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I don’t know if there will be a section devoted to Royal Ascot but thought I’d stick the early Royal Hunt Cup prices up for any budding ante post adventurers.
The first flush of betting sees 12/1 the field and we all know that by the time the dust settles and the balloting out has been done there will probably be something sitting about 6/1 favourite come the off, so it can pay to get in early if you are confident your pick is going to be there on the day.
My eye is drawn straight to last weeks scorer Speculative Bid, who is one of the 12/1 shots here. The Excellent Art gelding is trained by David Elsworth and he won a 26 runner handicap at Newbury last week under Jamie Spencer. That automatically makes him a candidate for me, because I love horses who have won in these huge field cavalry charges before. He beat Mick Channon’s Lincoln that day and did well to weave his way through after travelling well in behind. I reckon he had more in hand that the margin suggests and he seems a horse with more to give and one to keep on your side for now.
Another useful fact is that his handicap mark was raised 10 lbs, which may seem bad news but his new 104 rating means he’s pretty much guaranteed a place in the field, as the lower rated ones will be balloted out first. He looks a shade of class to me.
Luca Cumani’s Ayaar is thereabouts as favourite for this, landing the Spring Cup in good style and the runner up Spark Plug has won since. Ayaar went up 6lbs to 102 for his win and is another shoo in to get a run if desired.
John Gosden’s G M Hopkins is next in most lists and he’s been successful in a big field before. Not so good in the Lincoln though and his trainer describes him as “moody”, he may lack the improvement now and is passed over for those two reasons.
Lightning Spear has been backed for this and he’s unbeaten for Olly Stevens, 3/3 in minor handicaps. His rating has climbed steadily to 96 after his latest win at Lingfield. This will be a totally different ball game for him after his less competitive, smaller field wins but he remains untapped for now.
Temptress was a good winner for Roger Charlton at Ascot and the stable have started to get moving after a quiet start. She’s 16/1 for those not concerned if she will handle the hustle and bustle of this challenge, compared to the fillies handicap of 8 runners last time she ran.
Michael Stoute’s Abseil is generally next at 20/1 and he’s the last horse I’ll cover here. He was an expensive beaten favourite when a ridiculous 7/2f for the same race last year and went on to be beaten favourite in the Bunbury Cup where he was last. Stoute has been in better form of late and Abseil ran well when 3rd at York last week when a 14/1 shot. I’ll leave him, even though he’s huge odds compared to last year.
I am hoping Speculative Bid can quicken and swoop late to lift this prize. He’s 4/4 with Jamie Spencer on board, so that will be part of the ideal scenario. A bit of luck needed with the draw but 12/1 offsets that and I am confident he’ll start shorter.
Advised :- Royal Hunt Cup Speculative Bid 12/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The last three Hunt Cup’s have all been won by pretty experienced handicappers and my initial pick is Belgian Bill who has won the race previously and was a little unlucky last year and I am pretty sure will have been laid out for this!! I don’t know what price he is but closer to the day I will certainly be checking his price. The other one I am keeping an eye on is Munaaser of Michael Stoute’s. Ran well behind GM Hopkins at Ascot last year and has had a pipe opener behind Spark Plug this year.
Obviously nearer the time things will be easier to work out but I tend to feel that generally this race is won by a streetwise horse rather than a big improver.The last three Hunt Cup’s have all been won by pretty experienced handicappers and my initial pick is Belgian Bill who has won the race previously and was a little unlucky last year and I am pretty sure will have been laid out for this!! I don’t know what price he is but closer to the day I will certainly be checking his price. The other one I am keeping an eye on is Munaaser of Michael Stoute’s. Ran well behind GM Hopkins at Ascot last year and has had a pipe opener behind Spark Plug this year.
Obviously nearer the time things will be easier to work out but I tend to feel that generally this race is won by a streetwise horse rather than a big improver.I backed Belgian Bill last year at 25/1, he was hammered in late, all the way down to 8/1 but the jockey managed to hold him up on the rail and then couldn’t get out when it mattered. I nearly panned in the TV screen in frustration as he finished 7th, never able to launch a proper challenge.
