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Snowman, I have to agree with MrE here .. you are quite right in your assumptions about the mathematics of big numbers and occurence and the discreditted ‘Martingale Plan’ which seems to be the route of most of the horse racing staking plans that are flogged to novice punters (like 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, or 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 64 points – stop at a winner). But roulette is a different thing all together, DISCIPLINE old boy.
MrE – sorry to hear about the tooth mate, nothing a couple of whiskeys won’t sort out I hope !!
The trick to all of this I suppose is the skinny over round??
Hi guys<br>Good post – hope you don’t mind a tuppenyworth from a newbie. I have played roulette for just under a year and been very successful. I’m in agreement with Mr E (although I note snowy and others don’t disagree with the whole thread). The way I would put it is that it’s the difference between probability and EXPERIENCE. I don’t mean "experience" in the sense of skill, just what one’s experiences have been to date. When I started playing the numbers I was incredibly lucky. 20 bets on a 37 table kept coming up a winner – time, after time, after time. Then when it started changing i.e. one of the 17 non-covereds would come up, I would think "Christ, that number 2 or 5" so what would I do? I would cover 2 or 5. But why? Because they had come up against me and registered on my radar – keyed into my human-ness, if you know what I mean, made me aware of them. the reality was that the probability of 2 or 5 coming up was just the same as any other number. That got me thinking – I took the Mrs into Billy Hill’s for a go on the ITbox. Gave her no advice and watched her turn £50 into £200. Asked her which numbers she was covering – dunno, she said. Just lucky I guess, she said. Ok, I said, this time watch the table 10 times (you can obviously watch for free by placing level stakes on red and black) and try to spot so-called "hot" and "cold" numbers. It hindered her rather than helped. Why? Cos we’re human – we’re influenced by what came up, when, etc. I.e. we apply experience to what is probability.<br>Therefore the secret to my (very modest) success is to try to combine probability and experience. I know red can come up 5 zillion times on the trot but when would it? On the other hand, I know it can come up 10 or 11 times on the trot and destroy your bank. <br>Cover the numbers you want with modest amounts (20ps should keep you in the game) and look for patterns. You may have 5 odds on the trot. Take it from me, odd may come up 6th, 7th, 8th occasion but rarely more. Look at the columns – I’ve never had the middle column come up 5 times (I like level stakes on the 2 end pillars). Track the zero for Chrissake – if you start betting higher, insure yourself on zero. In fact, get your own back. Start looking at zero as one to bag – be the predator not the prey.<br>Final thought – russian roulette – 6 guys, one gun, one bullet, 6 chambers. The chamber is spun every time so the odds remain the same for each guy. Do you think the 6th guy is more or less confident than the 1st after the first 5 all survived? Experience or probability? Don’t get them confused. Have you ever seen a roulette table go red, then black, then red for more than 10 spins?
Bin57again…… that was a cracking post and I think you probably explained it better than I did….. and I’m pleased that I aint alone….. I will always remember that last little gem, that was a little diamond….. "Be the predator not the prey"…. I wish I’d have thought of that myself…. the analogy with "Russian Roulette" is true too, why do punters assume that they MUST lose because the mathematics dictate so….. pooh to the mathematics, be your own masters and dictate to others what you want and don’t let others dictate to you. Were all brainwashed in this society that we must lose if we gamble….. forget it, it’s NOT TRUE…… very good post Bin57, lets have more and we might get somewhere….<br>:biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin:
MrE
Very good thread guys, some interesting points made. I just want to take up what you were saying MrE about backing short priced horses etc… and the only way to go is back bigger prices (which I fully agree with). Your Roulette posts were interesting as you said "nullifying" the tables edge, but you admit you can never rule it out. And you suggested bookmaker overounds are about 112% (agree there too), but you can "eliminate" the bookmakers cut, by ruling out horses that are a shorter price than they should be. It takes a huge amount of effort & time, but it can be done. There is no easy way of making money gambling, no system will continually win, but be prepared to use your instincts as well as a sound system and then your talking. No system should be ridged.
