- This topic has 64 replies, 31 voices, and was last updated 18 years, 2 months ago by
.
- Posts
ok rory, thanks.
but this ballotting out thing is slightly confusing when it comes to betfair. i’ve had plenty of bets in the ante post market and if it didn’t run, i lost
so anyone who had a bet on zaahid on betfair in the last 365 days is getting their money back? – don’t believe it!
is the lincoln some sort of special race????
Marb,
Dettori was slightly slowly away from a rails draw and had to push along briefly which caused Yeamans Hall to get lit up somewhat but he managed to take up a good enough position turning in at Sandown. He could easily have suffered traffic problems but was in fact lucky enough to find room near the rail to launch a challenge, looking slightly awkward under pressure (actually hampered Montpellier who was going for a gap right on the rail), but was beaten when eased inside the last. Not a pretty ride by Frankie, but not one which cost victory by any manner.
He’s a big horse, and I wouldn’t expect him to be as well suited by racing in big field round a bend as I would careering down a straight track, so there’s every hope for him on Saturday.
well in terms of betting and money, there is no doubt that RIO RIVA is the one attracting support. i think it has a cracking chance to be placed but can it actually win this year????
marb, i think you’ve said it all. a lightly raced horse who didn.t run well in a big field which he faces again on saturday. yes it will be easier over a straight mile, but i still have to have concerns and can’t bet at 8/1
ok rory, thanks.
but this ballotting out thing is slightly confusing when it comes to betfair. i’ve had plenty of bets in the ante post market and if it didn’t run, i lost
so anyone who had a bet on zaahid on betfair in the last 365 days is getting their money back? – don’t believe it!
is the lincoln some sort of special race????
Once again Batt.
Ante Post rules are "all in, run or not" meaning that if you back a horse who is withdrawn at any stage you lose your bet. However should your selection miss the cut for the race at the declaration stage (ie be ballotted out) then your stakes are refunded. This is always the case for bets struck on ante post races without exception, either by race or by bookmaker, including Betfair..
Disappointed that Zaahid & Lang Shining didn’t make it into the race. Imo the story is not who didn’t get in, but who did. How come Classic Port gets to run in the race?
I may be horribly wrong about this, but I can’t have the favourite Prince Forever. Granted he’s very unexposed…. but imo he hasn’t run that fast yet, he doesn’t seem to settle that well, he’s unproven at the trip, and I think the handicapper has taken his one decent piece of form with Tariq very literally. If he wins off 106, it will be a great bit of training by M.Jarvis. In saying all of that thought, I wouldn’t back him, but I’d be scared of laying him, just in case!
i’ve had my main bets on vitznau (14/1), little white lie (12/1) and a small saver on rio riva (20/1), but am now trying to pick out some more value.
i’m coming up with Fremen trading at 27 on betfair and 6.2 a place.
he won really well on good to soft at ayr over a mile, putting up his best speed figure of 96. i think at the weights this is the best speed figure of any horse in the race.
he was then 7th in the cambridgeshire by about 4 lengths and the RP points out that it was making late headway, only to be caught out by the stiff final furlong at newmarket.
he then ran on dirt in dubai, followed by a couple of respectable runs on turf.
He is clearly fit and is drawn in stall 1. when we don’t really know about the draw (probably the argument is just in favour of low on softish ground), i remain interested in horses drawn at extremes i.e. 1, 2, 21, 22.
Hello,
The Spring Mile, before the Lincoln, may give us some indication of the draw bias. It certainly was a good gauge before the new drainage systems, but now it’s reliability maybe questionable. Anyway, if one side finish over 5 lengths ahead of the other it will have to be built into the equation.
LITTLE WHITE LIES, has all the hallmarks of a typical Betting Coup to me. Everything "appears" right about it, and 11/1 today IS a good E/W price.
I am puzzled about the entry of the multi tasker, EUROPEAN DREAM, is there anything this horse cannot do??
It has been a hurdler of some distinction this year, popped over to Dubai for a couple of races’ and now appears in the Lincoln!!!
It has what is considered a bad draw, but heh, it can run on in 2m hurdle so it could easily grab a place past slowing horses [he said optimisticly!!]
Get on him the for Grand National, 2009, Wimbledon 2009 and this years Formula One..
regards,
doyley
For what it’s worth (probably not a great deal) this is my take on the draw in the Lincoln.
