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Probably not the classiest of renewals but two or three unexposed and promising sorts head the betting.
The two I’m keen on at the moment are FAIRYLAND and FRONTIER DANCER, from two powerful stables.
Fairyland from the irresistable Henderson yard has been favourite for this since comfrtably winning a listed event at Newbury (where FD finished a 5 length second) off a mark of 126, and is only 7lb higher in this. Prior to that win he was third twice in two competitive hurdles at Cheltenham and Kempton and should be in peak condition for this race. Wouldn’t want any slower than good to soft at Ascot on Saturday but has a decent chance of adding to the stable’s imperious record in this race. I expect the current odds of 7/1 to contract on the day and looks a good bet at the moment.
Frontier Dancer has a similar progressive profile and is only 1lb higher than when finishing 2nd to Fairyland at Newbury. His record also suggests a liking for good ground so its weather permitting as well, although he did win at Warwick on soft ground. 12/1 looks a cracking eachway bet.
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I’ve taken the gamble that the JP camp stick to the plan and run Belvano on Friday and Get Me Out of Here in this.
Both will win
I’ve nibbled away at Zabeel Palace at 12 – 15 on Betfair for this, based on his running with Harry Tricker and that one’s run in the Greatwood. ZP runs off 127 here, not sure of the maximium hurdles field at Ascot though.
If he doesn’t get in, do I get my stakes returned ?
Novices have a shocking record in this race, as do horses aged 8+.
8/8 aged 5-7
7/8 were top 3 lto
7/8 debut or ran once that season
7/8 5 or less handicap runsFrontier Dancer has reportedly come on a ton for his run fto and race conditions may well see him reverse form with Fairyland.
12/1 ew get the polos out ta
I noticed Stravinsky dance was at much bigger prices lastweek,hes been backed out of Henderson runners as he was resposible for the last 2 years runnings winner.I looked at its form but run twice at Autiell and won both.Can anybody shed any light on the value of the form?
Stravinsky Dance
I don’t have complete record to hand at the moment – will post it in more detail in the morning but she’s run at least 6 or 7 times at Auteuil – the Racing Post’s database is incomplete and http://www.france-galop.com is a far better facility and will include all the details of her career starts.
She started favourite for the Grade 3 Prix Bournosienne last November, effectively Frances top 3yo fillies hurdle. She won easily that day beating some pretty useful rivals (Bonita Du Berlais to name just one). She wasn’t really up to the task in the Spring at Auteuil but did run the top class Long Run to under 2 lengths over hurdles in April. I have him down as a low 160’s horse over fences at the moment and Stravinsky Dance gets into this off a mark of under 140 so on that form she’s certainly thrown in. Bit worried that her last start was a disappointing run behind the ill-fated star hurdler Rendon’s Grace. That was her first run in Robert Waley-Cohens colours, I presume he still owns her given he has a number of horses with Nicky Henderson (including Long Run) though he seems to be putting his son Sam up on a lot more of his own horses so that would be a worry in such a big field handicap as this.I’ve taken 16’s and 12’s about her anyway as on her best form she’s probably a stone well in if adapting to the UK style of racing.
Martin
- Total Posts 17716
I’ve nibbled away at Zabeel Palace at 12 – 15 on Betfair for this, based on his running with Harry Tricker and that one’s run in the Greatwood. ZP runs off 127 here, not sure of the maximium hurdles field at Ascot though.
If he doesn’t get in, do I get my stakes returned ?
No we share it and buy beer
All bets stand run or not but you have no worries if he is an intended runner he will get in. 21 ran in it last year
Maximum daytime temperature for Ascot on Saturday is currently forecast to be minus 1 Celcius.
Mamlook has a liking for Ascot and its one of thoses horses for courses type tracks I feel. He is decent each way at this stage although no money will be invested until the weekend.
Maximum daytime temperature for Ascot on Saturday is currently forecast to be minus 1 Celcius.
Stay in bed?
Last week the Bookies have got Atouchbetweenacara as fav all week and we all know what happened there!This week its Harry Tricker,another one who wont be winning,Whilst Pepe simo is running at Cheltenham against the likes of Dunguib,Harry is getting beat at lowly ludlow against Nortonthorpe lad off a mark of 121.Yes he ran a great race against Khyber kim,but at the weights,he carried a measely 10-3 he had too!That is the form line that the Bookies are clinging to,in pricing him up at 5/1fav.i will defineately avoid this race like the plague!
