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Typical ridiculous prices banded about by bookies in the aftermath of a back end race run on gutters, with a few burst bubbles lying in the wake. 8/1 Kingston Hill for the 2000 Guineas is totally ridiculous and 5/1 for The Derby is also ludicrous at this stage. William Hill are frankly scandalous with Australia heading their Derby betting at 4/1, with Kingston Hill sitting second favourite at 5/1. They should be utterly ashamed of themselves.
Today’s race went pretty much as I had expected, apart from Johann Strauss running quite well and Century being so dismal. The demise of Pinzolo was no surprise to me, as I have seen it so often with Godolphin horses not going on. As sure as guns were made of iron, the Timeform blurb for Pinzolo today read "Definitely more to come" and, just as surely, it didn’t happen.
I don’t think it was a great race today but good luck to Kingston Hill and his connections. He may make his mark next year but surely he’ll need a strong emphasis on stamina to show his best. I’ll renege on the 5/1 for the Derby and try to unearth a nugget at 25/1 next May for a bit of value against the shorties.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Steeplechasing ..Well done KHill won nicely and cant fault what he did however it appears moving on to next year he requires soft ground which he revelled in today…so soft Century could hardly walk in it…however hats off he looked excellent on the ground and being by Coolmore colt Mastercraftsman..it was a fair bet……Il stick to JS to improve on better ground…but today is your day..Oh and the guy who could least afford to supplement Kingston Hill ..is the son of Coolmore billionaire Derek Smith.
Steeplechasing ..Well done KHill won nicely and cant fault what he did however it appears moving on to next year he requires soft ground which he revelled in today…so soft Century could hardly walk in it…however hats off he looked excellent on the ground and being by Coolmore colt Mastercraftsman..it was a fair bet……Il stick to JS to improve on better ground…but today is your day..Oh and the guy who could least afford to supplement Kingston Hill ..is the son of Coolmore billionaire Derek Smith.
Thanks, mate. Trainer says he thinks he’ll be better on decent ground. If so, they might as well give him the trophy now
I didn’t know that was who Paul Smith was: he seems at least as good a judge as his old man!
Typical ridiculous prices banded about by bookies in the aftermath of a back end race run on gutters, with a few burst bubbles lying in the wake. 8/1 Kingston Hill for the 2000 Guineas is totally ridiculous and 5/1 for The Derby is also ludicrous at this stage. William Hill are frankly scandalous with Australia heading their Derby betting at 4/1, with Kingston Hill sitting second favourite at 5/1. They should be utterly ashamed of themselves.
Today’s race went pretty much as I had expected, apart from Johann Strauss running quite well and Century being so dismal. The demise of Pinzolo was no surprise to me, as I have seen it so often with Godolphin horses not going on. As sure as guns were made of iron, the Timeform blurb for Pinzolo today read "Definitely more to come" and, just as surely, it didn’t happen.
I don’t think it was a great race today but good luck to Kingston Hill and his connections. He may make his mark next year but surely he’ll need a strong emphasis on stamina to show his best. I’ll renege on the 5/1 for the Derby and try to unearth a nugget at 25/1 next May for a bit of value against the shorties.
A wee bit harsh, I think, Steve. Leaving any bias aside because I backed him, he repeated what he’d done in his first 2 races: took a little time to get the message when shaken up but then got motoring and it was game over. It’s hard to say what he’s beaten and how the going affected them, but his attitude, turn of foot and stamina will serve him well. He looks to me very much the type who’ll get more ‘professional’ with each race, and his trainer believes good ground will be fine for him. Also, as with Treve, you never know the true talent of unbeaten horses. He won handsomely and dossed a bit in front.
Having said all that, I would not be taking 5s for The Derby. 8s for the Guineas is much better value imo. The race seems very much in his trainer’s mind, and it gives you a strong hint of how good he believes this horse is.
Joe
Well TTL your selection ran like he has run in the past.Lacked the turn of foot to put the race away just like his runs at Naas and Newmarket.But you got your e/w bet to console you so not a wasted evening after all.At least R Moore did not use him up !
PS Joseph got the chance to see a real up and coming(apprentice) jockey at work during the afternoon.A wee bit harsh, I think, Steve. Leaving any bias aside because I backed him, he repeated what he’d done in his first 2 races: took a little time to get the message when shaken up but then got motoring and it was game over. It’s hard to say what he’s beaten and how the going affected them, but his attitude, turn of foot and stamina will serve him well. He looks to me very much the type who’ll get more ‘professional’ with each race, and his trainer believes good ground will be fine for him. Also, as with Treve, you never know the true talent of unbeaten horses. He won handsomely and dossed a bit in front.
Having said all that, I would not be taking 5s for The Derby. 8s for the Guineas is much better value imo. The race seems very much in his trainer’s mind, and it gives you a strong hint of how good he believes this horse is.
