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The maiden winner Century seems to be Aiden O’Brien’s big hope for this Saturday’s Racing Post Trophy. In what has become something of a benefit for the stable in recent years, it had been mooted that Geoffrey Chaucer (or Chowser as O’Brien calls him) might have been their main representative. A potentially fascinating runner is Toormore, although the Hannon stable also have 3 from 3 runner Chief Barker entered. I wouldn’t have expected that the Racing Post Trophy is an ideal race for Guineas hope Toormore but I read recently that the owners were keen to have him go into the winter as the top rated two year old. I would have thought the long term target was more important but hey ho, I don’t own the horse.
Toormore is 6/4 with a run and best priced 5/2 all in. Remarkably, O’Brien’s Century is also as low as 5/2, so there we have it, a horse who won a maiden 8 days ago is the same odds as a Group 1 winner.
I think I would rather take 33/1 on Century for The Derby in the knowledge that he will contract in price as long as he runs well on Saturday. If Toormore does turn up and beats Century it wouldn’t be the end of the world and if Century wins on Saturday his price will as short as Peruvian Chief’s proverbial Gnat’s tadger.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I think there are two ways to look at this, in a betting sense I mean. Either take the 6/4 (with a run)on Toormore at the moment, I think if he turns up he wins and I doubt he will be a bigger price than that on the day. I don’t think there is anything that has shown form solid enough to beat him.
Or alternatively, take a chance that he won’t run, and grab a price elsewhere that will undoubtedly shorten when, or if, he is withdrawn.
I take the same view as you Steve that this is not a race that he would normally take in, given that he is as low as 7-1 for the 2000gns next year. It’s not impossible, Camelot took this route, but he was the only winner of the 2000 Gns that did in the past 20 years (and probably further back than that). On top of that, there is serious doubt that the ground conditions will suit. They might take the chance on good to soft, which it currently is, but with rain forecast it may well be soft and I doubt they will take any chance on that.
O’brien has a great record in this race, and Century, as they say, could be anything. He won his maiden well, but I would want to see the type of form needed for this rather than what might be. Buonarroti and O’Briens other two don’t look likely winners, and it’s doubtful they all will run.
Pinzolo will handle the ground and is interesting, but whether his form is good enough I’m not sure. He won his maiden when clearly unfancied and won again in a conditions stakes at Newbury running on strongly, but that was in a five runner race which he won by a head.
Kingston Hill could go off favourite if Toormore fails to trap, and has run a couple of decent races winning his maiden and then a Group3 race a couple of lengths from one of O’Briens, Oklahoma City. This gives O’Brien a good yardstick, knowing how much his four need to do if he decides they would do better.
This race could cut up quite badly, with a lot depending on the weather. One which I was very impressed with, even if he might not have as much improvement in him as some of these might, is Somewhat. He has five runs under his belt and was second twice at Newmarket, with a very decent win in between those runs in a listed race at Newbury, in his last three races. The Newbury win was very impressive, pulling right away at the end. The two Newmarket races could easily have been a further two wins, particularly the last run (Group 2)where he looked to have the race won, but for Paul Cole’s Berkshire to run wide and catch him out finishing against the rail and away from the race. He battled on really well and looks a typically tough as teak Mark Johnstone horse. He hasn’t run on worse than good, but I think his action looks like he would handle softer.
If, and it’s a big if, it cuts up like I think it might, then Somewhat at 8/1 with Ladbrokes would be huge. Fahrr was good to me ante post last weekend, so I can afford to be a bit reckless and hope for the best this weekend.
Good luck
I will be backing Kingston Hill. Backed him on his debut at York, because I liked the breeding. He is by Mastercraftsman, who has made an excellent start to his stud career, out of a French mare who was a group winner, and is by Rainbow Quest. Liked the way he went about things at York, so backed him in the Group 3 at Newmarket, where he won at 15/2. Think he will stay a mile and a quarter next year, 50/50 as to whether he will stay a mile and a half. Still a bit green at Newmarket, and still on an upward curve.
I like The Grey Gatsby at 16’s as an each/way chance for this I haven’t got a clue what the weather is like up Donny but the rest of the country is like a large lake which with the extra furlong will suit him as he takes a while to get going, hopefully not too many drop out and he gets a decent gallop to chase.
Toormore swims doggy paddle so wont run.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
I find it very interesting that most people are saying Century is Coolmore best horse..this is utter tripe..betting wise yes hes had 1 race and 1 win though it came as a surprise to them and consequently supplemented him for racing post…About 6 weeks ago I heard that Johan Strauss was near the top of Ballydoyle pecking order…he was entered for everything..Now since then JS has ran at Newmarket where JOB faced the stewards for the most disgraceful ride Ive seen…and then at Naas last Sunday..watched a horse take a 2-3 length lead over a shorter trip…again JOB did little but use hands and heels to catch the leader which he did but too late..the third horse was 10 lengths away.Now then Aiden stated prior to racing that this horse is a monster who has only raced at halfspeed…and he has shown he has gears and can quicken…Yes hes got to beat Toormore which admittedly will be difficult..though Toormore hasn’t raced over a mile…but I don’t think Toormore will run..and contrary to what Ive read on here the Hannons aren’t keen to run him either regardless of rain…and 1 last factor how often do we see 3 or 4 Coolmore horses with a fav being 2nd or third…I think at the very least he will be in the first 3 and just tonight I see a major betting change for Johann from 25s into 14s.
