t think I will see another like him if I live for 40 more.
And that is it exactly Steve! I’ve seen lots of fantastic horses over the years but nothing that consistently flattens group fields in the way Frankel has.
I cant say I’ve looked deeply into the form of races but when looking back at footage of horses like the Brigadier and Sea Bird -as I have been recently- neither of them seemed to me to win their respective races with quite the panache that Frankel has. Older and better judges than me seem willing to credit this animal with being the best race horse they’ve seen.
I’m sure the Champion will let us see yet another brilliant performance from Frankel, but you cant help but feel an element of disappointment in the extent to which we will be left feeling that we haven’t seen the full potential of the horse.
Still, bring on Ascot!
http://i171.photobucket.com/albums/u307/ChristopherPHammond/frankelandtomrfc.jpg
Have you seen every interview/quote Joe Mercer has ever said J17?
The quote I remember was I believe on ATR, seem to remember the presenter making a comment about it in the same way I have. If I did get the wrong impression then I apologise, both to you and Joe.
I don’t believe I’ve been "avoiding/evading" anything J17.
Mercer on CH4 didn’t state Frankel was better. He basically inferred they had similar ability. I have not seen all Mercer interviews/read his book.
Not that it matters what Mercer says. His opinion cannot be used any form of reliable evidence, for obvious reasons.
Please tell me what I’ve done J17. Because surely I explain my opinions more than most people on here? Some might say I explain things too much.
It seems I’ve already had a long discussion of what "beyond reasonable doubt" means in the Frankel context. An absolutely pointless excercise. Bare in mind…
Some things take too long to explain and most people don’t understand anyway. eg Those who don’t get a good form bookand
(even if they do) don’t know how to evaluate form… are unlikely to understand how reliable "form" is. Sorry if that makes me sound big headed, but sadly it’s the truth. Just look at my post below this one. Few people are going to understand, so what’s the point of providing a long (and I mean long) explanation? Am afraid on this occasion if it doesn’t "validate my statement", so be it.
Yes, some things do take too long to explain. Hence why i am still posting, 20 pages later.
Form is relatively reliable. Ratings are relatively reliable. However, when two horses (BG/Frankel), 40 years apart, are rated very closely be nearly every respected rating system, then i don’t know how you can derive at such a stance as you have. There are too many variables to thus make definitive statements about who would win.
If rating systems and form were utterly reliable, then knowing winners of any given race would be very easy. However, as these ratings/form are not always indicative of what the outcome is, then we can extrapolate this and say we cannot use this form/rating system to give an absolute to a question about horses 40 years apart.
Unfotunately, it seems you are more insistant on repeatedly suggesting your great form skills. The more you post, the more it reads as a self-advertisement campaign.
No one cares. I’m not here to read repetitive self-praising, self indulgent nonsense.
Have you seen every interview/quote Joe Mercer has ever said J17?
The quote I remember was I believe on ATR, seem to remember the presenter making a comment about it in the same way I have. If I did get the wrong impression then I apologise, both to you and Joe.
I don’t believe I’ve been "avoiding/evading" anything J17.
Mercer on CH4 didn’t state Frankel was better. He basically inferred they had similar ability. I have not seen all Mercer interviews/read his book.
Not that it matters what Mercer says. His opinion cannot be used any form of reliable evidence, for obvious reasons.
Please tell me what I’ve done J17. Because surely I explain my opinions more than most people on here? Some might say I explain things too much.
It seems I’ve already had a long discussion of what "beyond reasonable doubt" means in the Frankel context. An absolutely pointless excercise. Bare in mind…
Some things take too long to explain and most people don’t understand anyway. eg Those who don’t get a good form bookand
(even if they do) don’t know how to evaluate form… are unlikely to understand how reliable "form" is. Sorry if that makes me sound big headed, but sadly it’s the truth. Just look at my post below this one. Few people are going to understand, so what’s the point of providing a long (and I mean long) explanation? Am afraid on this occasion if it doesn’t "validate my statement", so be it.
Yes, some things do take too long to explain. Hence why i am still posting, 20 pages later.
Form is relatively reliable. Ratings are relatively reliable. However, when two horses (BG/Frankel), 40 years apart, are rated very closely by nearly every respected rating system, then i don’t know how you can derive at such a stance as you have. There are too many variables to thus make definitive statements about who would win.
If rating systems and form were utterly reliable, then knowing winners of any given race would be very easy. However, as these ratings/form are not always indicative of what the outcome is, then we can extrapolate this and say we cannot use this form/rating system to give an absolute to a question about horses 40 years apart who are rated so close. No matter how good your apparent racing reading skills are
Unfotunately, it seems you are more insistant on repeatedly suggesting your great form skills. The more you post, the more it reads as a self-advertisement campaign.
No one cares. I’m not here to read repetitive self-praising, self indulgent nonsense.
I detest back-slapping – this thread is becoming a back-slappers paradise.
Read the winners of the Arc over the last 20 years and compare it to the Champion Stakes winners over the same period.
Frankel should have chanced the Arc. The Arc is The Arc – The Champion is strictly second rate in comparison – anyone who says otherwise is – WRONG.
.
I detest back-slapping – this thread is becoming a back-slappers paradise.
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Sorry PC I haven’t a clue what you are going on about. Who is back slapping who?
The Champion is the second richest race in England only narrowly behind the Derby. It is a race that is growing and growing in prestige as well as prize money. Take a look at last year’s top 5 if yo have any doubt. CDA, SYT, Snow Fairy, Midday and Nathaniel. A top quality field.
