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Very Wise and Blythe Knight were both winners at 10f earlier in their career. The years before that pair, the race has gone to unexposed 4yo’s in the shape of Stream of Gold, Babodana and Pablo. The latter is the angle I’d be playing but the market does seem all over that at present.
Prince Forever should fit the bill nicely, DJ.
Thought good enough by his trainer to contest the gp2 Champagne Stakes on only his second start, where he ruined his chance by pulling too hard.
One appearance last season where he was again too keen, but still managed to run Tariq to less than 2l, on the wrong ground and over a trip probably short of his best. Even that form may be good enough, without the likely improvement for both the extra furlong and softer ground.
As long as he settles, I wouldn’t look beyond him, and the market speaks well in his favour of doing so.
Imo, the winner invariably comes from where the pace is, which is far more important than the draw, (Despite what some may tell us to the contrary
).Re: trainer g lyons
thanks for pointing out. i hadn’t heard of him before, so only really noticed what he’d sent over.
Declarations/the cut:
I understand that there will be no more than 22 runners. The racing post "cards" sections has more than 22 runners with jockies booked above zaahid and even more above lang shining.
Reading now in RP that some horses wont make the cut and then some horses will be withdrwan possibly because of state of ground.
Given that its Good Friday tomorrow – does anyone know when this speculation will end and when the draw will take place for stall positions
thanks for that info, will we know then which runners are definitely IN and OUT of the 22?
so – the favourite zaahid and lang shining don’t run. this so seemed to be the case, so why all the speculation and implications particularly that zaahid would run. i assume a fair amount of money lost on it
yes, but zaahid and lang shining still needed a fair few to come out. i just can’t get my head round the money going on zaahid in the past 24/48 hours
Am I the only one on here who gives the Lincoln a huge body swerve – i.e. from a punting point of view.
It’s too much a puzzle and a lottery to me – but then, most big handicaps are.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
so why all the speculation and implications particularly that zaahid would run. i assume a fair amount of money lost on it
You don’t lose your money on Zaahid ante post assuming he was declared. If a horse is ballotted out, ante post stakes are refunded.
Hi Reet
Prince Forever does look like a horse with plenty of ability but I’d be worried about his stamina on testing ground at 1m. He’s pulled hard on all 3 of his runs and I’d need to see evidence that he can settle before I could back him. I agree his mark looks more than fair though.
The one I like is Smokey Oakey. He shaped well on numerous times last year and finally came good at Ayr on his final start. He’s a strong traveller that should be suited by them going a decent gallop and all his very best form has come with cut in the ground. Tompkins has shown he can get a similar type ready early in the shape of Babodana and I’d be hopeful of a good run at around 11/1.
The Lincoln- One of the most dull and dreary races known to mankind. Just stick a pin in the paper if you really need to bet in this droll race. Hopefully the country will have a powercut to save the public from listening to dreary presenters banging on and on about a draw before the dreariest of dreary races.
carvills
find that quite hard to believe. i’m using betfair and would you believe everything that is running is now shorter odds. Unsure of point you’re trying to make?????
carvills
find that quite hard to believe. i’m using betfair and would you believe everything that is running is now shorter odds. Unsure of point you’re trying to make?????
Batt,
Carvillshill is merely pointing out Ante Post rules; all stakes are refunded on horses which are ballotted out. That is an absolute rule.
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The going for the Lincoln is unlikely to be any worse than g/s.
http://www.racingpost.co.uk/news/news.sd?psection=racingpost.co.uk&page=News&category=Top%20Stories&story_uid=964779Imo, the winner invariably comes from where the pace is, which is far more important than the draw
I think one of the problems with draw analysis is that it is often done on a shallow basis, by totting up the number of winners from a particular stall and calling it a bias. Any draw ‘bias’ should have a basis in reality, such as a watering system that doesn’t cover the whole track, configuration of course (eg Beverley/Chester), use of a fresh strip of ground etc. Finding out where the pace is likely to be is hugely important of course, though you can’t do that until the draw has been made.
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