Since the stalls on the straight course usually go stands side (high) that section of the track gets more churned up than the far side (low) and so is slower ground. The meeting is usually held over three days with the Lincoln on the third, so by the time we get to this race, the stands side strip of ground and most of the centre has had three days worth of racing on it whereas the far side has had much less racing on it. This effect is increased if the going is soft to start with. Since this year there haven’t been two days racing preceding the Lincoln, this effect will be considerably lessened and so where the pace will be is more important than where you are drawn.
But this is only the result of brief research and simple logic – I don’t know for example if they usually keep a stretch of ground fresh for the Lincoln.
a bow wow told me "Very Wise" is the one to be on. I told him he would have to be "very stupid" to bet it.I can’t get my head round these cavalry charges pick the wrong side and your beat before you start.
My favourite betting race of the whole year and traditionally the one I find easiest to unravel based on an old Nick Mordin ‘pace’ theory from years back.
2006 (held at Redcar) posted
1. Kamanda Laugh (25th)
2. Zero Tolerance (finished 4th @14/1)
3. Royal Island (finished 2nd @25/1)
4. Common World (17th)2007 (held at Newcastle) posted
1. Granston (12th)
2. Raptor (finished 3rd @ 25/1)
3. Mutawaffer (finished 2nd @10/1)
4. Zero Tolerance (13th)These can be proofed via the Internet. PM me if you wish.
Not sure about 2005, but I know from memory that I had the winner Babodana at 20/1 as one of the four selections back in 2004 and would have had the trifecta up in Aunt Ritas race had it not been for filling in the draw number instead of the horse number on the trifecta card.
It would be nice this year to again have the winner and the second( instead of the second and 3rd ) Or even better, maybe the first three.
[b:3qqqpegm]Mordins pace theory went something like this [/b:3qqqpegm]:-
1. Ignore any draw bias. It’s not a strong bias at Doncaster and neither is it a strong bias over 1m at any track.
2. Concentrate on the ‘up with the pace horses’ These are those who like to be up with the pace, but don’t actually like to lead. The RP comments will describe their runs as prominent, close up, in touch, chased leaders etc
3. Concentrate on ‘up with the pace horses’ who are drawn close to ‘lead horses’. Lead horses will be described as led, early leader, soon led etc
4. Only include ‘lead horses’ on a final shortlist if they are proven to get the distance.
5. Discount the ‘speed’ horses who have previously tried the 1m distance but failed. There are too many proven milers in the race for a sprinter to finish in front of them all.
6. Discount ‘hold up horses’. These would be described as midfield, behind, always in rear, held up, steadied etc The theory being that lots of speed horses / sprinters have a crack at this and end up making it difficult for the hold up horses to get a clear path through as their stamina runs out and they fade away.
7. As a final eliminator chose the ‘up with pace horse’ who has proven form at quickening in the final furlong over 1m and who is drawn close to a lead horseThis year I have worked it out to be as follows
[b:3qqqpegm]The Low numbers [/color:3qqqpegm][/b:3qqqpegm]
There are three close up horses Blythe Knight, AnneMasse and Little White Lie. Little White Lie may opt to join the pace in the middle and stay up with Prince Forever. If so he has a good chance if his stamina holds out. Annemasse and Blythe Knight should decide to stick to their side. Blythe Knight is a former winner but has been running over the jumps so although he should be fit he may struggle to go the pace. Therefore I would expect Annemasse to lead on that side. However, it’s unlikely that he’ll relish the conditions (only one run in 11 turf runs has been over slower than good – 5th of 9).
I don’t think there will be much pace on of the low numbers unless Little White Lie decides to stay there but I think he’ll join the middle group where he may just be caught out for a bit of stamina at the finish.
Fremen, Escape Route, Rio Riva and Fajr may notice that they’re not where the pace is until it’s too late. Fajr however may go with the middle group and should be fit enough having already won in 2008. At his best last season he finshed place in a Group 3 (on soft) and he may be a tough nut to crack although he may be slightly better over 7f.
Low numbers finish
1. Fajr (should join the pace in the middle but might not quite get to the close up horses there)
2. Little White Lie (should also join the middle but may also be done for a bit of stamina)
3. Rio Riva (2nd last year but may not be up with the pace to quite get there late on)
4. Fremen
5. Escape Route
6. Annemasse
7. Blythe KnightThe middle numbers [/color:3qqqpegm]
There is one lead horse (Prince Forever) who seems to pull hard. He’s only raced over 7f so he may be held up to get the trip but if he naturally pulls hard I can’t see the horse liking those tactics. Therefore I think he’ll blaze a trail up the middle and play ‘catch me if you can’. His problem lies in that he has four horses close to him who like to race ‘close up’ (Smokey Oakey, Clipperdown,Temple Place and Classic Port ). Clipperdown has been running in the States since 05 and has never run on ground this soft so I think he’ll struggle to go the pace. More of a concern to Prince Forever is Smokey Oakey, who has won over further and last time out won over 8f in heavy ground. He may just start to win the battle in the middle right at the finish. Classic Port has the benefit of a run in The Lincoln trial at Wolverhampton where he finished 4th, he seems to go well enough on softish ground and should have the stamina too. He may also win over Prince Forever. Temple Place has not run over 8f since 2005 and may struggle to go the pace that Prince Forever sets.
