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Here’s a simple system that is easy to follow and is aimed more for the occasional racegoer or punter.
Simply look at the Selection Box inside the Racing Post and back any horses that have a Probable SP of 6/1 or more. That is the odds gien in the Racing Post itself directly under the list of runners in a race.
Purely at random, I will pick two tipsters – Robin Goodfellow at the Daily Mail and Templegate at the Sun.
Today’s bets are…
Templegate
Kelso 2:30 Cousin Guillame
Wind 2:40 Stomp
Wind 3:10 Tobacco Road
Wind 3:40 Black Scnapps
Redc 4:20 Caridadi (nb)
Wind 4:40 Barwick
Redc 5:20 Irondale ExpressRobin Goodfellow
Redc 2:50 Confidential Creek
Kelso 3:00 Endeavour
Kelso 3:30 Rhymers Ha’
Redc 4:20 Shirocco Passion
Wind 4:40 Significant Move
Wind 5:10 Thecornishcowboy
Redc 5:20 Lady YeatsThe results will show what the profit/loss is if a £1 each way bet had been placed on each selection.
Nice clean personal site – always interesting to read how others go about things and I guess none of us are too old to learn?
Possibly.
Interesting concept but far too many selections for myself.
Billy's Outback Shack
Interesting concept but far too many selections for myself.
Yes, I am just trying to give it a go for a week to see what happens, if someone is going to the races and has no real idea about horseracing, then apart from picking a horse because you like the name, this gives a person an alternative. With a little bit of luck it’s a case of "let the pros pick the horses and you collect the winnings". Also, they will restrict themselves to the racecard at that course, rather than 3 meetings like the picks above.
Results…
Templegate
Kelso 2:30 Cousin Guillame – unplaced
Wind 2:40 Stomp –Won 5/1
Wind 3:10 Tobacco Road –
Won 5/1
Wind 3:40 Black Scnapps – unplaced
Redc 4:20 Caridadi (nb) – unplaced
Wind 4:40 Barwick – unplaced
Redc 5:20 Irondale Express – unplacedRobin Goodfellow
Redc 2:50 Confidential Creek – non runner
Kelso 3:00 Endeavour – pulled up
Kelso 3:30 Rhymers Ha’ – unplaced
Redc 4:20 Shirocco Passion – unplaced
Wind 4:40 Significant Move – unplaced
Wind 5:10 Thecornishcowboy –Redc 5:20 Lady Yeats –
Won 9/2
Templegate +£2.00
StakesReturns
£16.00
Robin Goodfellow +£0.45
StakesReturns
£12.45
Today’s bets are…
Templegate
Pont 3:10 Foxy Clarets
Pont 4:15 Amralah
Pont 5:15 Poetic Verse
South 5:05 MeshardalRobin Goodfellow
Carl 5:25 For Instance
Pont 4:15 Stepping Ahead (nb)
Pont 5:15 High Office
South 3:00 Very First BladeThe results will show what the profit/loss is if a £1 each way bet had been placed on each selection.
Results…
Templegate
Pont 3:10 Foxy Clarets – unplaced
Pont 4:15 Amralah – non runner
Pont 5:15 Poetic Verse – non runner
South 5:05 Meshardal – 2nd 7/2Robin Goodfellow
Carl 5:25 For Instance – 3rd 16/1
Pont 4:15 Stepping Ahead (nb) – 2nd 5/1
Pont 5:15 High Office – unplaced
South 3:00 Very First Blade – 2nd 6/1Templegate
Stakes £4.00
Returns £1.70
TodayB/fwd +£2.00
Running Total
Robin Goodfellow
Stakes £8.00
Returns £8.40
Today +£0.40
B/fwd +£0.45
Running Total +£0.85I’m also a fan of the two paper tipsters…
especially templegate who seems to do well in the big races…
i myself look at their picks..
look for value 4/1 or greater
always back each-way
like to place alphabets, L31 / 62 e/w bets, L63 / 126 e/w bets, and sometimes 7 horse 240 e/w bets, i only do them to small stakes units 5p, 10p…i try too look for races between 8-14 runners.
try to stay away from novice races
and im a bit weary of 8-9 runner handicap races as all to often a horse or two will get withdrawn at the last minute leaving only 7 runners hence only 2 places paid…i also wait for days when there are a few race meeting so i can pick and choose the best possible races..
i also take a note of the spot form in the sun newspaper, the black dot by the horse picked by the racing computer (im sure people reading this will know what im talking about), it gives one horse a rating of 99 and the rest less, i check the horses with 99 and 98 ratings and check what the odds are on these horses if one of them decent 4/1+ then its a possibility.
i also like when a horse has won its last race..
Some good thinking there, I used to do a 2p each way Goliath many years ago which costs £9.88 and if nothing else, gave me an interest in quite a few races. I picked up over £100 on one occasion with 5 winners and a couple more placed.
If 8 selections place at 1/5th the odds all at a price of 5/1 then the Goliath pays £130 or thereabouts for a 2p each way bet. It may suit one of your methods of picking that you mention especially when the evening racing starts and there are 5 or 6 meetings a day. I’m sure there will be a few more black dots on those days.
With regards to your last comment, there’s a nice little system that I have on my blog, I call it "Handicap Hustlers" which looks for horses that have won either or both of their last 2 runs. Maybe it is something that you might find useful. The link is on my Systems page.
Good luck!!
It is interesting that you mention your Handicap Hustlers system
Trendyrich
because I was looking at it today and found the concept interesting.
Perhaps you might post it here for others to see and perhaps comment on.
I noted 4 horses via the two systems for today at the Lingfield meeting: –
Claude Monet – Appyjack – Chantrea – Glorious Empire which found a winner and two places.