Hi Shoes, lets take this back to the very beginning, the start, before we get to deep into this. This began with the bad choice of betting grossly odds on nags and comparing it with betting on Roulette, there is NO comparison, Roulette has it beat EVERY time. I have shown 6 different people on how to play the game, 4 are winning regular as clockwork, the other two are watching and being cautious, which is sensible. Not one of the 6 are losing money (or if they are, they aint told me). Their biggest complaint, and they all voice as one on this….. it’s bloody boring….. I aint gonna keep on boring the arse off people by going over old ground but if you all take a step back and take a fresh look at the numbers game, you will see that it becomes easy to get a win @ 1/2, even 1/1 aint all that difficult really. Its just as Heinz57 says when comparing with Russian Roulette, just because 5 chambers have been empty doesn’t make it an odds on cert that the 6th chamber has got a bullet in it and anybody who reckons its an odds on shot to explode into the brain of the recipient, I’d lay ’em every time cos the odds aint changed, its the same play only in reverse with the wheel…… we can go on all night with this, there will be those that agree or disagree, and thats how it should be, but just have a look next time your betting at 1/3 on the hosses, I’ll favour a better bet on Roulette for the same stake and I’ll have a better chance of winning. Everyone that knows me on here must know by now that I’m a stickler for staking and discipline, thats the only way to win at Roulette or horses or doggies for that matter, you MUST have the basic concept of money management and if you go smacking about blind, then your in for a good thrashing whatever your poison…… one last thought, and I think I’ve said it before, 1pt profit each and every day will give you 30pts profit each and EVERY month, I know scores of people doing that on roulette but I don’t know many that can even get close to 30pts profit every month on the GG’s……. but are you disciplined enough, can you win 1pt and leave the game without wanting to play on, not many can, thats one bet on perhaps your first spin of the day, then leave, no probably not, thats where the discipline comes in…… it can be done and it aint as fearsome as some would believe, I know cos I’m doing it…….. great fun this ennit…… hehehehe…… I aint putting any smiley’s up cos they don’t seem to be working (unless its my ‘puter).
MrE<br>
Smiley’s don’t seem to be working. :(
I wasn’t picking faults with your roulette ideas at all. Just making the point if you know the horses, have a system, prepared to be flexable, you can "eliminate" the bookmakers mark up.
If your making money at roulette I`m more than happy for you ;) :biggrin:
I do by the way only back horses at big prices, if I can rule out a 6/4 shot (and I mean really rule out), then I’ve take a big slice of the bookmakers make up.
As with all things in life, if you put in the hard work, you will reap the rewards.
I`m not sure who’s signiture it is, but it’s very apt.
"You can only be unlucky if you have left something to chance."
Hi Shoes…. I know just what your saying and I agree mostly. I know that with careful study and hard work you can pull the odds in your favour, especially if you can find the "bad value" bets that your on about. I sorta bet the same way myself I suppose, although I am a law unto myself when it comes to the GG’s or the "little critters", I also agree with you that it can be profitable, no probs on that front mate. I suppose that what I’m trying to put over is that contrary to popular opinion, Roulette is one of the fairest games going because the "take" is fixed, there is no going,draw bias or past form to consider. If you pick an even money shot, you’ve got an even money chance except for the zero, but if the zero has just landed, it PROBABLY won’t land again, so you have a true even money chance, that just doesn’t happen with the GG’s…… my own assumption of course but I will always maintain that I will get more even money winners on Roulette than you will get on the horses……. good discussion by the way, but it will prove fruitless because you cannot unbrainwash the majority, they honestly believe that the numbers game is more risky than betting on animals, surprising ennit…..
MrE<br>
Hi guys<br>Just another little idea to consider. <br>How many people pick up a racecard or the RP in Ladhills on a wet Tuesday afternoon and say, "Right yer buggers, I’m gonna bet on every bloody horse in every meeting this pm. I’ll have a tenner on Old Gladys to win; couple of quid on Lazybones to place..oh and I’ll phone the Mrs to get her to lay Sillysod cos he’s well overhyped. Blimey, is that the time, they’re going in at Monmore, better stick a few quid on Tr4 – dunnowhy, like the name – Dog Corleone or something".<br>No – the only guys who do that are the oldfellas with their navy cigarettes and cartridge ink tattoos. Godbless em, we love ’em, but they’re Losers.<br>So…nobody bets in an undisciplined manner like this. We have a fag and a coffee and carefully make our selections. We know all about mid-morning tipsters and movements of the market, headlines in the RP and loud whispers in the bookies – but they don’t influence us.<br>But – roulette players don’t apply the same philosophy. They bet and bet and bet on anything and everything. Black, odd, even, high, low, you name it. They lose. But often they’ve been up for a while. That’s what keeps them there. With racing you have a few minutes to appreciate you’ve lost £50. Not with the wheel. It drains you so fast.<br>Tip – set yourself 10 spins or 20 spins and keep to it. Set a target of 10pts or 20pts and then leave. Remember – if it seems easy, stop soon. It’s not, you’re on a role but it will turn on you. Nobody imagines they can keep picking a winner, why imagine the wheel will keep paying? Another little helper I have, is I say, right I’ve made £20, I’ll use that as free bets on the nags. Don’t mind losing. Not my money.<br>One final thought – not probability but similar to what we’ve been saying through the thread. Arsenal unbeaten in the premiership. Do any of us really think they can keep this up for another year? No. Millersfield y’day – not a single Tr2. One for the memory bank. Would anybody think me nuts for backing Tr2 at the next Millersfield meeting?