If it is not quite up there with the Arc yet it is certainly not a race to be dismissed out of hand like you seem to be doing.
The Arc was never on the agenda PC. Let it go mate.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
I am really disappointed he is not going for the ARC, it would have really copper-fastened his reputation as one of the greats.
I detest back-slapping – this thread is becoming a back-slappers paradise.
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Sorry PC I haven’t a clue what you are going on about. Who is back slapping who?
The Champion is the second richest race in England only narrowly behind the Derby. It is a race that is growing and growing in prestige as well as prize money. Take a look at last year’s top 5 if yo have any doubt. CDA, SYT, Snow Fairy, Midday and Nathaniel. A top quality field.
If it is not quite up there with the Arc yet it is certainly not a race to be dismissed out of hand like you seem to be doing.
The Arc was never on the agenda PC. Let it go mate.
Its my apology not yours – was a stupid comment to make and I retract it.
But regarding the Champion, I respectfully disagree. The Arc winners list will always be a "Who’s Who", and the Champion Stakes will always be a "Who Else". Not running in The Arc certainly doesn’t detract from Frankel’s marvellous career, but winning it would certainly have added something.
Its my apology not yours – was a stupid comment to make and I retract it.
But regarding the Champion, I respectfully disagree. The Arc winners list will always be a "Who’s Who", and the Champion Stakes will always be a "Who Else". Not running in The Arc certainly doesn’t detract from Frankel’s marvellous career, but winning it would certainly have added something.
I did think it was a very un-PC thing to say!
I take your point and agree to an extent but am very hopeful (as I am sure Ascot are) that the Champion list will get better every year. As I say it has a huge purse and with 10f becoming the ever popular middle distance trip there should be plenty of enticement for connections. Cirrhus Des Aigles last year followed by Frankel this would not be a bad start!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Will the International, the Irish Champion Stakes and the Champion Stakes at Ascot become the new Triple Crown of racing someday?
I find that a surprising comment coming from you mate.
The Brigadier did not run in the Arc, despite being entered. Do you consider it "an omission" that could be "avoided"? Do you think any less of The Brigadier for not running in the Arc?Well you shouldn’t find it surprising and the answer to your question is no for one very important reason which you seem to have overlooked. The Brigadier had already run over 12f when winning the King George but connections knew after that he didn’t really get it and therefore never attempted it again and no one ever thought he would. Joe Mercer stated he was out on his feet over the last two furlongs and only won it through sheer guts. With Frankel we don’t know if he stays 12f as he’s never attempted it and sadly now it seems never will.
Btw I don’t think any less of Frankel, he can only run where he is entered and he is an exceptionally great horse, but I do believe connections have been overly conservative with his 4yo campaign. They waited too long to try him over 10f and without doubt should have tried him at 12f.
If he’d been mine he’d have run in the Prince of Wales at Ascot and then the King George and imo he’d have won both.
Ginge, my issues with your argument isn’t your racing knowledge or betting skills, which i am sure are excellent.
Then why would you say
"
If you truely understood form
…"? It’s either one or the other, the two don’t mix J17.
Had you not said those words there’d be no reason to explain my understanding of form… And would not have needed to once again defend myself against Ivanjica’s accusation of
"…you seem to support your opinion with a claim that your race reading skills are superior to anybody who disagrees with your point of view".
So it is not that I am (as you say)
"more insistant on repeatedly suggesting your great form skills".
And there’s no
"self-advertisement campaign"
. I don’t sell anything.
It’s not about
"self-praising, self indulgent nonsense"
, had you not questioned my
"understanding" of "form"
J17, there’d have been no need for me to say a word. If you and Ivanjica would shut up about it then I’d shut up about it!
Can we forget about it now?
Value Is EverythingSo it is not that I am (as you say)
"more insistant on repeatedly suggesting your great form skills".
And there’s no
"self-advertisement campaign"
. I don’t sell anything.
So had you not questioned my
"understanding"
J17, there’d have been no need for me to say a word. If you and Ivanjica would shut up about it then I’d shut up about it!
Can we forget about it now?
Even my toilet at university didn’t have the sheer volume of …….
Do yourself a favour and read. Instead of wittering on about something no one cares about :
Your race reading skills cannot substantiate the ludicrious claim you made ;
Frankel is the best racehorse of all time. 40 years apart. Rated basically together by every respected rating system. No collateral form what so ever. Times, incomparable, given horse racing isn’t a time trail event. You do not have the data required to be speaken in relative absolutes about the best horse of all time.
If you do believe you can speak about this topic in relative absolutes, then my friend, you make Willie Carson look like a coherent genuis of the 21st century.
Do not reply to this post if all you intend on doing is repeating yourself again. The toilet is jammed and will not flush. If, however, you have any reasoning to counter the bolded words, then be my guest, but if it’s simply "My race reading ability", then i do not care. You’ve never explained how this race reading ability translates into Frankel being the best of all time.
If you’re going to make a whacky ridiculous hypothesis, then atleast do the justice of giving such a retarded hypothesis a thorough explanation behind it.
Interesting thought. The question, who is the greatest race horse of all time, is a question you should never see in a quiz. Unfortunate for yourself, given you’re such a master of the quiz.
It seems I’ve already had a long discussion of what "beyond reasonable doubt" means in the Frankel context. An absolutely pointless excercise. 
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