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The weights are out for one of my favourite races at The Festival….am I alone here?
The race looks to lie between Enda Bolger and Willie Mullins (no radical thinking here) with last years winner, Sizing Australia, the most likely to gatecrash their party, despite the 10lbs pull in the weights from 2011 enjoyed by Garde Champetre, more than fair I’d have thought
No real surprises in the weights other than the 9st10lbs allotted to Arabella Boy who has some very good pieces of form against Grade 1 horses could easily seen him set to carry a stone more. If he takes to the Cross Country fences he looks absolutely thrown in.
Before I take the plunge I’ll wait for Nina Carberry to decide between ARABELLA BOY or GARDE CHAMPETRE her choice would be my choice. Garde Champetre, despite his advancing years, should have the beating of Scotsirish with the slight swing in the weights from Punchestown where he stumbled at just the wrong time and lost more ground than he was behind at the finish. The better ground and longer trip also favour, not to mention the difference in ability between Nina and JT on one team and Patrick Mullins on the other. Enda’s riders are worth at least 7lbs in this race.
The short list of riders capable of winning this race is very short indeedI can’t see how Garde Champetre can win this, as long as the jockeys do some extra revision on which course to take entering the final stages!!
There’s no way GC would have been within 10 lenghts of the leaders last time out at Cheltenham. Backed Balthazar King that day and feel like there might be some unfinished business there so I’d go with him at the odds. He was staying on well under pressure and think he’s worth another go, although maybe Scotsirish could be a tough nut to crack.
Another with decent e/w value I think is A New Story. A bit long in the tooth but was placed in this race last year and will be 7lb better off with Sizing Australia.
Bring on day 1!!! Best day of the meeting for me.
I can’t see how Garde Champetre can win this, as long as the jockeys do some extra revision on which course to take entering the final stages!!
There’s no way GC would have been within 10 lenghts of the leaders last time out at Cheltenham. Backed Balthazar King that day and feel like there might be some unfinished business there so I’d go with him at the odds. He was staying on well under pressure and think he’s worth another go, although maybe Scotsirish could be a tough nut to crack.
Another with decent e/w value I think is A New Story. A bit long in the tooth but was placed in this race last year and will be 7lb better off with Sizing Australia.
Bring on day 1!!! Best day of the meeting for me.
A bit like writing Kauto off, I thought the same, however GC’s last run at Punches was a cracker and with a weights pull he should be in the shake up.
I can’t see how Garde Champetre can win this, as long as the jockeys do some extra revision on which course to take entering the final stages!!
There’s no way GC would have been within 10 lenghts of the leaders last time out at Cheltenham. Backed Balthazar King that day and feel like there might be some unfinished business there so I’d go with him at the odds. He was staying on well under pressure and think he’s worth another go, although maybe Scotsirish could be a tough nut to crack.
Another with decent e/w value I think is A New Story. A bit long in the tooth but was placed in this race last year and will be 7lb better off with Sizing Australia.
Bring on day 1!!! Best day of the meeting for me.
There are a few other factors to take into consideration other that reading the route. GC has a pull in the weights, the firm ground woudn’t have suited in November, the horse goes much better for Nina than he does for JT, Nina’s a real master(ess) at cutting corners, watch the way she switches her horse from inside to outside to gain ground at almost every turn. She’d have had Garde much closer in that race than JT had him. Enda is qouted as saying "She’s been the making of the horse (GC after he came from JohnJo) he runs and jumps for her"
That said I have a feeling Nina will ride Arabella Boy, JT can’t do the weight on either of Enda’s other two and they’ve got such a good working relationship with each other that Nina will probably give up her regular mount (GC) and go the lighter weighted Arabella Boy so that JT get’s a ride in the race. She did that in November. Don’t be surprised if she gets On The Fringe in The Foxhunters as a trade off.
Her brother will probably make the running in The Cross Country on Heads On The Ground.
Bottom line : I’m already leaning towards Arabella Boy but like Shack says "You write GC off at your peril"Very good points indeed. I can’t pretend to know anywhere near as much as most on here so I’ll take your advice under consideration!!
Simply based on his lone performance over this c/d though I do like the chances of Balthazar King if he’s recovered from that crash last time.
I remember my first festival in ’09 watching this race and was amazed by it. So if I can’t win would like nothing more than seeing the old boy GC win it again.
Cracking race whatever the result, a real spectacle to watch.
I note that James Ewart has Captain Americo entered in this event. This horse has plenty of ability, but hasn’t quite clicked enough to win this season. This quirky contest could be right up his street.
Rob
Can’t see beyond Scotsirish and Sizing Australia, class vs course and distance form. Opted for Sizing Australia at 6s.
Hi Rob
Thanks for tip off. Read your notes and have been backing CA religously all year…luckily E/W so had small returns most runs!! The way he runs in terms of no pattern around whether "he stays" or "doesn’t stay" long distance trips suggests to me that this could be right up his street…to the extent that I’m about to look at Oddschesker and see who is offering best price nrnb and then back it.