Not mad, just silly, if you were to back T2 at Millersfield. I`m not going to explain why, I`m sure you already know.
(Edited by Sailing Shoes at 12:38 pm on Feb. 25, 2004)
Hi Bin…. you’ve been great up until now, but that last bit was NOT the way to win anything at Roulette, if your gonna play every spin for 20 spins. your back to gambling unwisely, you might as well send me the money and save yourself the time. I haven’t got time to explain again now cos the missus is shouting to go out again, I’ll try and get a reply in tonight…….
MrE
Sailing<br>No I’m not that smart on the hounds. Haven’t got a clue. I went to Wimbledon last Friday and won a packet on Tr2 since it hadn’t come in for some time. I guess you’ll think I’m a nutter but it worked!<br>Mr E<br>I look forward to it. Cheers, BakedBin.
Bin57,
Hmmm….. I’m pleased that you won, does’nt make any sense to me though.
I’d be interested if you could get today’s results from Millersfield posted, see if T2 came out good.
Sailing<br>To be perfectly honest with you (and I’m sure you won’t be surprised) I have absolutely no rational for arbitrarily backing one particular trap. That said, trap stats are not much help either – with say a 17% strike rate (which is pretty high) you could go for a long while without seeing your beloved number come in. Besides, how different is it to always backing a 2nd favourite? Sometimes, your number will be the outsider, sometimes the favourite. I raised it though to show some similarity of my thinking with the roulette wheel – i.e. EXPERIENCE – and I have yet to find a meeting where a number doesn’t come in within about 15 races. So, for example, at Belle Vue a number of weeks ago, I noticed that Tr6 hadn’t come in all night. I made a conscious effort to back Tr6 at the next meet (which was a morning meet). I placed £2 on the first race and doubled through the card. I didn’t get far – race 4 – £8 at 7/1. Granted, it probably more realistically would be 7/2 or 5/2 but outsiders do win (as we all know). <br>I looked for Millersfield this am. Couldn’t see it, otherwise I would have backed Tr2.<br>Brough Park and Brushwood – I’ve never backed them; they’re too early in the day for me; a mate does – he backs 6 and always comes good. He knows, I know, you know that it could all go horribly wrong. BUT IT HASN’T…yet. EXPERIENCE. William Hill’s site has got a good reults section – you can go back a number of weeks. Please prove me wrong – you may save me a lot of grief. This isn’t a soap box for me or a tip to anyone – I’m just saying, it hasn’t happened to me.<br>As a point of information, at Wimbledon last Friday, the RP tipster got 1 out of 13. <br>Happy sailing.
Well, I can only go from my experience, and if you were doubling up on that bet at Belle Vue you should have been having £16 on, e.g. 2 – 4 – 8- 16 (race 4) that would have cost you £30 had T6 not won. 3 more races without a T6 win, you would have put on £432, a couple more races, and you’d need to remortgage your house. I can only say stop, one day you’ll get hit, and you’ll never recover. Study form and statistics and you’ll not only win, you’ll enjoy winning.
Hi Guys, I aint long been in and I’m just a shade knackered tonight, so apologies to all but I’ll leave what I was going to say till tomorrow…….<br>G’night all….. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
MrE
Sailing<br>I know you’re right of course. I do tend to let the first few races pass and then go in. But we won’t debate this further because I would be a voice in the wilderness. As for form, got any suggestions? I tried looking at a dog’s 2nd best start and finish times to get more of an idea of its overall ability. That didn’t work. Tipsters are hit and miss and not much fun. Droopys worked for me for a while but there are so many of them. Any pointers would be gratefully received.<br>Bin57
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