Joe
Joe, I think you should go back and read my earlier posts on this thread. You will find that I selected Kingston Hill for this race before you mentioned him. I think my run through the field was pretty decent in terms of those to avoid and the reasons for doing so.
I have a totally realistic take on horses and there is no sentiment involved whatsoever in judging their merit. I thought Kingston Hill was the most likely winner today and gave his trainer as my only negative.
Kingston Hill was Roger Varian’s
first
Group 1 winning colt and I think that was a reasonable enough excuse for not having maximum confidence today.
Kingston Hill won today in the style of a stayer and I dispute that he showed a "turn of foot" in winning the race. Most of the field had their tongues hanging at their knees well before the finish.
Just as I thought Kingston Hill was the one to be on today, I now think he is one to avoid, given the typical overreaction from the Bookmaking fraternity.
Looking at the form of the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy this year we have a maiden in second, a maiden winner in third, a Wolverhampton maiden 4th placer in fourth and a Tipperary 9f maiden winner in fifth place. 5/1 for the Derby on the back of that? 8/1 for the Guineas on the back of that?
Why are bookies generally driving better cars than punters again?
Answers to be emailed to:-
iamgullible@compulsivebadvalueseeker.co.uk
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Andyod..Interesting comments…Firstly JS was easy money e/w steal..2nd I said Century wasn’t as highly rated as JS and would not like ground and lastly the time was 8 seconds slower than standard…which suited the winner who has only ever won on soft ground and if you look at the very easy ride Ryan Moore gave JS it was obvious not many inc JS were particularly happy on the ground…JS could not quicken on the ground …and only got beaten by 1 horse who is now 6/1 2nd fav for derby…On better ground next year Im sure of the two JS will be better horse ..so a lot to look forward to next year and yes Ive taken 50s with Skybet too however JS cv doesn’t look that bad now does it,,from the lowly race at Naas to Group 1 2nd ,,,Welcome to the party Andy…hope you had your horse in first 3…but I bet he wasn’t 25/1 like mine..lol
I don’t back the horses TTL just follow them at a distance.I live on the west coast of the US (Sacramento)and none of the racing sites allow overseas betting in the US.But I follow British and Irish racing with a passion.I joined a syndicate that owns Angela’s Dream and Mordanmijobsworth and have had a wonderful summer watching them from afar.Next weekend is the BC at Santa Anita and I plan to be there.
Steve, I read your earlier posts. A fair summary, perhaps, but hardly a ringing endorsement for KH.
As I mentioned, I think 5s for The Derby is poor value, as would anyone else when 12s was available elsewhere (he’s 10s now) Boylesports go 12s for the Guineas, which I think is outstanding value. But, as has been said many times, value is in the eye of the beholder.
There will often be a bookie who’s out of line in post-race quotes. Maybe our 5/1 rep couldn’t get a call from his traders in time to hand over his slip to CH4 and wanted to take no chances. Perhaps it was just a difference of opinion.
Post-race quotes for the Derby winners who came from that race:
Camelot 3/1
High Chaparral 14/1
Motivator 16/1
Authorized 12/1I don’t back the horses TTL just follow them at a distance.I live on the west coast of the US (Sacramento)and none of the racing sites allow overseas betting in the US.But I follow British and Irish racing with a passion.I joined a syndicate that owns Angela’s Dream and Mordanmijobsworth and have had a wonderful summer watching them from afar.Next weekend is the BC at Santa Anita and I plan to be there.
That’s pretty cool Andy, the best of both worlds….Calafornia weather and a couple of nice horses to keep an interest in, in Ireland. I see both have had wins, good luck there (and don’t forget your friends on here when you fancy them
)I have a brother out your way, he stays in Santa Barbara but I haven’t managed out there yet, I really should make the effort.
The BC will be pretty special, hope you manage to have a couple of punts there, it will be interesting to see how the Fugue gets on in the BC Turf and if Magician will line up in that one or the BC Mile, I don’t think we saw the best of him in the St James Palace, I’d rather judge him on his Irish 2000 Gns run. If he does go in the Mile, that would be an interesting tussle with Olympic Glory, although Wise Dan, who I know nothing of, is getting touted pretty heavily.
It’s a strange thing this betting restriction, I would have thought on line with a UK bookmaker would not interfere with local betting restrictions, however I found out when I was on Holiday in Marseille in July that there was indeed a problem. I had my laptop with me, and managed a couple of bets online (and a win
) before getting a message that "you appear to be placing bets from outwith the UK which is restricted", or something to that effect, so that was the end of that.Best of luck at the BC, send us back the local tic tac
Steve, I read your earlier posts. A fair summary, perhaps, but hardly a ringing endorsement for KH.