If you think Century is Ballydoyle No1 hope think again ,about 6 weeks ago I was told about Johann Strauss from a reliable source being near top of the pecking order for Coolmore..Since then hes raced at Nkt over a mile where he flew to make fourth however a few yards more and he of left them all for dust..and JOB consequently headed for the stewards room for the most incompetent ride Ive ever seen…bring on last Sunday at Naas..and again an even shorter trip..7f and JOB again gave 2-3 lengths at a course where its difficult to peg back a leader..not only that but again Joseph gave him a very very soft ride..almost paying off as he was only btn by a half length…Now Aiden has stated this horse is a monster who has only raced at half speed..hes raced over a mile and deff needs further…he has gears and speed and so far he hasn’t been ridden correctly…add to this Toormore in my opinion wont run not due to rain but I believe there not overkeen on running him till next year..now Toormore looks good but he likes good ground and hes not run over a mile..add to thid Coolmore may have 3/4 runners..how often do we see the fav 3rd/4th..and loose to a bigger priced horse..this horse has it all to do but at the very least he should be in first 3…incidentally major betting change for Johann tonight into 14s from 25s
No big surprise at the news that Toormore will not be running.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
- Total Posts 764
If you think Century is Ballydoyle No1 hope think again ,about 6 weeks ago I was told about Johann Strauss from a reliable source being near top of the pecking order for Coolmore..Since then hes raced at Nkt over a mile where he flew to make fourth however a few yards more and he of left them all for dust..and JOB consequently headed for the stewards room for the most incompetent ride Ive ever seen…bring on last Sunday at Naas..and again an even shorter trip..7f and JOB again gave 2-3 lengths at a course where its difficult to peg back a leader..not only that but again Joseph gave him a very very soft ride..almost paying off as he was only btn by a half length…Now Aiden has stated this horse is a monster who has only raced at half speed..hes raced over a mile and deff needs further…he has gears and speed and so far he hasn’t been ridden correctly…add to this Toormore in my opinion wont run not due to rain but I believe there not overkeen on running him till next year..now Toormore looks good but he likes good ground and hes not run over a mile..add to thid Coolmore may have 3/4 runners..how often do we see the fav 3rd/4th..and loose to a bigger priced horse..this horse has it all to do but at the very least he should be in first 3…incidentally major betting change for Johann tonight into 14s from 25s
Just watched his two races and he looks interesting for sure at a decent price in a race that lacks a solid-favourite, should definitely still be on the upwards curve, probsbly wouldn’t want to touch any lower than the 16’s that available on paddypower though – just noticed he’s still at 25/1 on skybet, wh and coral so may have a little go on one of those sites. Not one I’ll be putting much money on though!
The stories emanating from Ballydoyle about 2yo’s need to be verified at the track.JS’s effort against Sniper last Saturday would not warrant a bet in a listed race never mind a group race.He ran in fits and starts and his failure to close down Sniper did not bode well to me.
No big surprise at the news that Toormore will not be running.
I am glad he is not taking part. When I heard they were considering running him I had to reach for the inhaler and I don’t even have asthma!
Camelot managed to win both the Racing Post and the 2000 Guineas but he was a different profile of animal to Toormore and you would generally look beyond the winner of a mile race on softish ground at the back end of the season, when trying to spot a future contender for early May at Newmarket.
I like the look of the way Kingston Hill is shaping up but Roger Varian has never been a trainer I look to with a lot of confidence. Maybe I am wrong but I don’t think he gets enough of the big time action considering the well bred animals he gets to train.
Pinzolo is heading the right way but will he make another step forward? I feel Godolphin horses often win first time out and then get the "can only improve" comment from Timeform before their next start, only to fail to go on from their debut. Although this guy did win second time it was a desperate affair, prevailling by a head on the soft from a horse who went to Kempton at 1/5f to lose his maiden tag at the 4th attempt. He looks a bad favourite at current odds.
The Grey Gatsby looks a bit short on the pace front and although it may be a slog of sorts I still worry that he will be short of gears. Outstrip, who beat The Grey Gatsby 3 lengths, went on to finish behind the third that day, Cable Bay, when next seen in The Dewhurst where winner War Command made slightly hard work of getting past Cable Bay. Cable Bay turned the form around with Outstrip by around 5 lengths that day and was having his 7th start, so it lends some support to my theory about Godolphin horses not going on as expected.
