- This topic has 104 replies, 36 voices, and was last updated 14 years, 2 months ago by
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Why do you actually post here?
Just wondering
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Because its the only real place i can keep in contact with sweep it under the carpet types like you
There maybe no case to answer with regard to todays events but the trainer coming out and saying that Richard Johnson might of been the reason the horse attracted money tells you everything you need to know about horse racing.
All it might actually be telling you is that trainer Delyth Thomas has a reasonably well developed sense of the fickle nature of backers; that which follows the logic that "jockey A may be okay, but other (or here: replacement) jockey B is chuffing amazing and / or we know more about him so let’s pile on".
I’m reminded of a betting pattern that developed at a Saturday evening Lingfield meeting the other week – I think this is all accurate, though I’m sure I can stand corrected if not.
Richard Hughes had, of course, enjoyed an absolutely astonishing Glorious Goodwood, and not content to carry his bat had been booked to ride Fly By White for Richard Hannon in a Lingfield maiden barely 90 minutes after his final ride at the Sussex track that afternoon. It was his only ride of the evening, and presumably on the basis of what had unfolded at Goodwood all week, but helped in no small part by another double on the day, Fly By White was majorly hammered in price between 5pm and 6.20pm or thereabouts.
Timothy T, available at 10-11 that morning, consequently plummeted out to 13-8 and forfeited a favouritism he’d never looked remotely like losing before 5pm.
It was then, all of two minutes before the off, that the assorted media outlets not on course announced that Richard Hughes hadn’t made it to the course due to traffic issues, and that Alan Munro was up instead.
Cue a retrenchment on Fly By White from 6-4 fav back out to 2-1 second fav, and backing in again of Timothy T from 13-8 to 5-4 fav in no time whatsoever.
Again, I can only conclude the market volatility was founded on nothing more than Alan Munro not being Richard Hughes. All of which was allowed to override that Timothy T’s credentials were much the brighter of the two horses beforehand and (judged on both the win there and a Grade 3 place finish since) have remained thus.
That much difference, in essence, to today’s dive in price? If there
is
anything nefarious concerning the Hereford race today, I don’t think the actuality of Am I Blue diving in price just because more backers have heard of (and are willing to throw their lot in with) Richard Johnson over Dean Coleman is it.
gc
Adoptive father of two. The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.
I understand exactly how you feel Joncol and have adopted a method that I try to stick to, in the hope of saving my sanity.
I try to identify a betting proposition using the normal criteria e.g. form, going, distance etc.
But I then use a filter to try and refine whether to actually go ahead and actually bet the horse that I fancy.
The filter is essentially half a dozen trainer / jockey combinations that I have faith in. If the fancy isn’t from one of these sources, then I simply walk away.
That is not implying that those other combinations are untrustworthy, but simply I would rather trust others.
Until this season I have shown a level stakes profit over 7 of the previous 9 seasons ( you can deduce from the last comment that this will soon change to 7 out of the previous 10).
Having said all that my "reliable" combinations can obviously be outdone by horses from other stables being laid out
This years poor performance has been due to getting distracted e.g. betting Fallons only mount at Catterick).Not sure whether this post belongs in another area of the forum, and if so, then I apologise. I was merely responding to Joncol to empathise.
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Unfortunately in my view there are too many filters, the filter would eat up all the selections
In all seriousness though it does seem a good approach but again I just dont like the non racing risks attached to horse racing these days that really should not be there, but they are and you can eitheR adopt an approach similar to yours to combat it or switch to other sports where although some instances do occur there is rarely a need to filter as its more about abiliy and ability only.
If Standard and Poors were to rate a horse racing bet as an investment what do you think they would say
Give it a rest Joncol. You’re spoiling my enjoyment of the forum.
If there is one thing I hate its someone with an agenda who won’t shut up about it.
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If you dont like what Im saying mate then just look the other way, you should know it, its the same way you look when instances like this happen.
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If there is one thing I hate its someone with an agenda who won’t shut up about it.
With respect perhaps a forum isn’t the ideal place for you to spend time..
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If there is one thing I hate its someone with an agenda who won’t shut up about it.
With respect perhaps a forum isn’t the ideal place for you to spend time..
Get a grip Joncol, you’re a troll who comes here to wind everyone up, you even admitted you have no interest in Racing which begs the question why are you here?
My preferences for betting are Tennis, Football, Golf and Snooker as you can have a bet and generally get a few hours entertainment.
Still love a bet on the horses though and always will do it seems, unfortunately for my bank balance.
Joncol, with respect, why don’t you just entertain me? You clearly have a brain. Tell me about Rubstic or Royal Mail or something. Tell me about the green grass of Cork, the horses of Dermot Weld. That way I’ve learned something rather than your ceaseless ranting.
Wigan did Tottenham on Saturday. The Hamiltons are at it again with the backhanders. Federerer was a game away from losing to a pub player. Horse racing is no more "bent" than any other sport. People like you are doing it no favours. I’m sorry you lost your house or whatever, but that’s not my problem. Take your agenda elsewhere.
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Might I ask the Cassandras, Doomsayers and Jeremiahs – what do you
like
about Horse Racing? What keeps you coming back for more?
Simple Pinza,
A lot of punters want the game to be "bent", because then it is not their own fault for backing losers (whether here and now or in the past).
Value Is EverythingBeating up racing is par for the course for losing punters, GT, I agree with you.
The media too. There is more than one hypocritical journalist who has laid the boot into horse racing while being paid to comment upon sports such as cricket (sadly corrupt, it appears, with staggering sums at stake which seemingly dwarf the average horse racing skullduggery); motor racing (laughable team instructions), association football (Italian football, sneaky lower division wage "subsidies), rugby league, tennis (numerous minor scale gambles landed on the exchanges) and snooker (many high profile correct score punts landed) etc.
At Southwell on Tuesday night, five of the six horse races were won by form horses – horses which could be found without undue reference to the market. I’m not saying Southwell is the racecourse equivalent of Lourdes, but no-one ever mentions consistent results, or days when the bookmaker cries when the form horses sweep the board. It’s just not scandalous enough.
Joncol – your continued presence on the forum astounds me.
Are you here to ‘out’ racing as inherently corrupt?
Or are you just here to try to wind people up?
Come on, let’s hear it – have your say and then be done with it.
I back horses but there’s no way I’d back a horse in a handicap that won it’s last race.
I’m sure trainers do instruct jockeys to ‘non try’ in order to get their handicap mark down but I don’t consider it to be an exmaple of ‘bentness’ on the part of the trainer, I consider it to be an example of failure on the part of the handicapper.
Not to mention the meagre prize money; if I were an owner I’d want the mark coming down as soon as possible.Is it just me or do horses in the ‘lower leagues’ tend to fly up the weights on the back of one or two wins but then take an age to come down again?
It’s just another factor to consider when picking your punts. And at the end of the day; the owner can request, the trainer can instruct & the jockey can ride but there’s still a chance your horse is just going to plonk itself on the ground & refuse to move. (Until Wolves tonight, I’d never seen that before!)
The reason I don’t back horses (regularly) anymore is because I got bored.
I do bet at the big meetings but ploughing through the form BOOK day in day out of mediocre horses racing for mediocre prize money finished me.
I am afraid its the old chesnut of far too much racing and I just packed it in.
I wonder how many more like me because on the odd occassion I do go in a betting shop it’s like a morgue.
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