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MTOY was impressive but didn’t have to be great to beat the field. Think it’s premature to be cutting him for Champion Hurdle’s – The New One still the pick for me!
Aye, Gord, he certainly looks the part and will hopefully get better as he ages. I didn’t think he settled quite as well as many were saying, although that should improve with time too.
I managed to jinx Jezki talking about his slick hurdling – he was very sharp throughout until the last two. Sudden veering at flights/fences always makes me wary that the horse has tweaked something in a leg or foot and is trying to favour it.
It looked workmanlike in the end, but AP got there too soon, I think. And that was quite a bit better field than MTOY beat.
I’m still with The New One, although I have a nagging feeling that Our Conor might just do what he did in March and hose up. But of the remainder, I do think Jezki remains overpriced.
Agree Joe, MTOY didn’t settle that well Saturday. Doubt whether that will ever change now. Though I can’t quite see how you get that he’s anything but a good jumper of hurdles. Seems fast and (usually) fluent to me.
Performance was ok, but don’t think we learnt anything. Had the form already in the book to beat Cockney Sparrow and Grumeti as easily. For me, the question remains what will he find off the bridle against top class opposition? Particularly on a stiffer track. MTOY the only one in the Fighting Fifth with genuinely top class form.
Christmas Hurdle should tell us more if meeting an in form The New One. Hopefully Twister will be in better nick by then. Before today I believe 1 winner in last 64 runners.
Value Is EverythingGinger, I don’t want to make out that MTOY blunders his way round all the time – far from it. He’s a passable jumper but to be 7/2 at this stage in what will be the hottest Champion Hurdle, arguably since the Night Nurse/Monksfield/Sea Pigeon days, I’d be looking for ultra-slick technique of the Make A Stand school.
Perhaps it is his rangier build that prevents him mastering the hurdling art (much more difficult than many think, as you know).
Jezki is a fair bit smaller than MTOY – an asset in this case as his technique shows. Jezki also settled much better yesterday than MTOY did on Saturday and the style in which he kept on after errors at the last two – the final flight one could have been particularly costly – augurs well for facing the Cheltenham hill.
On the other hand, MTOY’s free-running style, should it continue, will be against him when the gas pedal goes to the floor after the last in the CH. Jezki’s 2m4f victory against better opposition will stand him in good stead in the Champion against an out and out 2 miler like MTOY. 7/2 is daft and should be laid with confidence.
Not for the first time, I’ve rambled on longer than I intended!
Ginge, I thought MTOY settled well considering they hardly went Champion Hurdle pace. The quicker the pace the better he will travel and jump as travelling at pace will come natural to him. How people can have 6 ahead of him I find staggering but each to their own. One things for sure it all makes for a cracking race come March.
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
My Tent or Yours is a more efficient hurdler than Jezki in my opinion. I would not be concerned by MTOY’s jumping. He looks a class horse. It’s a competitive looking Champion Hurdle at this early stage but would expect if MTOY’s preparation is okay, he’ll be very close.
Punters tend to over exaggerate these races before they are run too and later after them one or two of the big names get beat, the race is under-rated. Reality is somewhere in between. 2011 CH renewal is a good example – Menorah, Binocular and Peddlars Cross were viewed a lot differently going into that race to what they might be now.
Our Conor still has a lot to prove too. I’d be a lot more confident in the Supreme form than I would the Triumph form. Hurricane Fly is getting on now and while a great servant, he can’t go on forever. His recent return to action, while excusable, is something you might expect of a champion rising 10. It’s just an early sign that the great performances are going to be less frequent. The New One is a contender I’d be a big fan of and would expect like MTOY if everything goes to plan in the lead-up, he’d have a serious chance.
Ginge, I thought MTOY settled well considering they hardly went Champion Hurdle pace. The quicker the pace the better he will travel and jump as travelling at pace will come natural to him. How people can have 6 ahead of him I find staggering but each to their own. One things for sure it all makes for a cracking race come March.
My Tent Or Yours
settled imo ok, no more than that. But as you say Nathan, it should not hinder him in a truly run Champion (as long as it is truly run). Zarkander may well be in the Stayers Hurdle and Rock On Ruby may not run. What top class horse is going to take them along? Hopefully Diakali? I’d be more concerned with what MTOY will find up the hill. No problem on flat tracks, but Cheltenham?