You may not have to if its called off! Certainly not a race to have a meaningful bet on, but Frontier Dancer and Fairyland will have my small stakes. I am in agreement that there is no clear favourite for this; Harry Tricker didn’t find much in the Greatwood when push came to shove and Pepe Simo has to shoulder a big weight. Stravinsky Dance’s French form is hard to evaluate, and although Get Me Out Of Here is unbeaten, its hard to figure out what exactly he has beaten so far (probably not much with respect) but his last win was a step up. Maybe as an outside bet Gee Dee Nen can rekindle his old useful flat form at Ascot over the sticks? 33/1 with some bookies isn’t too bad.
Stravinsky Dance
I don’t have complete record to hand at the moment – will post it in more detail in the morning but she’s run at least 6 or 7 times at Auteuil – the Racing Post’s database is incomplete and http://www.france-galop.com is a far better facility and will include all the details of her career starts.
She started favourite for the Grade 3 Prix Bournosienne last November, effectively Frances top 3yo fillies hurdle. She won easily that day beating some pretty useful rivals (Bonita Du Berlais to name just one). She wasn’t really up to the task in the Spring at Auteuil but did run the top class Long Run to under 2 lengths over hurdles in April. I have him down as a low 160’s horse over fences at the moment and Stravinsky Dance gets into this off a mark of under 140 so on that form she’s certainly thrown in. Bit worried that her last start was a disappointing run behind the ill-fated star hurdler Rendon’s Grace. That was her first run in Robert Waley-Cohens colours, I presume he still owns her given he has a number of horses with Nicky Henderson (including Long Run) though he seems to be putting his son Sam up on a lot more of his own horses so that would be a worry in such a big field handicap as this.I’ve taken 16’s and 12’s about her anyway as on her best form she’s probably a stone well in if adapting to the UK style of racing.
Martin
I’ve got her down as not that well handicapped, Martin, I have to say. The run against Bonita Du Berlias is a much fairer reflection of her merit than the effort against Long Run, imo, and I also reckon she wants further than 2m and could get taken off her feet.
It’s not so long ago that French horses could be backed at crazy prices in UK races, because the racing was considered second-rate. Now we have moderate French horses being priced up at single figures in comeptitive handicaps, based on not much more than the names of connections. It’s a bizarre turnaround, to say the least.
I will be place-laying Stravinsky Dancer for my plums come Saturday.
Stravinsky Dance
I don’t have complete record to hand at the moment – will post it in more detail in the morning but she’s run at least 6 or 7 times at Auteuil – the Racing Post’s database is incomplete and http://www.france-galop.com is a far better facility and will include all the details of her career starts.
She started favourite for the Grade 3 Prix Bournosienne last November, effectively Frances top 3yo fillies hurdle. She won easily that day beating some pretty useful rivals (Bonita Du Berlais to name just one). She wasn’t really up to the task in the Spring at Auteuil but did run the top class Long Run to under 2 lengths over hurdles in April. I have him down as a low 160’s horse over fences at the moment and Stravinsky Dance gets into this off a mark of under 140 so on that form she’s certainly thrown in. Bit worried that her last start was a disappointing run behind the ill-fated star hurdler Rendon’s Grace. That was her first run in Robert Waley-Cohens colours, I presume he still owns her given he has a number of horses with Nicky Henderson (including Long Run) though he seems to be putting his son Sam up on a lot more of his own horses so that would be a worry in such a big field handicap as this.I’ve taken 16’s and 12’s about her anyway as on her best form she’s probably a stone well in if adapting to the UK style of racing.
Martin
I’ve got her down as not that well handicapped, Martin, I have to say. The run against Bonita Du Berlias is a much fairer reflection of her merit than the effort against Long Run, imo, and I also reckon she wants further than 2m and could get taken off her feet.
It’s not so long ago that French horses could be backed at crazy prices in UK races, because the racing was considered second-rate. Now we have moderate French horses being priced up at single figures in comeptitive handicaps, based on not much more than the names of connections. It’s a bizarre turnaround, to say the least.
I will be place-laying Stravinsky Dancer for my plums come Saturday.
It’s interesting that you allude to pricing judged on the name of connections; an example of this could be seen in the first race at Newbry today – Osric, went off 9/4 favourite despite the fact he’s had obvious training problems and Henderson himself admitted he’d definitely need the outing – a crazy price in a competitive 15-odd runner novice hurdle.
An even better example was the McManus-owned, Doumen-trained, McCoy-ridden juvenile Good Lord at Newbury.
It had achieved not very much in three hurdles outings in France, but was a 5/4 chance against a couple of previous winners today. There really was no form evidence to suggest he was anything like as useful as the price indicated, yet he was backed regardless.
Perhaps the misleadingly high mark of 130 allocated by our handicapper helped put people away?
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