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I have to say that I find the Oaks most uninspiring this year, my only ante post (Beauty O’G) is absent and I keep changing my mind. I would like to oppose Sariska and Rainbow View (strongly) and have currently narrowed it down to Perfect Truth, Midday and Wadaat. Forecasts methinks.
I’ve got to be honest and say that sometimes the size of the occasion keeps me content alone, without there having to be the greatest of fields. I wouldn’t know how this compares to previous Oakes anyway, but the fact that Sariska, Rainbow View and another few handy sorts are in there is good enough for me.
I’ll stick my my one and only selection which is Rainbow View at 11/2 & 5/1.
What’s everyones interpretation of not getting the trip anyway ? Is it not running to their mark, or getting badly outpaced, or for some is it not winnin or being in contention ?
Having done my AP dough on Three Moons, i’ll be having a small interest on Clive Brittain’s horse. Listening to his interviews this week, you’d think he was talking about the second coming of Ouija Board.
Might have an each way squeak in an open race.
I’m uninspired by the market leaders and have had a few quid each-way on Mr Bolger’s at 16/1. Wasn’t a bad run in the Irish Guineas, better prospects of staying than most.
I think Oh Goodness Me needs softer ground than what she’ll get tomorrow. She was disappoionting the only time she ran in a decent race on ground better than soft. IMO it’s unusual for a horse to be as effective on both Good ground and Heavy ground, especially at the top level.
I’m going to go for Perfect Truth myself – I think Murtagh rides Epsom better than any other jockey (except Fallon probably)
Ok, completely unbiased race preview.
Sariska
Thrice-raced filly & trainer has always thought a lot of her. Won a hot Newmarket maiden in November before reappearance in the Fred Darling finishing 4th, might have been 3rd had she come out of the stalls better. Stepped up in trip for the Musidora where there was no early pace and the sprint finish suited this daughter of Pivotal. The handicap on the card over the same trip was run 1.2 seconds faster. Doubt about stamina on pedigree and may prefer a softer surface. No value at 5/2 at all, happily overlooked.
Rainbow View
Disappointed in the 1000 Guineas when 5th after unbeaten juvenile campaign ending with the Fillies’ Mile. Trainer has said good to firm isn’t a problem, but prefers a softer surface. Stamina is again a doubt & Gosden has said she’ll definitely get 10f but the other 2f is a slight worry. Also a big horse so worry if Epsom will suit. 2nd & 3rd from the 1000 Guineas both demolished in the Irish equivalent and winner rated just 87. Big question mark whether she’s trained on.
Midday
Looked like a big outsider until the Oaks Trial. Beaten cosily by Debussy before beating July Jasmine by 6L. The 4th, Spirit Of Dubai, disappointed big-time in the Italian Oaks although the 8th, Wadaat, finished 2nd. Trainer’s record in the race respected but doesn’t look anywhere near good enough after a narrow win over Three Moons and defeats by Enticement, Golden Stream and Debussy.
Phillipina
Very disappointing in 2 maidens but still gambled on for Oaks glory. Stayed on at the death in the Cheshire Oaks but still beaten a short head. Is a worry however that she seems 3rd in the pecking order for Stoute behind Leocorno & Enticement. Maidens also have a dreadful record in the Oaks with just 1 placed and 19 unplaced in the past 14 years. Extremely skinny price taking everything into account.
Perfect Truth
Came alive at Chester, setting a searching gallop & clinged on for victory at the death from the above. Trainer’s record in the Oaks very respected when having just 1 runner (3 winners, 0 placed, 0 unplaced) & form suggests there’s almost nothing between her & Sariska (Hidden Brief beaten 2L by Star Ruby who was beaten 4L by Sariska in the Musidora. Hidden Brief beaten 5L by Perfect Truth). Has no stamina doubts & sure to improve, worry is that she’s had 8 career runs & possibly exposed, but Imagine and Shahtoush both won this for the trainer after extremely similar race patterns. Could make-all in a small field with no pace. Very good each-way value.
High Heeled
Gamble sparked off on the eve of the Musidora but disappointed in 4th. Destroyed by average horses like Pachattack & Minor Vamp and victory over Four Winds not great form. Four Winds beaten by Taameer & Kite Wood in Autumn Stakes and both finished 5th on seasonal reappearances. Prefers cut, won’t get it here, shouldn’t really be in the field.
Oh Goodness Me
Benefitted from a faster gallop in the Irish 1000 Guineas and stayed on nicely but seems to lack the class required for this and trainer has said she was a soft surface. Hard to see her involved in the finish but might snatch a place.
The Miniver Rose
Richard Hannon loves her and thinks the world of this filly but she constantly gets excited, constantly sweats up and constantly gets beaten.
Tottie
Making up the numbers.
Wadaat
Clive Brittain reckons she’s the daughter of Pegasus which would be about right since Pegasus is a mythological creature. 2nd in the Italian Oaks but flopped in the Oaks Trial, took 3 attempts to break her maiden and just is nowhere near good enough.
Why thank you
(this little emoticon really needs a cigarette coming out of his mouth)I think Oh Goodness Me needs softer ground than what she’ll get tomorrow. She was disappoionting the only time she ran in a decent race on ground better than soft. IMO it’s unusual for a horse to be as effective on both Good ground and Heavy ground, especially at the top level.
You could be right David, but we have limited evidence- my view is that she coped with the ground on Guineas day rather than liked it- pedigree-wise I’d say good Oaks day ground will be fine. Basically her form is as good as many of those shorter in the betting and if she stays she’s likely to be in the first 3.
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In a moment of madness I’ve completely reversed my Oaks position – the 6/1 about Midday is now my saver having placed a ridiculous amount of financial faith (relative to my norm) in Sariska.
Ok, time for my final 1-2-3 before the big race.
The trends say 1st Rainbow View, 2nd and 3rd between Sariska and Perfect Truth.
I say 1st Perfect Truth, 2nd Sariska, 3rd Rainbow View.
i think that Rainbow View has the same type of profile as New Approach. (i know they’re different sex) Champion two year old and flopped in the guineas. only for me to lose faith at epsom. well i aint losing faith tomorrow. i’m going to have chunky bet on her. class, real class, is never lost and she’ll be back on top very soon.
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New Approach hardly ‘flopped’ in the Guineas.
i think that Rainbow View has the same type of profile as New Approach. (i know they’re different sex) Champion two year old and flopped in the guineas.
Flopped in the Guineas!!! thats a bit harsh bfn….he got beaten a head by the Champion miler.
well nutted on the line then. either way i lost a packet.
rainbow view didn’t run that bad either.I’m not keen on this year’s Oaks, but I like the look of the top wo, the rest are an average bunch, last year I got the form line right but the wrong filly, I had Miracle Seeker, a formline similar this year would be High Heeled, but she was beaten with no excuses by Sariska.
So I expect a battle of the top two in the market, Rainbow View has better value so I might take the punt on her, she has the frame for a course like this.
I don’t like Rainbow View at all
1. Champion two year olds don’t generally do well in the Oaks
2. She disappointed in the Guineas, despite claims that it looked a good Oaks trial in retrospect… the Guineas was the target, thats why she started odds on, thats why they bought and removed the perceived opposition.
3. She is likely to get the ground she was said to hate at HQ
(this little emoticon really needs a cigarette coming out of his mouth)
rainbow view didn’t run that bad either.
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