That said, I agree – has an excellent chance. Marginally favour
The New One
over MTOY at this moment in time, but it is only marginal. Impressive in Neptune and ran established hurdler Zarkander close at Aintree, each time looking likely to be suited by a shorter trip. Blew them away on reappearance, though that form looks suspect.
Our Connor
is the other with a massive chance on last year’s form. Never seen a Triumph performance like it. Far West, Diakali and Rolling Star all beaten out of sight, yet franked the form since. However, Our Connor has had an injury since and a bit to prove now.
Luckily Nathan, I don’t need to choose, with ante-post bets on all three since March. All three need to improve, but have potential in abundance.
Jezki
might be a danger, but his size puts me off. IMO Doesn’t have the scope for further improvement as the other three second season novices. Hasn’t needed to improve to win either start this term. In my opinion not as good a jumper as owner-companion, making mistakes in latter stages of both Cheltenham and Fairyhouse.
Hurricane Fly
can’t be written off. But is he still capable? Never brilliant first time up, but way short on reappearance this term. Will be 10 years old defending title, had 32 races and been on the go since a two year old. Possibly (if not probably) on the downgrade now. If so, it would not be a suprise if retired soon. Even if able to recapture brilliant best has at least three with potential to give him a harder time than previously at Cheltenham.
One that could replace her stable companion is
Annie Power
, form is improving, but the Ascot performance looked more like a stayer than two miler.
Value Is EverythingMy Tent or Yours is a more efficient hurdler than Jezki in my opinion. I would not be concerned by MTOY’s jumping. He looks a class horse. It’s a competitive looking Champion Hurdle at this early stage but would expect if MTOY’s preparation is okay, he’ll be very close.
Punters tend to over exaggerate these races before they are run too and later after them one or two of the big names get beat, the race is under-rated. Reality is somewhere in between. 2011 CH renewal is a good example – Menorah, Binocular and Peddlars Cross were viewed a lot differently going into that race to what they might be now.
Our Conor still has a lot to prove too. I’d be a lot more confident in the Supreme form than I would the Triumph form. Hurricane Fly is getting on now and while a great servant, he can’t go on forever. His recent return to action, while excusable, is something you might expect of a champion rising 10. It’s just an early sign that the great performances are going to be less frequent. The New One is a contender I’d be a big fan of and would expect like MTOY if everything goes to plan in the lead-up, he’d have a serious chance.
The Triumph form’s been downplayed by a few, but it doesn’t look that bad to me. Far West has been a bit disappointing, but Diakali has won 3 since – 2 of them Grade 1s. Sametegal was 2nd in Scottish Champion Hdl, won on his seasonal debut then caught a tartar of Pipe’s in Dell A’rca to whom he just failed to give 16lbs.
Rolling Star won nicely at Haydock last week and NJH is now talking Champion Hurdle with him. Chris Pea Green has run fine races in defeat in two hot handicaps.
The Supreme form looks top notch, but what must be borne in mind was the style of OC’s Triumph victory. The horses mentioned above have performed pretty solidly yet, if you watch the end of the Triumph again, they all look as though they are involved in the race and Our Conor has just been sent out like some kind of equine lead car in a Grand Prix or something. Seriously, the race is worth watching time and again imo to see a horse who travels supremely well without the flashy keenness of the likes of MTOY. At a point where the principals should all still be motoring, OC comes clear under little more than a reins-shake and saunters home as though he were a different creature.
If you did want a strict formline interpretation linking the Supreme and the Triumph, MTOY beat Jezki just over 2 lengths at levels; Jezki beat Diakali just over two lengths conceding 4lbs. Both these races were pretty hard fought. Our Conor beat Diakali 22 lengths in a common canter.
Dessie Hughes reports OC to be very well and coming along nicely, and he’s a man who knows about winning Champion Hurdles. The other big plus for OC is that nobody yet knows how good he is. We’ve seen the others beaten, but not Our Conor. He could well turn out to be the best hurdler any of us have ever seen.
Good post SC, and I agree about Our Conor.
I’ve voiced concerns about his well being over the past couple for months but recent comments suggest he’s very well as you say. The form with Diakali looks solid. I don’t think Diakali was seen to best effect at Cheltenham but at Leopardstown Our Conor beat him comfortably by five lengths, which isn’t bad form in itself.
