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Already done that earlier in the thread, Drone; at least compared to the RSA. Haven’t looked at the novice handicap, but that’s over 2 1/2.
Since the change to improve the quality of the NH Chase in 2002, there’s been 67 who’ve either fallen or unseated of 345 runners, 19.42%.
In the same timespan there’s been 28 fallen or unseated in the RSA of the 211 runners. 13.27%.Arkle in the same time period, 21 fallers/unseated of 202 runners 10.4%. But didn’t think that was relevent considering the distance.
NB Those figures include unseats, not just fallers.
Value Is EverythingOr make it a race for established chasers (not novices)? I’d be in favour of using horses with most experience – a Veterans amateur 4m chase.
That would make a lot of sense and create something like a new championship race for the older ones.
Or a combination of the above? imo Best to make it a Veterans 4m Handicap open to pro’ jockeys. Maybe having a bonus for any winner going on to Grand National victory?
That would destroy some of the established GN trials and they’d probably get less time to recover from a tough 4 mile contest with the GN just three and a half weeks away.
But, with the right alterations/improvements the NH Chase has the chance to become a high quality race again.
Just Your Type had four previous starts: finishing 4th, 5th, falling (when in command) and 6th again.
Mulches Hill three previous starts: 6th, 2nd (Bangor), 4th.
Those two horses were given awful rides in the NH Chase. If any horse continues in their condition at Cheltenham, Ex-Ruby: they’re unlikely to get over the fence. Jockeys should be ashamed.
Value Is EverythingI do think if making it an Amateur Veterans 4m race, it’ll need to be a handicap – otherwise will be uncompetitive.
Value Is EverythingSince soft cores and loose spruce at Aintree the fact is that Cheltenham (and some other courses) actually have fences that are a stiffer jumping test. Needs to be born in mind when comparing.
We were all watching the GN at a young age and got into racing because of it. If your mind and the minds of society in general had changed before the recent alterations then why at that time was the race the most viewed in the world? It suggests that enough people were fine with it as was that the number of those abandoning watching it was of no detriment to the sport.
GOLDENMILLER34 Timeform have called the recent changed nationals the “plastic Nationals” and suggests that tv viewers are slowly realising that it isn’t the race it was.
ITV are doing very well with their viewing figures across the board except for National Day when they expected to get at least 12m but haven’t got within 1.5m of Minority channel 4.One aspect of this year’s NH Chase that hasn’t been addressed in greater depth is the pace of the race from the get-go. The amateurs went too strong a pace from the start, wasn’t that agreed?
OK, how about (and bear with me here) that any horse that completes the first two miles too quickly is instantly disqualified and pulled up? Is it beyond the wit of the authorities to establish what time the first 2m of the race should be completed in, and if any of the competitors is going faster than that, then to penalise them? Then there would not be such a hot early pace to the race with jockeys knowing they will be penalised for it?
Afterall, how many horses that lead a 4m+ race after 2m actually go on to win it?
I am probably talking utter drivel, but thought it might be worth putting out there.
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If you consider restricting the race to amateurs then please consider that Patrick Mullins got a hefty 6 day whip ban last year, Nina Carberry got 7 days back in 2013 when 2nd on Tofino Bay, Kate Walsh got 4 days back in 2010 (on Poker De Sivola) when beating Nina on Becauseicouldntsee who got 5 days for her misuse of the whip. And these are just a few examples.
And there is this quote from Racing TV: Rathvinden had to be dismounted after the line and was doused with water by the veterinary team.
I know, nothing happened to him and he won the Bobbyjo four weeks ago, but do we really need this at an otherwise whip ban free Festival?
Quelle Farce, while looking back at the past 15 winners or so, none of them won the race from the front. I’d say roughly 70% were held up in midfield or even further back. Patience seems to matter most.
Is it beyond the wit of the authorities to establish what time the first 2m of the race should be completed in, and if any of the competitors is going faster than that, then to penalise them?
Overall time can be slow, but doesn’t mean at some point in the race it’ll be too fast and the horses finishing tired.
