Racing Post Trophy 2013

[darren83]

Steve what you think of AUSTRALIA after that run should be perfect for derby now this stable top 3yo colts always better on 2nd and 3rd runs

[stevecaution]

Steve what you think of AUSTRALIA after that run should be perfect for derby now this stable top 3yo colts always better on 2nd and 3rd runs

Darren, I started a thread about Australia on the main board just before he made his debut. He was a little unlucky being slowly away that day but I felt he would have won if he was anything like his breeding suggested he could be. Next time up he got off the mark but made quite heavy weather of it and I didn’t see enough to back him at 25/1 for the Derby. Of course he went and hosed up next time but it was a small field and I’m always wary of reading too much into one result where it only takes one horse to have an off day to make the form look better than it might actually be. I had missed the boat for the Derby by then and over the winter he kept shortening up. I was against him for the 2000G but I was very impressed by the way he ran. He looks a lot sharper this year and it would take a brave man to back Kingston Hill to reverse the form at Epsom on anything other than soft ground. The big question marks, as always, will be how he handles the track at Epsom and if he stays the trip to full effect. You would think he should be OK on both fronts but you can never be 100% confident of horses who showed enough speed to place in a Guineas. Geoffrey Chaucer seems to be the only other horse O’Brien has "bigged up" this spring but he sits at 16/1 in the Derby betting now with Australia best priced at 7/4. I feel Australia will go off odds on come Derby Day. True Story, the second favourite was a ready winner of the Fielden at Newmarket but what did he actually beat that day? The Fielden hasn’t been a hotbed for Derby winners in my generation at least and Godolphin have been hit and miss this season. John Gosden has a decent each-way contender in Western Hymn who was not spectacular last time but managed to win despite hating the soft going. The French horses may not come over this year and I don’t see many realistic contenders emerging from the shadows. Kingman will not be in the race and connections have already said Night Of Thunder is probably headed to Royal Ascot and the St James’ Palace, so that is another one out of the way.

You are sitting on a great bet Darren, I have Western Hymn at 33/1 but he’ll have to hope Australia either hates Epsom or doesn’t get home to be a likely winner. The Dante will play a big role in reshaping the market and Australia may well be odds on all over if anything fluffs their lines.

All the best Darren.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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