Mine and Vitznau will struggle to get a decent run behind these 5 ‘close up’ horses.
Middle numbers finish
1. Smokey Oakey (close up going a strong pace, with the stamina to see out the trip)
2. Classic Port (as Smokey Oakey but not quite as effective)
3. Prince Forever (blaze a trail but stamina will out in the last half furlong)
4. Mine (super tough and will start getting there but too late)
5. Vitznau ( too late on the scene)
6. Clipperdown
7. Temple PlaceThe high numbers [/color:3qqqpegm]
There are two horses in this third of the field who appear to be lead horses:-
Yeamans Hall (21) and last years winner Very Wise (17). Very Wise hasn’t raced on soft but has placed over 10f on gd/sft . He could still be leading or still be in touch at the finish. Yeamans Hall has placed on soft on his debut run over 8f in a lower grade and will do well to still be there at the finish.
Dhaular Dhar, Babodana and Watamu seem to have different tactics employed i.e sometimes leading, sometimes held up. Babodana has run on soft but it doesn’t seem his favoured surface. Dhaular Dhar normally runs over shorter distances but has won over 8f albeit on good ground. I suspect he’ll be held up to try and get the trip but he won’t quite reach Very Wise. This will be Watamus first run over 8f since 2004, so obviously the distance is not ideal for him and he seems to prefer firmer ground.
Azarole, Raptor and European Dream may arrive late on the scene and I would expect all three to have some difficulty in getting a decent run getting stuck behind two lead horses and possibly on of the other three. They may get into their stride just a little bit too late to get past Very Wise, with Azarole perhaps getting the clearest run
High numbers finish
1. Very Wise (lead for pillar to post on that side)
2. Azarole
3. Raptor
4. European Dream
5. Dhaular Dhar
6. Babodana
7. Yeamans Hall
8. WatamuConclusion [/color:3qqqpegm]
Prince Forever holds the key IMO. Whoever has the pace to go with him and will like the ground and has the stamina to overcome him at the end must have a great chance.
Final placings [/color:3qqqpegm]
1. Smokey Oakey (10’s available)
2. Classic Port (28’s available)
3. Very Wise (14’s available)
4. Fajr (20’s available)5. Prince Forever
6. Little White Lie
7. Azarole
8. Raptor
9. Rio Riva
10. MineWhether you choose to follow this info. or not Good Luck to you all
Hello,
Wow!!
This your own stuff Prince??
Well done,
Last time I wrote anything that long it was called The Bible…
Good information, whether it was you or pure plagerism..Thanks..
regards,
doyley
Since the stalls on the straight course usually go stands side (high) that section of the track gets more churned up than the far side (low) and so is slower ground. The meeting is usually held over three days with the Lincoln on the third, so by the time we get to this race, the stands side strip of ground and most of the centre has had three days worth of racing on it whereas the far side has had much less racing on it.
Interesting ideas Andrew but have you overlooked the races that take place on the round course over the usual three days? These tend to go far side in the straight
When the Lincoln was run in ’05 (last time it was held at Donny) by my reckoning there had been seven races on the round course and eight on the straight, so that suggests to me that both stands’ side and far side will have had approximately equal wear ‘n’ tear.
IMO the ground will be considerably better for tomorrows Lincoln over the whole width of the straight than is the norm, due to postponement of the first two days.
Incidentally, as this will be the first Lincoln run on Donny’s newly reseeded turf I’d be very wary of placing much faith at all in historical draw-bias stats as an angle into tomorrow’s race.
Good luck to those punting this jolly-old race, just hope your hard work isn’t rendered pointless by the track being knee-deep in snow
Great post Prince Chicaf, I’ve had a couple of quid on Fajr E/W, mainly on the fact that every time I’ve seen Gay Kelleway interviewed over the winter she’s said that this was the target, I’ve also had a small bet on Mine(an old favorite of mine), think he’s way overpriced and a ten year old has got to win it some time
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.