Even when the pace is not strong, doesn’t mean the pace will be right come the end. If going a “slow” pace (what would be associated with an even pace if going 5 miles)… and then after the first four fences it increases to a “fast” (what would be associated with an even 3 mile pace)… The time of the first 2 miles will be slow, but they’ll still be extremely tired come the finish…
On the other hand; if a horse goes what would be too fast an innitial pace and then the jockey is able to slow it down – the horse has a good chance of finishing well.
Also, with a horse that has bags of stamina up against a favourite with suspect stamina – the jockey on the former may deliberately go faster, because it brings stamina more in to play – ruins the favourite’s chance (Coneygree-like).
Nice idea, but can’t really see any way of disqualifying one that’s gone too fast, QF. Got to allow jockeys their own way.
Value Is Everythingwhile looking back at the past 15 winners or so, none of them won the race from the front. I’d say roughly 70% were held up in midfield or even further back. Patience seems to matter most.
When a front/prominent runner is beaten by a hold up horse it’s not always fair to think prominently ridden horses were disadvantaged. People tend to think of the prominent runners as just the front two or three… and yet how many are they up against? Three against 14+ rivals; how many races are they expected to win?
In 2018 second and third Ms Parfois and Sizing Tennesse were the two horses leading/up with the pace from the start. Only beaten by one hold up horse Rathvinden – and he had to break the rules to do so. Therefore, those 2 horses beat 13 of their 14 rivals home.
In 2017 only the great Tiger Roll was too strong for 50/1 shot Missed Approach who was up there from the start – beating 16 of his 17 rivals. Would you have expected Missed Approach to beat Tiger Roll?
I don’t think Ms Parfois, Sizing Tennesse or Missed Approach were at all disadvantaged; although had they been prominent in this season’s race would have been (going too fast a pace). But there’s been several over the years given too much to do in slowly run races (disadvantaged being held up).
Value Is EverythingI’ll answer the quote below (about what Honeyball said) in this thread rather than Grand National (Big Race Section) as the topic holds no right to be in that thread.
Ginger, what Honeyball said was:
“It’s a good opportunity for some horses, especially a horse like Ms Parfois”
and:
“What novice chaser really needs to go four miles at that stage of their life?”
Therefore, my comment:
“Serves Honeyball right for running her in the NH Chase one year then criticising the judgement of his fellow trainers for running horses in it the next. Hypocrite. Karma!”
is an accurate representation (or I’m a Warthog!)
And, thus, it is telling me what I think to say I know my comment is a “total misrepresentation”.If a trainer has a horse who’s suited by a test of stamina, then the NH Chase is a “A good opportunity for some horses, especially a horse like Ms Parfois”. Just as if other trainers with similar horses it is a good opportunity. It is not a criticism of trainers running their horses in the race, just (and it is a fact) that stayers stay further as they get older. ie “What novice chaser really needs to go four miles at that stage of their life?” 3m4f is still be a thorough stamina test of stamina for novice chasers.
If the race exists in its present form then any trainer is justified in running a horse who will be suited by the conditions. Point is that having a race with its conditions places a far greater risk of horse deaths; as he said: “In your wildest dreams you would never develop that race. Four miles, amateur riders and novice chasers – I can’t see that as a very clever combination. I don’t know how you ever end up with a race like that.” You could not get a race more likely to have injury and death than one with the conditions of the NH Chase. As I previously said:
Honestly answer my questions yourself (as I’ve done and you’ll see what I mean:
Are amateurs or professionals generally more likely to make errors of judgement?
Amateurs are generally far less experienced and therefore can be expected to make more errors of judgement.Do you believe a 4 mile race is generally more difficult for an amateur to judge pace than it is for proffesional jockeys?
Amateurs will generally find it more difficult to judge pace and at 4m the affects of judging pace wrongly is magnified.Or to put it another way..
Do you believe a 4 mile race is generally more likely to end up with extremely tired horses under amateurs or professionals?
When jockeys go too fast for the soft conditions in a 4 mile race then horses will finish extremely tired… and amateurs are generally more likely to make errors of judgement regarding pace than pro’s.Do you believe novice chasers are generally as good as established chasers at jumping fences?
Novice (inexperienced) Chasers are generally much more likely to make more mistakes than established chasers.Do you believe amateurs are generally as good as professionals at getting novice chasers to jump?