What’s most likable about Our Conor is the rate of improvement in his four hurdle runs. It was rapid and there’s no saying where that improvement may stop.
That being said, 5/1 for the Champion Hurdle doesn’t really tempt me at the moment.
My Tent or Yours is a more efficient hurdler than Jezki in my opinion. I would not be concerned by MTOY’s jumping. He looks a class horse. It’s a competitive looking Champion Hurdle at this early stage but would expect if MTOY’s preparation is okay, he’ll be very close.
Punters tend to over exaggerate these races before they are run too and later after them one or two of the big names get beat, the race is under-rated. Reality is somewhere in between. 2011 CH renewal is a good example – Menorah, Binocular and Peddlars Cross were viewed a lot differently going into that race to what they might be now.
Our Conor still has a lot to prove too. I’d be a lot more confident in the Supreme form than I would the Triumph form. Hurricane Fly is getting on now and while a great servant, he can’t go on forever. His recent return to action, while excusable, is something you might expect of a champion rising 10. It’s just an early sign that the great performances are going to be less frequent. The New One is a contender I’d be a big fan of and would expect like MTOY if everything goes to plan in the lead-up, he’d have a serious chance.
The Triumph form’s been downplayed by a few, but it doesn’t look that bad to me. Far West has been a bit disappointing, but Diakali has won 3 since – 2 of them Grade 1s. Sametegal was 2nd in Scottish Champion Hdl, won on his seasonal debut then caught a tartar of Pipe’s in Dell A’rca to whom he just failed to give 16lbs.
Rolling Star won nicely at Haydock last week and NJH is now talking Champion Hurdle with him. Chris Pea Green has run fine races in defeat in two hot handicaps.
The Supreme form looks top notch, but what must be borne in mind was the style of OC’s Triumph victory. The horses mentioned above have performed pretty solidly yet, if you watch the end of the Triumph again, they all look as though they are involved in the race and Our Conor has just been sent out like some kind of equine lead car in a Grand Prix or something. Seriously, the race is worth watching time and again imo to see a horse who travels supremely well without the flashy keenness of the likes of MTOY. At a point where the principals should all still be motoring, OC comes clear under little more than a reins-shake and saunters home as though he were a different creature.
If you did want a strict formline interpretation linking the Supreme and the Triumph, MTOY beat Jezki just over 2 lengths at levels; Jezki beat Diakali just over two lengths conceding 4lbs. Both these races were pretty hard fought. Our Conor beat Diakali 22 lengths in a common canter.
Dessie Hughes reports OC to be very well and coming along nicely, and he’s a man who knows about winning Champion Hurdles. The other big plus for OC is that nobody yet knows how good he is. We’ve seen the others beaten, but not Our Conor. He could well turn out to be the best hurdler any of us have ever seen.
I’d rate the Triumph form as average at best at the moment, Far West hasn’t been great thus far beaten by Melodic Rendezvous who was then back in 5th behind My Tent or Yours next time out.
Dialaki has won 3 races since but one of them was a 4 runner Grade 3 the second in that race has gone on to finish a 13L 6th in a Grade 1, the other 2 haven’t done much since. The Grade 1 at Punchestown he won was a 6 runner affair with 4 of the 6 Mullins runners … The other win was over 2m3f in Auteil the same distance as the Hattons Grace its a bit further than the CH distance is it reliable? Either way Jezki beat Diakali into 3rd.
Lac Fontana was a disappointing last of 4 first time out, imo Rolling Star didn’t beat much other than possibly an out of sorts Far West?
Having said that Sametegal and Chris Pea Green have boosted the form since.
For me Our Conor was impressive but maybe a little bit flattered by the distance, I’d expect Hurricane, MTOY, The New One and co would have beaten those in the Truimph just as easily.
I still aint sure about the Triumph. I know the form has been franked but there are races where this does happen – quality horses run a bit below par and later perform much better.
The time was slow in comparison to other renewals run in similar conditions.
Visually impressive though.
I still aint sure about the Triumph. I know the form has been franked but there are races where this does happen – quality horses run a bit below par and later perform much better.
The time was slow in comparison to other renewals run in similar conditions.