Also I have a sneaking feeling, as per a poster in another thread, that Maljimar will run another good race. Backed it last year and still in an ongoing battle with a certain bookmaker around whether I get paid for it finishing 4th after only 15 ran last year but I had backed in a week before in nrnb ante post market….but that;s another story!!
So to sum up 2 for the race are CA and maljimar but with weights as they are would also fancy GC if Nina on board
Thanks again Rob for highlighting CA possible participation
yorkiedips
Following on from the above, if this is a handicap why at antepost stage are some bookmakers only going 1/4 1,2,3 when they have more than 16 runners listed?
is the decision re e/w top 3 or 4 at their discretion?
Also interestingly the one I am in dispute with from last year re 4th place, who have just gone nrnb, are offering 1/4 1-4…something I will be highlighting to them!!!!
Yorkiedips
Captain Amrico is a horse i’ve kept my eye on for a while, but unfortunately I can only be drawn to conclude that unless it gets a walk-over, or the authorities introduce a five + mile chase, it will never actually win a race again.
Decent horse, but too highly marked and sadly lacking in gears, which is precisely what is required at the end of this race.Stick with the main four, split stakes accordingly and return a profit.
The closer it gets the more my confidence is growing for Garde Champetre to wrestle back his crown.
Rewatch the last run in Ireland when second to Scotsirish, awful mistake at a really bad time cost him dearly.
With Nina up and the satnav gauranteed, I think will go really well again.
PS – I love this race, only problem is I stand next to my brother watching it and it bores him to tears. lol
Firstly, I can’t say I fancy any of Willie’s lot one bit. It seems like all the other contenders have been held back waiting for this one. Maljimar looks a major contender considering how last years’ race worked out and how the ratings have come out since. He’s 12 now, and it’s probably his last chance to win it, but he was well fancied last year, and given this years entries I think he may well go better this time around. I think Mullins will have a cracking first day and he may well go off at a bigger price than his current 8/1. May well be one to get on late on the day
Before betting on this race, one needs to understand the history and tradition of Banks racings. The “Arc De Triumph” of this discipline is the 4m2f La Touche Cup run at The Punchestown Festival which makes the cross-country race at the Cheltenham Festival look as unchallenging as the flatter parts of Norfolk. There are banks and stone walls and fences and all sorts to be confronted as the horses criss-cross and track back all over the course . Enda Bolger has dominated this race, winning 14 of the last 16 runnings a record that is unequalled in the world of racing. With all respect to the great Michael Dickenson, eat your heart out Sir! …and Bart Cummings doesn’t even come close.
Since the introduction of a cross country race at Cheltenham he’s turned his hand to the Glenfarclas with almost equal success having won four of the seven runnings of the race with three different horses. His stable jockeys are JT MacNamara and Nina Carberry, Nina rode three of these Festival winners.
Enda himself was one of the finest amateurs ever to throw a leg over a horse and is most famously associated with the amazing Elegant Lord who probably should have had a Gold Cup to his name were it not that Enda kept him to Hunter Chasing.None could be blamed for backing one of his runners blindly in this race, if for no other reason than the man’s unbelievable record in this type of event, but add to that his attention to detail in preparing an animal for these fences combined with the sheer horsemanship and the seemingly built in compasses of Nina Carberry and JT MacNamara and the stable is hard to oppose. It came as no surprise to those who follow Banks racing to see only two horses take the correct route in the Novemver Cross Country were ridden by those two jockeys
It came as no surprise to those who follow Banks racing to see only two horses take the correct route in the Novemver Cross Country were ridden by those two jockeys
While there is sense in your post generally CS there’s nothing at all to be gleaned from that fact because in fact the only
three
horses to take the correct course occupied the final three places in running at the time and were far enough behind to see the carnage that happended at the bend, enabling the jockeys to take corrective action.
The interesting thing for me in that race is Wedger Pardy. You wouldn’t give him a cat in hells chance normally but he was going well enough and leading when he took the wrong course and he gains no real advantage by doing so (bar missing out one fence). Now watch the race again and in camera view at the bottom of the screen you can just about see him finishing his ‘race’. The jockey, realising the error of her ways is motionless all the way up the straight and you can just make out the jockey’s cap crossing the line,
ahead
of the hard ridden ‘winner’ Garde Champetre.
Off a feather weight of 10st 1lb he could have e/w claims at the 25/1 mark.
ScotsIrish for me though as he’d have left GC for dead but for the last fence mistake LTO and he still managed to regain the stride for a comfortable win. Mullins, albeit in typical style, really seemed to fancy him in yesterday’s weekender as well.
I notice he hills Hill’s offer of the day today and currently available at 4/1 which I think is a good enough price to tempt me in.
Lee
Interesting interview with Tom George on sporting life site saying it wasn’t worth going for this race as prize money in France is substantially better.
Wilson
Some good points, Wedger Paddy did run really well, he’s suited by Cross Country racing, but your suggestion (If I read your post correctly) that Nina Carberry would be following anyone to guide her round the correct route did make me laugh.
Yes. Sorry THREE riders took the correct route, Katie Walsh being on the third, another Class act of course
Decent horse, but too highly marked and sadly lacking in gears, which is precisely what is required at the end of this race.
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