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Another race whereby trends are strong and certain trainers do very well. I have backed one from a top yard who are not firing on all cylinders yet but does very well in this race.
Yard is none other than Nicky Henderson and the horse has very good form to bring to the table and ran a blinder FTO after appearing to blow up!
Get on Chatterbox EW at 14s with Laddies as they are NRNB
Agree, looks excellent value although goes right handed for the first time. I’ve backed Court Minstrel at 20s, ran encouragingly in the Greatwood despite being at the rear, trainer likes winners at the track and looks reasonably handicapped. If the ground comes up good he has a chance.
Another vote here for Chatterbox. The 14’s NRNB was a very fair offer, too good to refuse. The 10’s available, still looks very generous as well. Think he’s much better than a handicapper, and though slightly disappointing on his comeback, the hope is that like many of Hendersons, he’ll have needed it. Looks nicely weighted, and I’ll be a bit surprised if he doesn’t go close here. There’s certainly the question mark over going right handed, but my main concern would be his hurdling, as he’s got a tendency to miss a couple…..it certainly cost him his chance in The Neptune at the festival. Henderson, also has the favourite in
Rolling Star
, who’s available at 6’s. Won nicely at Haydock, and obviously a horse of huge potential, whether or not he’s got 7lb in hand of Chatterbox at this time remains to be seen, but hard to knock his place at the head of the market, given connections. I’ve got to side though with the swing in the weights, and the better price of Chatterbox.
Behind Chatterbox at Newbury was
Chris Pea Green
. Hasn’t done too much wrong, and caught my eye on more than one occasion. Looks the type to become a standing dish in these handicaps, and although he’s got a wee bit to find with the likes of Chatterbox, and Pine Creek, the 16’s available looks a cracking each way price, and sure to give supporters a proper run for their money.
Fighting out a cracking finish in The Greatwood were
Dell’ Arca
, and
Sametegal
. An admirable run from both, and although Dell’ Arca will be slightly worse off, I’d still (though hard to split them) favour the Pipe Horse. If over those exertions, then both obvious dangers. I always like to keep an eye on any runners from the Pipe stable in these big handicaps, and Dell’ Arca, rightly, is near the head of the market. He’s still got 6 in the race at the moment, and the ones which catch my eye the most, are
Dan Breen
,
Ronaldo Des Mottes
, and
Swing Bowler
. Swing Bowler is the most obvious of these 3, hugely impressive at Musselbugh, before finishing third to My Tent Or Yours, and Cotton Mill in the The Betfair Hurdle. If forgiving her, her poor show behind Quevega at Cheltenham, you could argue she has the look of a "plot horse", and I’m currently giving serious consideration to the 16’s available with Betvic. Dan Breen would have to overcome a quick turnaround, having finished unplaced at Cheltenham on Friday, however, would be no surprise to see him line up in an effort to repeat his 3rd place in this last year. He’s an in and out sort, and though he may need the heavens to open a bit, the use of a decent claimer again, may see him surprise a few. 40’s still available. Roanldo Des Mottes has never really fulfilled his early promise, but as a result of that, he’s priced accordingly at 33’s. Although he’s hardest to make a case for, he shaped well at Sandown last time, and I just have this hunch that that was to get him spot on for this.
Pine Creek
, and
Flaxen Flare
weren’t totally disgraced in The Greatwood last month, finishing 6th, and 4th repectively, and no surprise to see them getting competitive in this. Pine Creek has already beaten Chris Pea Green this season, and based on that run has a live chance. Although he didn’t get as close as I expected at Cheltenham, I’d struggled to see him out the 3, he brings winning course form. Flaxen Flare looks as if he’s coming over again, and the fact that connections are heading across the Irish sea again, would suggest that he’s ready for a big run. Well supported at Cheltenham, and very worthy of a market check in the days ahead. I’d favour him to finish ahead of Pine Creek again, and the 16’s looks very big for a Festival winner, coming off the back of a 4th in a very competitive hurdle at Cheltenham.
City Slicker
had this earmarked immediately as his target after his last win, and could easily be another nice Ascot prize for Willie Mullins. As low as 6’s, if he lines up, I’ll be a bit concerned about him.
One dark horse could be
Recession Proof
. Looked as if he was going to the top before injury intervened. Returned on The Flat, and although he didn’t trouble the judge there, or on his return over hurdles last month at Cheltenham, he’s sure to be getting his fitness back slowly but surely. Like many of these, showing a lot of blue on Oddschecker, but there’s still 33’s available with Corals. I’m sure there’s a few who may be tempted to take a chance at that price.
Chatterbox for me then, but definitely going to get involved with a couple of the Pipe runners…….no doubt, only to see one of his other runners romp it
GL
Racing Post currently quotes Ascot as good to soft. Heavy rain forecast for Monday night through to early Tuesday morning. Further rain forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday (possibly heavy on Wednesday) and possibly showers Friday night. If the course does get it heavy tonight then with the forecast for rain most days until Saturday it maybe a soft ground forecast for the weekend.
With this in mind I like the look of Chris Pea Green as well. Looks like he will go on most ground conditions and with two good runs already this season you would like to think he would go close.