Visually impressive though.
Mark, Timeform had the ground as soft that day, against the official good to soft. And, arguably, OC could have knocked another two or three seconds off it
I still aint sure about the Triumph. I know the form has been franked but there are races where this does happen – quality horses run a bit below par and later perform much better.
The time was slow in comparison to other renewals run in similar conditions.
Visually impressive though.
Mark, Timeform had the ground as soft that day, against the official good to soft. And, arguably, OC could have knocked another two or three seconds off it
Geraghty, who rode the course, said it was Good to Soft.
Guess i’m just not going in with both feet like many seem to be. Also have less faith in the new jockey.
I still aint sure about the Triumph. I know the form has been franked but there are races where this does happen – quality horses run a bit below par and later perform much better.
The time was slow in comparison to other renewals run in similar conditions.
Visually impressive though.
Mark, Timeform had the ground as soft that day, against the official good to soft. And, arguably, OC could have knocked another two or three seconds off it
Also Joe,
In other years Timeform sometimes gave the going asgood
compared to the official good-soft. So judging times against those on the same "official" ground from one year to the next – can sometimes be comparing
genuinely
soft ground with
genuinely
good. Not suprising Our Conor’s time was slower to other "officially good-soft" runnings.
2013 Triumph time judged by Racing Post Standard (16.6 seconds slow) against those on the same day – compares very well considering 4 year old hurdlers are supposedly not as mature (should improve) compared to Gold Cup horses and handicappers… Even allowing for a bit of rain during the day.
Clerks of courses have a conflict of interest, may not delibetately falsify going reports – but they want the ground to be good-soft, therefore when examining the ground are not looking at it from an unbiased standpoint. It is in their/the course’s best interests to get top quality competitive racing (getting the most/best horses to run). "Good-soft" encourages
both
good ground and soft ground horses to run.
Even before the BHA objective for Cheltenham to start off on "good-soft" ground – bookmakers betting months in advance on what going the meeting would start on, had good-soft at ridiculously short odds… and for good reason.
Value Is EverythingIt became wetter throughout the day – of course the Triumph, being first on the card, is going to compare favourably if you choose to almost ignore that fact with a cursory " even if allowing for a bit of rain during the day ".
Geraghty called it G/S. They changed the going to Soft after the second race.You’re choosing which goings to use to suit the argument
It became wetter throughout the day – of course the Triumph, being first on the card, is going to compare favourably if you choose to almost ignore that fact with a cursory " even if allowing for a bit of rain during the day ".
Geraghty called it G/S. They changed the going to Soft after the second race.You’re choosing which goings to use to suit the argument
I am not "choosing" anything.
It is you who is trying to judge Our Conor on time Mark, saying the time was "slow in comparisson".
Both myself and Joe pointed out why judging times of officially "good-soft" from one year to the next is very difficult, if not flawed. But if you want to believe what one potentially biased course worker and one jockey on top of a horse say – then that is your prerogative.Of course, when it rains between race days (changing ground conditions from one day to the next) and during the day (changing conditions increasingly softer) judging times on the same day is also difficult, if not flawed. But if doing so, (like I said) allowance must be made for rain.
Yes, the official going was changed from good-soft to soft after the second race. However, Timeform rated the going as soft from the start of Friday. So despite ground being rated as
soft from the start
, we need to allow for it getting softer during the day – even though it was
not
enough to change it to
heavy
. Which is why I said
"allowing for a
bit
of rain during the day".
Value Is EverythingGeraghty did qualify his quote:
The pace for the opener was solid, but the time was 16.5sec slower than standard, suggesting that the rain was already getting into the ground. Barry Geraghty´s assessment of the going after this race was: "It´s good to soft, but I´d say it will soon change."
Clerks reports can indeed be misleading, sometimes intentionally (though without malice).
I used to go on about the difference between Timeform’s assessment and that of the Clerk until Graham Cunningham rightly pointed out that Timeform have the huge advantage of hindsight – very fair comment.
But that hindsight only adds to the validity, imo. Timeform are also objective and are probably the most skilled time practitioners in the sport, given their history.
I wonder what figure The Blues Brother gave Our Conor?
Anyway, we shall learn soon enough, I suppose, just how fast Our Conor is.
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