A previous poster thinks Johan Strauss has more to give but even with a bad ride it was disappointing that he couldn’t score at 2/7 last time. He wouldn’t be the first horse to look a million dollars on the gallops and about 5000 euros on the racecourse. Not one for me.
Century could be anything but on his second start, so quickly on the heels of his debut, in Group 1 company he is surely priced on his trainer’s record and reputation, therefore representing poor value.
Chief Barker is coming here instead of Toormore and has progressed via Nursery and Listed company. Although his latest victim, Chriselliam, went on to win the fillies mile, sending Willie Carson into spasmodic dancing that made Ricky Gervais’ dance in The Office look like Fred Astaire in terms of control, she was 28/1 that day and was rated 20lbs lower than Rizeena going into the race. I’m chucking a couple of boxes of Saxa over that form and ruling Chief Barker out of this one.
Somewhat has had five runs and some decent bits of form but he’s not tackled soft ground yet and the Johnston stable is pretty quiet at the moment and never really been seen dining at the top table this year. He’s not for me.
Buonarotti won a maiden by over 8 lengths on his second start but that was over 9f on yielding ground at Tipperary, which is a bit of a slog for young horses and he’s surely facing better opposition here.
Probably a race just to watch but if I had to pick one, it would be a case of holding my hand over the part of the newspaper that says R.Varian and then underlining the name Kingston Hill.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
- Total Posts 764
Johann Strauss now best-priced at 14/1……….awful price and I definitely won’t be touching it.
Guys Coolmore were very surprised when century won last time out..however he hasn’t raced in soft and he hasn’t travelled/raced in uk..now JS has raced and should have slaughtered opposition on his debut…and then came a sharpener over 7f…which again JOB hands and heels gave a soft lead to Sniper…and then realised to late he was actually in a race…then add to this the jockeys…hang on I thought JStrauss was outsider of 3…certainly was betting wise..so why has Ryan Moore taken ride… and by the way..would look really rich if JOB didn’t stick with fav instead of 25/1 outsider..lol…oh and Kingston Hill fans ..just where do you think Oaklahoma City is in Ballydoyle 2yr old pecking order… and for those who don’t know I told you yesterday that Toormore would not run…well well well…hes now a non runner… 1 more thing..Johann Strauss now down to 10/1…it gets better …lol.Theres none as blind as those who will not see !
Come on guys this is worrying…Johann Strauss in from 25/1 to 10s currently in 24 hrs…Ive been touting this horse for about 6 weeks ..he will be in first 3 for definite..however I think hel win…JOB doesn’t have much choice as the stable jockey alarm bells would definetly be ringing if he were to choose an outsider of 3 at 25/1.lol…Enter Century a very good horse but Im reliably informed by no means near top of the pecking order at Ballydoyle..a great surprise when he won his maiden albeit well…and consequently supplemented…but for the last 8 weeks the noises from Ballydoyle about JStrauss suggest he could be something special…I share these sentiments and as I said in pre post Toormore is non runner…Guys he looks nailed on….like to know others thoughts….bet of the yr so far ..oh and if your interested Johannn Strauss currently 50/1 derby!!!Though Ive also backed Australia @25s…
If Johann Strauss is really that good why not make the one entry? Does landing a 25/1 touch matter that much that they need to create a smokescreen?
I would suggest from a punting prospective this is a race best left alone.
Stilvi…Its no smokescreen Century has shown little at home but his racing on course is very good…he was supplemented because of his maiden win which was a surprise.Now heres the thing how can JOB the stable jockey desert at 3/1 Ballydoyle crackpot for a 25/1 no hoper..exactly..he cant…hence his choice to ride Century…afterall he was supplemented at great cost..JStrauss now..2 races that he should of destroyed opposition not played with them…if you get a chance to see his two races I suggest you watch them…there very informative.and again seems obvious now why Coolmore sent JS to Nkt for his debut (no other 2 year old from Ballydoyle has made a debut in uk this year)…Obvious because we all saw his class unfortunately we also witnessed JOB complacency and that’s why he ended in the stewards room…No Toormore either..this gets better…It wont take a wonder horse to win this race but in Johann Strauss they just may have one!..Oh and if you look at the opposition..namely Kingston Hill..well he beat Oaklahoma City.. I wonder where he is in Coolmore 2yr old pecking order!..lol
Since you insist on advocating for one of the Strauss family;might I remind you that he was very unimpressive at Naas last week.Seemed to run in spurts.Incidentally Aidan would no more let Joseph ride the less fancied runner from the yard than he would let his daughter ride the fav. from the yard.Any time Heffo or Moore rides a winner from multiple entries from the hard they invariably start at long odds.So whatever about Joseph’s opinion the choice of rides(best horse) is determined by Aidan not Joseph.I cannot recall either Moore or Heffo starting shorter than Joseph.
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