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Yes, TNO has always had that turn of foot and used it to good effect.
There are so many other things to consider. TNO’s very best form is at 2 miles. I would have doubts about backing him to reproduce it these days at 2m4f. Arguably his turn of foot is at its best at the shorter distance, where stamina is not so prevelent and speed a stronger weapon.
You say he’s got beaten when odds against, isn’t that to be expected?
The Champion Hurdle third (when taking in to account being hampered) was a better performance than most of the odds-on successes.
But I very much agree with your assessment of value. 3/1 is poor, can see him going off quite a bit bigger on the day.
If you flip the equation around it also equates that he should win, win well and look impressive when he’s heavily odds on. That doesn’t stop people from gushing like an elephant in the lavvy after a tanker of Tizer though
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Bertimont handicap mark unchanged, which is eminently sensible. Less fortunate is Swaledale Lad, who is penalised 5lbs (125 up to 130) for his temerity in bothering to take on TNO.
So much for the oft repeated Phil Smith claim that horses are never unfairly punished for running against the stars of the NH game.
Actually phil could have done much worse. Not only a problem over there. In ireland we got a 3 horse novice chase the other day that Vautour won, all for the same reason.
Back to the TNO, surely his form line puts him firmly on a par with Rock on Ruby, which i assume is on its way to the world hurdle??
SHL
Seems fair enough, I was hoping he’d put Bertimont up a few pounds and he’d be a handicap good thing for the Schweppes, now he’s got nothing in hand of the handicapper in the race.
Ginger, I never used the word disappointing. He’s a fine horse, and you’d go a long way to find one more consistent. I just don’t think he battles. Some do, some don’t. MTOY doesn’t, imo, and TNO doesn’t.
You cite stamina as MTOY’s problem too, as opposed to not battling. Is it really logical that a horse – any horse – fails for stamina only in the final few yards of a race? Horses who ‘barely’ stay the festival trip do not lose twice by under a length for lack of stamina. Loss of energy through running keenly shouldn’t be confused with lack of stamina.
Back to TNO: Because a horse shows a high quality of form at any age or any level, it doesn’t excuse him the badge of ‘non-battler’. You might think he was outstayed, I think stamina is probably his forte. Steve, who shares a number of my opinions about the horse, thinks he’s a proper two-miler.
We all make our decisions based on our interpretation. I might very well be wrong, but it won’t be for lack of knowledge (as in ‘I thought you’d know that, Joe’). It will be because of poor interpretation on my part. And I’ve never cited high head carriage with TNO. Plenty horses without a high head carriage will not stick their necks out in a finsh. From what I can see, TNO’s head carriage is chalk V cheese compared with Cue Card
Ginger, I never used the word disappointing. He’s a fine horse, and you’d go a long way to find one more consistent. I just don’t think he battles. Some do, some don’t. MTOY doesn’t, imo, and TNO doesn’t.
You cite stamina as MTOY’s problem too, as opposed to not battling. Is it really logical that a horse – any horse – fails for stamina only in the final few yards of a race? Horses who ‘barely’ stay the festival trip do not lose twice by under a length for lack of stamina. Loss of energy through running keenly shouldn’t be confused with lack of stamina.
Stamina has almost as much to do with temperament as it does breeding Joe. If a horse does not settle it does not last as far (has less stamina) as it does when settling. If a horse is lazy it will stay further (has more stamina) than it does when enthusiastic. MOTY never settles well these days and barely stays a well run 2 miles, especially on a stiff track. If a horse -any horse – fails to get home because of "loss of energy through running keenly" then its "loss of energy through running keenly" has led to its stamina giving out. Put it another way, if hurdles races were over 1m4f, do you think MTOY would finish his races better?
Yes, the clue is in the word "barely". If a horse definately doesn’t stay, it will show it two out. If it barely stays it will show it nearer the finish. It is evident from watching his races that when MTOY has a slower pace or (lesser stamina test) he has no trouble getting home. Therefore, the "no battler" sign can not imo be used and another reason is sought.
Value Is EverythingThere are some good judges on here but by christ those that dont think
The New One
granted a clear run of the race wont win this years Champion hurdle really are in for a surprise.I would suggest there isn’t a horse in training that has been targeted for one race only this year more than Nigel Twiston-Davies fellow.The more I watch last years Champion the more I think.’Certainty beat’..And thats from someone who’s backed
Get me out of Here
for the past 4 years.
Gord, my @ss is already committed on your two Gold Cup hopes, but I’ll stretch it and add TNO, to give you some extra interest.
TNO might well win the Champion Hurdle but I just don’t see how anyone could be confident of him doing so.
Back to TNO: Because a horse shows a high quality of form at any age or any level, it doesn’t excuse him the badge of ‘non-battler’.
You might think he was outstayed, I think stamina is probably his forte. Steve, who shares a number of my opinions about the horse, thinks he’s a proper two-miler.
We all make our decisions based on our interpretation. I might very well be wrong, but it won’t be for lack of knowledge (as in ‘I thought you’d know that, Joe’). It will be because of poor interpretation on my part. And I’ve never cited high head carriage with TNO. Plenty horses without a high head carriage will not stick their necks out in a finsh. From what I can see, TNO’s head carriage is chalk V cheese compared with Cue Card
Of course "Because a horse shows a high quality of form at any age or any level, it doesn’t excuse him the badge of ‘non-battler’". Just as because a horse loses three close finishes does not make him one either. But if you’re calling The New One "Non-battler", then at least 80% of racehorses are "no battlers". He is nowhere near getting a Timeform squiggle.
