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The Official Handicapper

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  • #3051
    Smithy
    Member
    • Total Posts 720

    Tomorrow in the 3.50 at Lingfield, James Fanshawe’s Moon On The Spoon looks the recipient of some ‘special’ treatment from the handicapper.

    For those unfamiliar with the filly, she looks a typically progressive Fanshawe type whose latest run – a second to the in-form Macorville – represents a very solid piece of form. That run, off a mark of 76, was considered good enough to raise her 2lb to 78.

    Tomorrow she runs on the AW off a mark of 70, presumably based on her one previous start on the surface. Given that this also happened to be her qualifying run, and the fact that it was her first start in seven months, how can the handicapper take the view that she is an 8lb inferior horse on a surface she has tackled once.

    There was a similar anomaly with a horse called Bedouin Blue earlier in the season – I am sure there are several others – but it strikes me as very odd that this loophole is available for such a lightly-raced individual.

    Am i getting my knickers in a twist over nothing? I am sure that the owners of her opponents tomorrow won’t be overkeen on her presence.

    Rant over.

    #77980
    Aragorn
    Member
    • Total Posts 2208

    I saw the horse run last time out and thought she would win soon. Thanks for the tip-off!

    #77981
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    Fully agree with you Smithy, and remember the Bedoiun Blue race.

    Looking at the latest supplement to the racing Calendar there are a couple of juveniles given similarly valuable treatment. Kyshanty’s AW mark of 78 is 4lb below his turf rating despite the fact that the drop to 5f was clearly a factor in his below-par effort on his sole polytrack start. Michael Bell’s Spritza has a 6 lb lower AW mark judged on one piece of evidence.

    (Edited by davidjohnson at 4:45 pm on Sep. 26, 2006)

    #77982
    Maurice
    Participant
    • Total Posts 355

    Wouldn’t the handicapper react according to the subsequent form of the other horses in the respective races? Would he also take into account breeding predilections towards one surface over another where appropriate?

    I haven’t studied any of the races in question but if the subsequent form of the AW race has turned out to be inferior to the Turf race, surely he’d be entitled to take that into account?

    Jsut guessing.

    #77983
    Smithy
    Member
    • Total Posts 720

    The maiden looks pretty strong form to me!

    Still confused.

    #77984
    yeats
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2927

    It’s not often the handicapper’s proved wrong is it? Look at Rainbows Edge today, the "experts" on RUK said he was thrown in with a pitchfork and Junipers Girl badly handicapped and look what happened.

    #77985
    seabird
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2924

    Not sure that that example proves the handicapper right, Yeats.

    It does prove that the horses are able to make fools of us!

    Colin

    #77986
    Aragorn
    Member
    • Total Posts 2208

    Beaten a neck, was backed today as well.. I took the 3.8 or whatever it was last night so i’m gutted. Good shout anyway though Smithy.. Why is it always a 16/1 shot that does you?!?!?!

    #77987
    yeats
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2927

    Hard luck smithy, well sussed out but these handicappers take some beating don’t they.

    #77988
    Chompy Draw Boy
    Member
    • Total Posts 29

    Man On The Spoon is one of the biggest dodgers in racing, won’t matter what mark she’s in off next time, she still won’t do it. Dropped the lot at Ripon

    #77989
    Smithy
    Member
    • Total Posts 720

    Quote: from yeats on 5:18 pm on Sep. 27, 2006[br]Hard luck smithy, well sussed out but these handicappers take some beating don’t they.<br>

    I didn’t suss anything out – I just wanted to know how the handicapper could rate her as though she wouldn’t be as effective on the AW on the evidence of one run. I am still none the wiser, irrespective of the result.

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