I think at the right prices they may be ideal as e/w singles and doubles but if only a layer could be found to take Stop At A Winner (on line) I would be a happy man.
Billy's Outback Shack
It tends to work best on the turf from 1st June to 31st August, I’ve never followed it on the all weather or on the turf outside the period mentioned.
For anyone not wishing to go to my site here is an explanation of what it is about…
Target races are flat handicaps on the turf with at least 8 runners but do not include Apprentice, Amateur Rider, Lady Rider, Selling or Maiden Handicap races. We’re after just ordinary flat handicap races.
Find such a race, note the top and bottom weights, then work out what the middle point is…
Top weight: 10-00
Bottom weight 7-10
Middle point is 8-12Top weight: 9-09
Bottom weight 8-04
Middle point is 9-00½In instances where there is a half ignore it so in the second example the middle point is 9-00.
From that middle point going up, note the first runner that has won either or both of the last 2 races, but they must have been run this season. This is your selection.
If there are 2 horses then your selection is the one carrying the lower weight, if they both carry the same weight then it’s down to you.
Go through the cards and note any selections that you see and their probable SP. The selection is the one with the lowest probable SP. However, if you are a fan of perm betting i.e. Lucky 15/21/63 or Yankee/Canadian/Heinz then there’s no reason why you cannot put some of the selections into one of those bets. From my analysis in the past there have been days where two or more horses have won…
06-Jun-08: Auntie Marne 3/1 + Precision Break 11/2 (from 8 selections, 4 others were placed 100/30 9/1 5/2 15/2)
07-Jun-08: Wibbadune 2/1 + My Learned Friend 3/1 (from 12 selections, 2 others were placed 5/1 7/1)
09-Jun-08: Rock’N’Roller 6/1 + Namir 10/1 (from 7 selections, 3 others were placed 7/1 5/4 16/1)
21-Jun-08: Summon Up Theblood 11/4 + Silver Seeker 11/4 + Marning Star 8/1 (from 15 selections, 3 others placed 11/10 13/2 11/2).I know those stats are from a few years back but I picked them to try and show different scenarios.
06-Jun-08 shows 6 of the 8 hitting the frame
07-Jun-08 2 small winners from 12 selections
09-Jun-08 77/1 double plus good priced places, 5 from 7 in the frame
21-Jun-08 125½/1 treble but from 15 selectionsThe stats for the month of June 2008…
Selections 201
Winners 26
Placed 82 (includes winners)
£1 win placed on all 201 selection would have produced a loss of £62.37By just selecting one a day as described above, i.e. the selection with lowest probable SP…
Selections 30
Winners 6
Placed 16 (includes winners)
£1 win placed on all 30 selection would have produced a loss of £12.36I just noted here the results for June 2008 and whilst they may not look that great it should be taken into consideration that this is just one month. I could have picked another month that showed profits, but I believe that people should also realise that losses can be incurred. Following systems does have it’s ups and downs.
Taking the same month from earlier years where I kept records…
June 2007 – did not follow
June 2006 – 28 daily selections*, 9 winners, 16 places, £0.83 profit
*2 were non-runners
June 2005 – 28 daily selections*, 8 winners, 13 places, £2.55 profit
*2 were non-runners
June 2004 – 29 daily selections*, 5 winners, 16 places, £14.88 loss
*1 was a non-runnerI have lots more stats but feel that this gives a good indication of what the system produces. I have worked on improving it, i.e. tailoring it to my own preferences, by what is described above is the original system design.
I am always on the look out for different ideas
Trendyrich
and found a little inspiration from the
Paper Tipster
which may help you or others.
I do find The Daily Mirror reasonable good for the racing pages and looked to see if both main tipsters (Newsboy and Bouverie) jointly selected the same horse and if the FcSp was 6/1 or better.
Kempton 6.10 PASTORAL WITNESS came close at 5/1 and fell short of the favoured 6/1.
Towcester 4.10 FAIR BRAMBLE was selected by both tipsters and had a FcSp of 6/1 As it happened Oliver Sherwood is indicated as a trainer with a 16.7% strike rate at Towcester and L. Aspell is shown as a rider also with a good record at the course. Incidental but always boosts ones confidence.
Available in the live market at 11/2 at the time I checked.
It won at 4/1
(how I wished I had been on!)
Billy's Outback Shack
[attachment=0:3f4wbzcr]Nap.jpg[/attachment:3f4wbzcr]When I used to read the Daily Mail regularly, I used to keep an eye on the 2 tipsters there to see if they agreed on horses, I can’t remember the second one but Robin Goodfellow is the main man.
Another I try to keep an eye out for is times when a tipster’s nap goes against most of the others. By that I mean when you see a tipster nap a horse when most of the other tipsters are going for the favourite. If I see this I then look at the race type and as long as it’s not a 16+ runner handicap where the tips are spread about, then it might be worth taking that into consideration. I have attached an example of this sort of thing from today’s Selection Box for the 4:30 at Ludlow. Here we can see that the Sun has napped Somemothersdohavem and is the only one to go for that horse. This is not a great example but is the best I could find at short notice. The thinking behind keeping an eye open for this is that perhaps the tipster napping alone has noticed, or knows something, that none of the others have.
The race was an 11 runner class 3 handicap and Somemothersdohavem finished 5th. This race was used more to give an example, I prefer it if the other tipsters mostly favour the favourite, whereas in this race they were spread pretty eenly over 4 other horses. I will try to keep an eye out for a better example and post it before the off time.
Just before I retire for the night having had my Horlicks I thought to check the handicap hustlers that I marked off this morning and despite my dislike for Wolverhampton I must say it did rather well.
The only D. Mirror double selection (6/1+) was making its racing debut and I would not have bothered, needless to say it did not do well!
Billy's Outback Shack
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