The Kelly Criterion

[Gingertipster]

That’s not a bad idea Dolus.

Will give it some consideration. Do a few tests.

Thanks.

Value Is Everything

[cormack15]

I quite like that wee formula too Dolus – Let us know how the tests go GT.

[Drone]

Cormack, Ginger et al

I recall having mentioned this a few times before but anyway…

…a simple if not wholly foolproof method to determine whether you are adept at assessing the ‘true (less untrue) probability’ of a horse’s chance (over a suitably large, bigger the better sample) is to run whatever value-based staking plan you’re using in tandem with 1pt level stakes.

Then at the conclusion of the experiment simply work out the POT/ROI of the two plans

If your value-based variable staking plan outperforms level stakes you can be quietly confident you are better at assessing true odds than the market as a whole

You do of course need to make a profit in the first place for any staking plan to outperform level stakes

[dave jay]

I agree with Formath, everything else is pretty much juggling around with numbers.

[Dolus]

I’m not sure what Formath means.

If you are confident that the odds calculated for a selection represent value then stake at those odds to return say £100.

I am assuming this means that if I think the horse is a 1/1 shot and the odds available are 2/1 I would have to stake £50 to return £100 at 1/1, so I put the £50 on at 2/1 which would return £150.

If you are correct and thew selections wins but at shorter odds then you should still get a reduced return, but if the odds lengthen it will be a skinner for you.

This is the bit that throws me. If I have already made the bet the odds changing would make no difference.

[freddyflaps]

freddyflaps

‘Fortunes Formula’, Have seen that book often but never read it, must put it on my to do list.

http://www.makebetterbets.com Looks an interesting site though at the time of writing 9:00am they only have the last race from last night up.

Looking at that I have a feeling that the horses they give the best chance to will always be over bet compared to the prices they suggest, but at least it is something different and FREE at the moment.

I think you may be right. As for the only having the race from the night before, I noticed that, but I think its because they only post information 4hrs before the race.

But like you said free.

[Dolus]

Freddyflaps

You are right about them starting to post the info 4hrs before the race.

I did venture back a few times during Saturday and found the whole thing a bit of a mess.

They had horses running in the first race as also running in the second and third race.

There were too many horses with not known against them and was amazed how much each race changed as race time approached, giving me the impression that it was the market that was playing a major part in the predictions.

[Author]

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