Normally I am cautious on these “sexier” improvers as well, but Speculative Bid has won a 26 runner handicap already and I think that is a bonus for a horse who is on the upgrade.
Munaaser could well be progressive and was a leading fancy for the Lincoln before the trainer admitted he had run out of time to get him to the race.
As always seems to be the case an exposed looking rag will probably pop up and save the bookies but it doesn’t stop us dreaming.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
CHILL THE KITE 25/1
Loves Ascot have a big weight but not stop horses running big races in this race can see him going close here
CHILL THE KITE 25/1
Loves Ascot have a big weight but not stop horses running big races in this race can see him going close here
I’ve bought that bloody horse Darren,I did him for last years race and George Baker let the winner go,he’s in my 4 for sure.Its an easy race to predict this year as the winner has run over the Newbury mile this season,trouble is splitting GM Hopkins,Ayaar and the very imposing Spark Plug aint easy.One of those 4 will win!
I see ‘Speculative Bid’ is still the 10/1fav for this and yet he’s a 7f horse imo.I prefer to see a failed 11/4m horse dropped back in trip for this very stiff mile and I still cant split GM Hopkins and Spark Plug.The 25’s has gone on the latter now and both trade around the 16/1 mark,come the day I expect single figures on both so taking the double figure prices e/w is my policy here.
Bet365 only go 12/1 about Spark plug but at least it has the proviso of NRNB attached to it,come Wednesday morning I can see this fellow trading as the 6/1fav so 12/1 is generous.
Not the most original selection, but I’m all over Ayaar for this. I’m still kicking myself I didn’t back the horse on its first run this season,as it was in my note book after a fine effort at the royal meeting last season.
Track,trip and likely ground all look ideal and Cumani usually leaves his horses with something to work on after their first run of the season, it was quite telling he was so impressive for me.
At much bigger prices, I think Nakuti has run far better this season than form book suggests. She is probably going to struggle to get into this, I’m not too sure it’s the right race for her either as I’m waiting for stiff 7f with a bit of cut in the ground. If she does get in, I will still have a few quid EW as she has been running very well this season and will pop in soon at a big price.
96,is what the bottom weight is rated how times have changed.Wanted Russian Realm to get in,but didn’t make cut so i will throw a few shillings ew at Munaseer @ around 25s.Did like Dettori’s mount but the draw of one has put me off slightly,will watch day one,to see how it pans out
GL all
Have to agree with you NWalton . This could be a serious improver and is well drawn!!
I think Lamar is a huge price too!!Normally you want a horse who stays a mile very well and arguably is suited by a bit further as it’s such a strong run race.
After reviewing the draw, I’m struggling to find an obvious pace angle this year. Most of the strongly fancied horses tend to come off the pace and are drawn low to middle.
I really fancy Ayaar but stall one and no obvious pace has dented a bit of confidence.
Of the more fancied horse, GM Hopkins is the one who stands out as having raced just off the pace in the past. I just feel he is a better horse with a bit of cut in the ground.
Maybe I’m over thinking things, but it’s becoming a bit more of a puzzle after the draw.
This is just about bloody impossible. For what it’s worth I’m giving “the black spot” to Bronze Angel. He’s had 4 runs this year, none of which covered him in glory, but this is definitely his type of race. He is 2 lb higher than when winning over course and distance last year, and is battle hardened and when he’s on song has a great turn of foot when it matters. I took the 20/1 , it looks like the best on offer now is 16/1, but I still think that’s a decent bet with 5 places on offer.
Best of luck
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>darren83 wrote:</div>
CHILL THE KITE 25/1Loves Ascot have a big weight but not stop horses running big races in this race can see him going close here
I’ve bought that bloody horse Darren,I did him for last years race and George Baker let the winner go,he’s in my 4 for sure.Its an easy race to predict this year as the winner has run over the Newbury mile this season,trouble is splitting GM Hopkins,Ayaar and the very imposing Spark Plug aint easy.One of those 4 will win!
Confidence is King!
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