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I am sorry you thought I was calling your knowledge in to question Joe (I know you have great knowledge). My words merely gave a gentle ribbing, because I know how you admired Cue Card, as (I thought) my smilie at the end of the sentence made plain.But you did say about TNO "didn’t put his head down" in a finish, so yes, you did mention head carriage.
Am surprised you dismiss the breeding, Kings Theatre/Saddlers Wells line so easily. Of course The New One’s head carriage in a finish is nothing like Cue Card’s, it doesn’t have to be. But it may still explain why The New One may appear not to "put his head down" in a finish in the way you might expect from other horses.
But as you say, racing is all about "interpretation".
Value Is EverythingFair enough, Ginger.
80% of horses probably are non-battlers, but battling is one of the attributes that sets aside top-class horses. At a guess, I’d say the ratio is close to the other way round with top-notchers.
And those who don’t battle are certainly not all squiggle candidates. I see it as an attribute in those who have it rather than a failing in those who don’t. As with humans, some horses simply just want it more, imo.
One downside to being a battler, a never-say-die type, is that their careers might not last as long as if they were ‘normal’ horses. That desire to give all or go down trying must take its toll.
As to breeding, I pay very little attention to it, preferring to work out a horse for myself rather than be influenced by preconceptions. Doubtless, some genes carry flaws as well as brilliance, and there is of course a strong argument for forecasting stamina – but even that is far from a perfect science (Red Rum, anyone?)
I don’t bet anywhere near as often as you do, and I don’t study at the level you do. My preference is to seek out certain horses where value can be had – for or against – because my interpretation of their ability/potential goes against the majority.
TNO is a case in point: you’ll find a thread on here where I said I thought he’d go right to the top. I had a (for me) substantial bet on him at 25s for the Champion Hurdle on the day before he won the Neptune. And everyone here knows how attached I am to Cue Card. But as you see a horse developing, you always need to take an objective view from a betting angle (imo) and be ready to act on your interpretation.
Both horses mentioned have gone awry, I think, CC much more so, and I believe there is a physical element to it with the two of them.
But, as Gord says, we will soon find out about TNO, and the rights and wrongs of the opinions on here.
But as you say, racing is all about "interpretation".
It is indeed Ginge and its incredible how we imterpret things differently even when things are Crystal clear,like
The New One
winning this years Champion hurdle.The horse isn’t 3/1 for nothing and thats because the Bookmakers like myself are adamant he’s been trained for one race only.
Joe you are a glutton for punishment! I do wish you’d keep the faith with Your horseCue Card
for the Ryanair,he reminds me a bit of ‘Albertas Run’ a horse who couldn’t find his niche until he ran in the Ryanair.
TNO is a case in point: you’ll find a thread on here where I said I thought he’d go right to the top. I had a (for me) substantial bet on him at 25s for the Champion Hurdle on the day before he won the Neptune. And everyone here knows how attached I am to Cue Card.
But, as Gord says, we will soon find out about TNO, and the rights and wrongs of the opinions on here.
Yes I recall that thread too Joe and I’m sure I’m quoted on it saying ‘TNO’ would never beat ‘MTOY’..And thats the very reason I’m big on his chances this year as there is No ‘MTOY’ a horse I evaluated better than anyone when he was just a Bumper horse.Time has shown that collateral form through ‘MTOY’ alone puts ‘TNO’ right up there and granted a clear run last year he’d have been within a neck of the 1st and 2nd home in the Champion hurdle…A neck in front!
Fair enough, Ginger.
80% of horses probably are non-battlers, but battling is one of the attributes that sets aside top-class horses. At a guess, I’d say the ratio is close to the other way round with top-notchers.
And those who don’t battle are certainly not all squiggle candidates.
I see it as an attribute in those who have it rather than a failing in those who don’t.
As with humans, some horses simply just want it more, imo.
One downside to being a battler, a never-say-die type, is that their careers might not last as long as if they were ‘normal’ horses. That desire to give all or go down trying must take its toll.
If I’ve got you right this time? I think we have a difference in definition here Joe.
Your definition is: Either a horse is a "battler" or a "non-battler".
Mine is similar to a "genuine" on the one hand or "squiggle" Timeform badge on the other (although I’d have more squigglers than Timeform)…
ie To my way of thinking: The most genuine horses (
around 10%
) are called
"battlers"
and around
20%
are ungenuine (either squiggle horses or almost squiggle horses) and called
"non-battlers"
. With around
70%
of the horse population somewhere
in between
the two. I’d put The New One towards the top of the middle group and My Tent Or yours slightly below mid-table of the same middle group. They both may well fall in to
your "non-battler"
category just because they are
not
in the
"battler"
camp.
Value Is EverythingBut as you say, racing is all about "interpretation".
It is indeed Ginge and its incredible how we imterpret things differently even when things are Crystal clear,like
The New One
winning this years Champion hurdle.The horse isn’t 3/1 for nothing and thats because the Bookmakers like myself are adamant he’s been trained for one race only.
At current prices:
Faugheen is Evens, so takes out 50% of the book.
The New One is 3/1 so takes out 25% of the book.
Meaning, if those two prices are fair, then the rest have a combined 25% chance.If you believe TNO is value @ 3/1 Gord and I do not believe it value…
In a betting without Faugheen market:
You have The New One running for you.
I have The Field running for me.
We shall see who wins.
Value Is EverythingThe New One will place, as will Jezki, it’s just a question of where Faugheen places…..1st, 2nd or 3rd…..there really isn’t any reason to look beyond any other result than these three horses filling the first three places. Nothing can come out of the woodwork to alter the simple outcome of this race. Can’t call the winner, but I’m "really putting my neck out" and saying this is the combo tricast! Can anyone else see anything else having a say?
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