Amateurs are generally not as good as pro’s at putting horses in the right position to jump and also more likely to cause interference at those fences. Both of which can lead to falls/injury or death. In last week’s race we were lucky there was only one fatality.Do you believe amateurs or professionals are generally the most likely to make errors of judgement in a Championship/big race? Amateurs are generally more likely to make errors of judgement when the pressure is on.
Would anyone come up with a new race with these qualifications?
Is it really wise to have all of those things in one race? an amateur 4m novice chase at the Cheltenham Festival? LOOK at all the above questions/answers. You could not devise a race more likely to produce errors of judgement than an amateur race – run over 4m – over fences – for novices – at one of the biggest days of the season.The current NH Chase has conditions that are asking for trouble.
Value Is EverythingVery much with GT on this one. Horses are less likely to die when ridden by a professional jockey. It’s a fact, not a matter of opinion. I saw some statistics a few years ago which, even as somebody who has abhorred the malign influence of amateurism in many British sports (not just horse racing) for decades, truly surprised and shocked me. It seems the exercise was never repeated and I can’t find the original now, so I have done a quick check of the 23 horses I know to have been killed on British racecourses (so far) this month. 6 were ridden by amateurs and 8 by conditional jockeys, despite professionals forming by far the greatest number of riders over that period.
With regards to the point being made about amateurs versus professionals made by GT, particularly with regards to this years race. The majority of the amateur jockeys that rode in the race, JJ Codd, P Mullins, D O’ Connor, D Lavery, N McParlan, Miss L O’Neil, B O’Neill, W Biddick, J Barry, F Maguire, S Waley Cohen, and R Deegan have plenty enough experience in rules racing (circa 300+ rides over 5 years) and more than enough experience in the PTP field. Derek O’connor has ridden more than 1000 PTP winners. With regards to making horses jump I would have several of the above mentioned in preference to a many a “professional”, after all PTP riders are entrusted with plenty of good prospects before a professional gets anywhere near them. And isn’t it slighty ironic that an amatuer Sam Waley Cohen has an enviable record over the Aintree fences that the majority of “professionals” would be proud of? I know that is cherry picking but IMO at least two thirds of the jockeys who rode in this years race are more than capable and at least a third have the talent equal to that of many professionals
It seems the exercise was never repeated and I can’t find the original now, so I have done a quick check of the 23 horses I know to have been killed on British racecourses (so far) this month. 6 were ridden by amateurs and 8 by conditional jockeys, despite professionals forming by far the greatest number of riders over that period.
Now thanks for the stat, Tonge. Isn’t it ironic that we don’t mind the 23 deaths that occurred in March, but we like to change a race which will take place in 50 weeks time?
23 deaths and no Flat Racing on turf, no evening Racing, the NH stables in the best possible form, very suitable ground. Shouldn’t we talk about this first?
I know that is cherry picking but IMO at least two thirds of the jockeys who rode in this years race are more than capable and at least a third have the talent equal to that of many professionals.
I’d disagree with some of the jockeys you quote, Aaron. You are right that some are just as good as pro’s. I’d suggest some may look good when winning, but making more mistakes when putting a horse at a fence. However, let’s put that aside – as you say – two thirds of the jockeys who rode in this years race are more than capable, what about the other third? There are not enough good jockeys to go around and that makes the race a little more dangerous…
But on its own an amateur race is not the problem. Any of the factors on their own is not the problem. It’s having so many things that add up in to a too dangerous race. 4 mile race is harder to judge pace/more likely to be overly strongly run and therefore having a greater risk of tired horses making mistakes. Novices make more mistakes/need more jockeyship going in to a fence. So added to amateurs just makes the race too dangerous.
Value Is EverythingChanges to the conditions of the race from 2020
http://www.irishracing.com/news?headline=Changes-Announced-For-Cheltenham-Festival&prid=202035
Whether this will work who knows but hopefully it will help and there will be another review in 3 years to see if they are working.
The stricter qualifying criteria for runners and riders would have been sufficient before a review in 3 years, no need to shorten the race distance. More ground unnecessarily given to those that would ban NH racing by the gutless BHA.
A Mares Chase to be introduced in 2021. Fine, it should replace the Bumper. Bumpers are designed to allow NH bred horses to acclimatise to the racecourse experience, there is no need to hold a Championship event. And if there was there is no need to hold one at the Festival.
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