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Well after one of the most difficult Royal meetings I can remember it is now time to move up north and onto another tricky handicap.
How many long distance flat races can be affected so much by the draw?! The 2miles will also take some getting as the rains have really hit the north east over the last 2 days so stamina must be held in abundance!
I have checked recent trends and looked over the form and I have 2 against the field and a solid win bet to cover. If Amanda Perrett sends Arch Villain all this way that could be a tip in itself.
I wouldn’t put anyone off backing Il de Re but to win this race once is difficult, twice is nigh on impossible but I would suggest a ‘win’ bet only as they will without doubt go easy on him if his winning chance has gone.
The horse I have taken a chance on EW was beaten LTO by a nice one of Jonjo’s but is 7lb better off for 6 lengths and is double the price. The trainer likes to win these big Northern races and at 25s I believe MOIDORE has an excellent chance given a good draw
.The floor is open for selections but please back them up with a little reasoning.
The Pitmens Derby is one of the few prestigious Handicaps left in the country where you see the full 2 stone weight difference between top weight and bottom weight and results have shown that a decent sort can carry weight around Newcastle,I believe
Biographer
fits the bill this year,he has more class than both ‘Tiger Cliff’ and ‘Well sharp’ (2 of the Ante-Post favs) put together. David Lanigans charge handles any ground too and that is critical for the Ante-Post punter,the biggest concern is the draw as it seems those drawn high are always chasing the race,this fellow wont mind that so its not the end of the world if he is out in the Car Park as Newcastle has a long straight for him to wind it up on.Obviously he’s only one of 86 decs at the moment but his profile suggests to me at least, missing last weeks Gold cup could be a blessing,he has no other immediate entries so I’ll take a chance that he’s being aimed for this weeks race and have taken the 14/1 on offer with Bet365.If he does turn up I reckon this years race could see a cutting off point above the 90 rated horses somewhere around the 94/95 mark such is the quality of the field, so the framing of the weights wont see my selection having to give the 2 stones of lead away like in the days of
Celeric
and
Bold Gait
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Well Sharp and De Rigueur are out of the race now so that clears the picture a little. I was on Biographer first time up this year and was pleased with the way he stayed on under a big weight into 4th behind Tiger Cliff, he might well have been second in a few more strides. The form of that race looks really solid with a couple of next time winners in the first six places and the first, third and jt fourth all ran well in big fields at Royal Ascot. Biographer was conceding 13lb to Tiger Cliff that day and was beaten a length and a half running on well. This time up he will be 4lbs better off with the favourite yet he is a three times the odds at 12/1 and I think he’s a great each-way bet. The only doubt I have is whether the stable is in top form, with Main Sequence a big disappointment again as evs fav behind Brown Panther on Sunday.
Biographer each-way 12/1 will do for me though.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The only doubt I have is whether the stable is in top form, with Main Sequence a big disappointment again as evs fav behind Brown Panther
A dirty Scope was to blame for the Tail Swishing dodgepot Derby placed ‘Main Sequence’s demise at Ponty.I just hope the infections not contagious,as the temperament of the 2 stable stars is like chalk and cheese.
MUBARAZA and BROCKWELL against the field. The former makes sense to me at the prices given his proximity to Tiger Cliff in two recent runs and he’s triple the price. 2 miles at Newcastle looks ideal.
Brockwell looks a decent each way bet although possibly without the class to win it.Thought Queally rode a poor race on Tiger Cliff at Ascot and if given a wide draw here could scupper his chances.
Tiger Cliff reported unlikely to run as ground may be on fast side. With that in mind I’d be a bit concerned for Moidore as most of his best form seems on the softer side. Arch Villain’s two wins haven’t been working out thus far and I’d be more worried about Montaser although he seems short enough now.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Homeric is out of the race as well now. I see Tiger Cliff is still favourite at as low as 4/1, what a nailing good bet that is for a horse highly likely to miss the race
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Biographer is out as well!! Bollocks in a hat.
They are dropping like flies here, at this rate it will be a match race!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Biographer is out as well!! Bollocks in a hat.
They are dropping like flies here, at this rate it will be a match race!
Just got in from Golfing to find
Biographers
another one out due to the ground………
Do you lot at Newcastle want a bloody race?
Firm ground Ffs!! Christ if its not P*ssed it down all bloody year and now we get Firm ground withdrawels!!Get the bloody course watered.I tell ya Clerk of the courses are as much use as Chocolate Teapots.You can understand that their hands are tied when its raining and the ground is getting softer but christ when it gets hot what is the logical thing to do er……………
I am not a least bit concerned about the ground for Moidore Steve – unlike the southern trainers I live up here and strongly believe the race will be run on good or worse ground! The showers have turned to rain and the sun has disappeared
There will be a few trainers and punters a bit miffed if the ground does ease. I’m not sure I’ll have a bet on it now. Good luck with your guy.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Is anyone else expecting Lieutenant Miller to run well? Good draw and 3rd behind Tiger Cliff at ascot.
I wasn’t going to have another bet until October but I’m strongly tempted to change that as I really like the look of Tominator in this.
Won the race previously, ran a cracking race at Chester and Jonjo will have a good line to a number of these through Well Sharp.
Drawn in 4 and gotta love the jockey booking too.
8/1 will do me and I’d be surprised to see him out of the frame.
Lee
How many southern trainers are kicking themselves now with good to soft ground as stated weeks ago
How many southern trainers are kicking themselves now with good to soft ground as stated weeks ago
Disgraceful bit of PR all round Gary,Anyone who’s lived in the North East knows it could be sunny one minute and a bloody sea haar the next.Those trainers who pulled their horses earlier this week stating the ground as an issue definitely over-reacted.I looked at the long range forecast as I have been building a Conservatory and it clearly stated heavy rain all day for Friday (Yesterday),the met were correct and the Clerk at Newcastle panicked.On this occasion
its 6 of one and half a dozen of the other so they are all to blame for creting a farce of a historical handicap!There were 17 horses rated over a 100 down to run and now there’s 2 left! Poor renewal!
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