As I mentioned, I think 5s for The Derby is poor value, as would anyone else when 12s was available elsewhere (he’s 10s now) Boylesports go 12s for the Guineas, which I think is outstanding value. But, as has been said many times, value is in the eye of the beholder.
There will often be a bookie who’s out of line in post-race quotes. Maybe our 5/1 rep couldn’t get a call from his traders in time to hand over his slip to CH4 and wanted to take no chances. Perhaps it was just a difference of opinion.
Post-race quotes for the Derby winners who came from that race:
Camelot 3/1
High Chaparral 14/1
Motivator 16/1
Authorized 12/1Joe, I don’t see how it was possible to give a "ringing endorsement" to Kingston Hill, given that his trainer had never saddled a Group 1 winning colt prior to the race. I like the horse but he is not in the hands of a classic winning trainer as yet. It is always wise to avoid getting carried away by horses who win a long way on soft ground and I don’t think that was a good field at all on Saturday.
I like that you try to give the benefit of the doubt to the rep’s but Kingston Hill was 5/1 with William Hill when I quoted him last night and he is 5/1 with William Hill as I type this. They have Australia at 4/1 favourite and you cannot really offer the "difference of opinion" excuse when Paddy Power are 5/1 Australia and 10/1 Kingston Hill. The fact is that William Hill are rank bad value and should be ashamed of themselves with two horses at such odds, so far away from the race.
Kingston Hill makes no appeal whatsoever to me at 12/1 for the 2000 Guineas. He has done nothing to prove he would have the pace to be competitive against better, and faster, opponents than he faced on Saturday. Racing Post Trophy winners just don’t tend to win 2000 Guineas the following year. Camelot managed to get there by a neck on softish ground but that was a poor renewal. Camelot also won his Racing Post Trophy on good ground rather than the slog that was around six and a half secconds slower this year.
As Captain Kirk said to Scotty:-
"I will bite my Spock if Kingston Hill wins the 2000 Guineas"
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well Steve, the fact that Hills go 5/1 can only be a reflection of how impressed they were. I’m with you that it is bad value, but Hills are entitled to their opinion too. They are far and away the leading retail bookmakers at the moment and I’ve always found them willing to lay bigger bets than their rivals. And they’re on your side with KH’s Guineas chance – 10/1
The toothmarks on your Spock should have faded by Derby day
I am looking forward to Magician also.Mordanmijobsworth was involved in a finish with him in his first runs at Leopardstown/Dundalk so that gives me a Platonic interest in Magician.Angela’s Dream will try to get listed placed before going on the block at the end of the year.We were pleased to have our two horses rated 90+ this year.Can’t imagine us being so lucky next year but who knows?
Well Steve, the fact that Hills go 5/1 can only be a reflection of how impressed they were. I’m with you that it is bad value, but Hills are entitled to their opinion too. They are far and away the leading retail bookmakers at the moment and I’ve always found them willing to lay bigger bets than their rivals. And they’re on your side with KH’s Guineas chance – 10/1
The toothmarks on your Spock should have faded by Derby day
I’m not having a go at William Hill in general Joe, just their odds for the Derby in particular. It is all very well being impressed but should two horses really be making up 37% of a book framed for a race 7 months away?
If anything Australia is worse value than Kingston Hill for the race, given that he floored an odds on shot who folded like Granny’s old squeeze box in a 4 runner Group Three. An unlucky second on his debut, when really slowly away, Australia went off 3/10 next time and was more workmanlike than anything. His three races have seen 37 subsequent runs since and have coughed up two wins, a Roscommon maiden and a Gowran maiden. The idea that this makes him 4/1 favourite for the Derby is sheer lunacy even if his trainer has given him the usual:-
"Now listen, you know, of all the racehorses I’ve ever trained, this fella is
definitely
one of them."
Mug prices in my opinion.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Wonder will he be transferred over to Ballydoyle during the winter? Young Smith loves the buzz of winning I watched him after Tabor’s horse won the BC and he was positively juvenile with delight.I guess Michael is getting too old to attend in person.Young O’Brien, Magnier and Smith are rearing to take over the operation.Magnier is now signing the dockets and Smithie is leading them in.
Kingston Hill makes no appeal whatsoever to me at 12/1 for the 2000 Guineas. He has done nothing to prove he would have the pace to be competitive against better, and faster, opponents than he faced on Saturday.
Racing Post Trophy winners just don’t tend to win 2000 Guineas the following year. Camelot managed to get there by a neck on softish ground but that was a poor renewal. Camelot also won his Racing Post Trophy on good ground rather than the slog that was around six and a half secconds slower this year.
As Captain Kirk said to Scotty:-
"I will bite my Spock if Kingston Hill wins the 2000 Guineas"
You heard it here first and Spock was never in danger.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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