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Would like to get some views on what will win the Lincoln.
I’ve picked out Vitznau and Little White Lie, on the basis that they’ll go well on soft ground and have good speed figures.
Little White Lie is trained by G Lyons who seems to have only a few horses, but they’re good ones and he does well with what he sends over to England. I see Ryan Moore is booked and the horse had a run recently on all-weather to get spot on for Saturday.
Vitznau is Hannon/Hughes. Came second in a strong 7f soft ground Newmarket handicap and was staying on well, so hoping this extra furlong at Doncaster could be ideal for him. I trust Hannon getting a horse straight first time out for the Lincoln.
Regarding the market leaders, Zaahid and Lang Shining – they look like they may not even get in the race – how can they be so short in ante post prices?
I’ll have Rio Riva & Zaahid please.
RR may look exposed, be a touch older than ideal, have a lot of weight, & be in with a few unexposed horses…. but not sure he should be a 25/1 shot. This is the type of race his connections like imo. The RP says Zaahid should get a run, he looks the typical lightly raced 4yo in the mould of Pablo & Streams of Gold. Not sure if Lang Shining will get a run though. I can understand your thinking with Vitznau.
Any thoughts about the effect of the draw, or not ?
am clueless about draw. all i’ve read is that the clerk of course thinks there is no draw bias as they came up the rail for one meeting and up the middle for another, which leads him to conclude no draw bias (?).
Anyway, more generally, i think the investment going on in returfing the top tracks is making every effort to remove draw biases, so i am going to try and ignore any pointers and bet on the basis of no draw bias!
Thanks for pointing out Rio Riva, already second in a Lincoln and conditions should be perfect – fast run mile on soft ground. Can more or less forget last two runs on fastish ground.
See its 19 now on betfair and could be a good straight place bet, about 5 or 6.0 maybe
I’m sure the draw will play a part in some way. In the past, they have run the Spring Mile (a similar race) a day or two before. This time I think it’s on the same card. So there won’t be many advanced clues.
I agree about the place chances of Rio Riva. It’s also first time out and a straight mile as well, which may help. I really wanted to get a little bit of place money down on him. The normal bookmakers must be at bigger prices that Betfair, because he was 25/1 with William Hill a bit earlier…and I’m sure my £10 e/w wouldn’t have caused any ripples!
I know the engine starts roaring on Dubai World Cup night but the Lincoln is a race which I am very excited about!
Will check the field out later this week.
Just to correct an assumption that Ger Lyons has a small but select string, he must have nearly 100 horses in training, many of them by definition moderate – he’s sent out 53 runners at the new Dundalk track for instance. That doesn’t preclude a possible victory in the Lincoln I hasten to add.
Glad to see im not the only one interested in Rio Riva. Has an excellent record fresh too.
Im thinking that the draw will be biased to the higher numbers. I have been looking that some of the 7 furlong and mile races since the reopen and in fields which have large numbers the highest seem to prosper.
Certainly wont be wading in until i see the draw. I will also wait until the spring mile runs too to get an idea too.I fancy Heaven Knows for this.
Drop back in trip an obvious concern but he travels very well so should be able to lie up, will love give in the ground and absolutely no doubts surrounding his stamina.
Haggas had a 1st & 2nd at big prices with his only runners over the weekend and HK has shown that he can win first time out.
Be interesting to see who rides – assuming Hills rides the fav for his dad.
Lee
I fancy Heaven Knows for this.
Drop back in trip an obvious concern but he travels very well so should be able to lie up, will love give in the ground and absolutely no doubts surrounding his stamina.
Haggas had a 1st & 2nd at big prices with his only runners over the weekend and HK has shown that he can win first time out.
Be interesting to see who rides – assuming Hills rides the fav for his dad.
Lee
Lee,
Was thinking the same. Haggas has been quoted that there is little point in running in the Lincoln unless you feel you have 7 pounds in hand.
I would imagine Martin Dwyer rides, as he is second jocky to Hamdan Al Maktoum.
Quite a positive too if that means R Hills isn’t up.
I think Haggas has to be one to follow in these races of course, but is this a race that suits those dropping back in trip?
When the competition is feirce i really like to stick to those at optimum distances
Im not a great one for trends without solid reasoning but can any of the knowledgeable posters or Davidjohnson illuminate on past records here?
I think Haggas has to be one to follow in these races of course, but is this a race that suits those dropping back in trip?
When the competition is feirce i really like to stick to those at optimum distances
Im not a great one for trends without solid reasoning but can any of the knowledgeable posters or Davidjohnson illuminate on past records here?
Clivex
Since 2001… All 75 horses coming down in trip from their last run on grass have been beaten in The Spring Mile and The Lincoln.
Very Wise and Blythe Knight were both winners at 10f earlier in their career. The years before that pair, the race has gone to unexposed 4yo’s in the shape of Stream of Gold, Babodana and Pablo. The latter is the angle I’d be playing but the market does seem all over that at present.
A big field, galloping course, probably strong pace on and going softer than good – isn’t that likely to place a greater demand on stamina and hence suit those who can stay further than the mile?
Those planning a punt may care to note that race-shape and stamina considerations may be influenced by the somewhat unusual scenario of strong NE winds forecast for Saturday, which approximates to a tailwind on the straight mile.
I backed three on monday which have all been cut in since but the two which still look quite good value are Vitznau (still available at 16s) and Raptor (20s still available).
Raptor was quite well spoken of prior to this race last year when he first came over from germany, and he ran a decent race for 4th, he has since settled in over here, and they reckon he’s in great shape for it so having targetted it last year it could be back on the cards, and if he has improved he shouldn’t be far away, especially with the ground expected to deteriorate further.
Vitznau is one Ive always quite liked and is another who should thrive in the cut and is capable of a good run.
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