Old Chesil Beach Boy is another who shouldn’t mind whatever conditions apply and is available at 33’s with William Hill. As low as 16’s with Bet365, Betfred and Ladbrokes. Not sure who will be riding but 33/1 might be a decent EW shout if a professional is booked.
The other of interest is Willows Saviour who won at the course over 2m4f. Obviously has speed too as then won over 2m at Musselburgh
I’m with Flaxen Flare here, Elliott’s horses always have to be respected in these big handicaps and he won this last year with Cause of causes,a quick scan through Cause of causes and Flaxen flares show a lot of similarities between the 2 and this may just have been the plan for this boy since his Cheltenham win at the Festival.
Both horses were/are 4 year olds and finished 2nd in the Galway hurdle in the summer and both on their last run before the ladbroke hurdle ran well in the Greatwood at Cheltenham, Cause of Causes ran off 142 and Flaxen flare is on 142 or 141 i think also. Is this going to be a mirror image job this year?I doubt this boy can win like cause of causes did by demolishing the field but once he wins or places i’ll be happy enough
- Total Posts 764
Ptit Zig
- Total Posts 764
Ptit Zig
Oh god just seen the weights!!
I have added Totalize EW at a massive 25s, is very well weighted and has the beating of Flaxen Flare and Ptit Zig on Festival form. Brian Ellison loves a tilt at the big races and this one could surprise a few
I’m on City Slicker ante post but given the hike in the weights I don’t think I’d be lumping on at 7 or 8/1. Of the remainder Gordon Elliott’s Flaxen Flare makes plenty of appeal. His profile is strikingly similar to that of Cause Of Causes as Fran points out. He ran a good race in the Greatwood and it wouldn’t surprise to see him involved at the business end again.
Is he a likely runner?
Great write-up once more, VTC.
I’m betting Willow’s Saviour who’s improved a ton since joining Dan Skelton. Whatever the ground, it won’t matter to the 6-y-o course winner who’s been campaigned around 20f for most of his career. But he had enough speed to win a Class 2 over 2m at Musselburgh last time on good.
Currently 20s on Betfair
Good luck to all
Joe- Total Posts 17716
SAVE YOURSELF THE BOTHER IN THIS, THEY KNOW!,
wait until the day and just write down on the slip unnamed sp favourite.An absolute mine field of a race and one that must bring out the masochist in me, because I love it. The top three in the weights (Ptit Zig, Sametegal and Rolling Star) all look very capable of taking this, and one of them could turn out to be a bit special and waltz away with this, but they will have to be special to carry 11st 12lbs or 11st 11lbs against a very competitive field. Simply at the prices, I would be inclined to some e/w on Ptiz Zig at 20/1 and Sametegal at 16/1 with 888Sport if I were going to have a punt out of that bunch.
Pipe knows how to have one ready for this type of race, his most fancied runner Dell Arca will certainly handle the ground and is open to a lot more improvement (like a lot of these) but at half the price of Ptiz Zig at 10/1 (as short as 8/1) and 2lbs worse off than their last meeting I don’t see the sense in following her….bound to make a fool of me now. He also has Swing Bowler running who, take out her last run at the festival, has very good form and carrying 10/11 on anticipated soft ground which she will love, I’d rather take the 16/1 with Victor Chandler.
However, at this stage I’m throwing my hat into the ring along with VTC (cracking summing up there Bobby) and aaronizneez and going for Chris Pea Green, still on offer at 16/1 with Boylesports. Gary Moore is near on a par with the likes of Pipe and Henderson when he targets a horse at big handicap races like this and I think he is the value in the market.
I’ll probably have another punt before the race, but I’ll wait and see how it develops before I do.
I quite liked the look of Kaylif Aramis for NTD and was keeping an eye on the market as anything that the NTD yard think is is with a shout is always bet. I was a bit slow off the mark and missed the 33s, but grabbed some of the 25s which is still available with a couple of bookies. He has had two decent looking runs after the return, the second of which he was still going very well when he tipped up 2 out at the Cheltenham meeting, he should be spot on for this.
I’m glad I had taken the 16/1 for Chris Pea Green, pretty much 12/1 everywhere, you can still catch 14s at Ladbrokes but I doubt that will last too long.
I got a free £20 matched bet offer when I put my bet on Kaylif Aramis with SkyBet, so as it isn’t costing me I’ve stuck it e/w on Ptit Zig at 16/1. He could be a class above them here, but I worry that the weight might do him. Anyway, at 16s on a free bet it won’t hurt much if it turns out he is too weighed down.
That’s definitely me, my book is now officially shut for the Ladbroke.
Best of luckI am diving right to the bottom of the weights and picking Willow’s Saviour to lift this one. Not much cop last season he absolutely hosed up at Ascot over 2 and a half miles before dropping in trip to 2 miles for a comfortable win under a six pound penalty at Musselburgh. He is up in class here and taking on bigger names but, at 14/1 as I write, he makes each way appeal as an improver who has won at the course and who has won over further, which could be an asset if the race turns into a furious big field showdown.
After a first fence faller and a pulled up the past two weeks a change of luck surely awaits.
Willow’s Saviour
10pts each-way 14/1 Stan James
Go on ye Skeleton lads!!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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