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Sir Percy <br>The recent percentage is to take on runners in the 2000 Guineas running in the Derby, defeat for that race’s winner at the weekend another slight negative- laid at 6/1 post
But is there any reason why 2000 guineas runners should be taken on? And beacuse a trial hasnt thrown up many winners in recent times, should it be ignored?
Im very suspicious of trends unless theres a logical explanation.
Also, bit harsh about GW’s form! I think Saturday proved little either way (though still suprised they ran him)
Betfair and bookmaker reaction suggests Horatio Nelson will be Fallon’s mount. Septimus briefly drifted out to 9/1 at betfair. Surely an overreaction for all you’d rather have Fallon than not.
Quote: from clivex on 10:21 am on May 30, 2006[br]
But is there any reason why 2000 guineas runners should be taken on? And beacuse a trial hasnt thrown up many winners in recent times, should it be ignored?
Im very suspicious of trends unless theres a logical explanation.
Here’s my 2 cents on the issue. I think that there are 2 reasons why 2000 Guineas runners haven’t fared so well in the Derby and they are:
1. The increasing importance of the Breeding aspect of the sport in the last 20 years or so. Horses are being specifically bred for certain distances which means that more and more horses are going to be good at a specific range of distances only (eith 8f-10f OR 10f-12f for example). Therefore it is becoming increasingly unlikely that a horse (especially a 3yo) will have the ability to be competitive at the top level at distances as different as 8f and 12f within 4 weeks of each other.
2. Again due to the importance of the Breeding aspect of the sport, to have a Derby winner or a 2000 Guineas winner is effectively a licence to print money at stud. So if a horse is really a Derby horse, why would the trainer/connections risk him by running him in as competitive race as the 2000 Guineas. Like the Grand National, Derby winners are trained to the minute specifically for that race and you can’t help feeling that any horse who runs in the 2000 Guineas is merely running in the Derby as an afterthought.
Fallon’s on Horatio Nelson VF.
I’m on Linda’s Lad this year, I mentioned last year that it wouldn’t surprise me if the leading Coolmore horse was trained outside of Ballydoyle and the same goes this year.
Dont really agree with the second point…
Why would that apply more now than before (when the gunieas was considered the "best trial")?
Training for the grand national is alot different than this race surely? A top class flat horse will be aimed to peak a few times a season, not just once and 4/5 weeks between the races is a reasonable gap.<br>
Visindar <br>Price owes much to hype and less to the substance of his two recent wins in France, the second of which was visually less impressive but had the clock-watchers in raptures. Given his trainer’s and his country’s record and doubts about trip, track and big field he must be taken on at the price.
I think that he’s the best mover of the bunch. His physique suggests to me that 12f will be his distance and his trainer might be the best in Europe (and his jockey possibly too).
His price (3.55) looks a little generous to me.
Septimus <br>A contender, will be Fallon’s choice I reckon. Ground it out at York, certain to stay. If it comes up soft must be a major player, but have a feeling something may outspeed him on good or faster ground, but respected.
I expected Fallon to choose this one, but as DJ pointed out, market movements suggest he’s gone for HN instead.
Septimus looks the 2nd most likely winner to me. He’ll stay and he’s got class. While it’s possible that he’s not got the turn of foot, it could also be possible that he’s simply not had the ground to show that.
Horatio Nelson
There are 3 things that bother me about this horse:
(a) the negative comments about his physique at the guineas
(b) the way he was campaigned last year suggests that 12f will be too short (combine this with the comments in May about him being "small")
(c) He ran in the 2,000gns.
Sir Percy
Ran in the 2,000gns and had an interrupted prep. PLus I’m not convinced that his 2yo form is what it’s cracked up to be.
Personally, I think Visindar and Septimus coupled is the bet in this race.
Not very original as they were the 1st & 2nd faves 24 hours ago.
But that’s the way it goes sometimes.
Steve
If KF has gone for HN thats a real negative against Septimus for me. I also think its interesting that KF is mentioning Papal Bull….. If that confident about any of the Ballydoyle’s runners, PB would not have been on his lips at all
Septimus looks a terrific leger prospect of course, but also one i could see going well in the arc. Soft going quite likely ( i know connections say otherwise, but he clearly excelled on that) and perhaps the course better suited.
clivex – it is 15 years (Generous in 1991) since a Derby winner ran in the 2000 Guineas and 17 years (Nashwan in 1989) since a horse did the double. The 2000 Guineas can hardly be described as a poor race every year so why is it that its value as a trial has dimished over the last 15 years?
As regards my second point, I think it’s a fair point that the Breeding side of racing determines a lot of the big stables’ decisions. So the likes of Coolmore are going to have one 2000 Guineas horse and one Derby horse. I can’t see them realistically aiming one horse at both – they have more to gain by having 2 excellent stallions than just one brilliant one.
I also believe (rightly or wrongly) that it is too much to ask a 3yo to peak twice at the very top level within 4 weeks this early in their 3yo career. So I will take on any horse who has run in the 2000 Guineas on Saturday.
Well Hawk wing for one didnt run too badly in both races?
Of course there are exceptions to every rule, but wasnt there are rather a long period when no Dante winner won the Derby too?
Frankly I disagree about the peaking over a short period of time too. I doubt whether trainers such as Marcus and AOB would run their charges in the derby rather than Ascot or Goodwood say if they didnt feel they were ready to do themselves justice
I can’t see them realistically aiming one horse at both – they have more to gain by having 2 excellent stallions than just one brilliant one
But Coolmore have done and continue to do so…
Steve, wherever you look in Sir Percy’s form at 2, (and most of it carried over to 3), you see Group class animals.
The Dewhurst was the best 2-y-o race run last season. In that race, Sir Percy beat HN.
(Incidentally, that’s twice now. The 2000 Gns being the obvious second illustration. You highlight two comments which put you off HN. This is the biggest one for me. The fact he’s met Sir Percy twice and has been beaten twice. The formbook seldom lies, but I digress).
Red Clubs, Primary and Close to You are winners this season. Opera Cape and Palace Episode are in the treatment bay at Godolphin but showed superb form at two.
In other words, he beat the best available 2-y-o’s to remain unbeaten and he beat them well.
In one year and two days, Sir Percy has faced 43 horses, (including through running in two Gp 1s and a Gp2) and been beaten by one horse. That horse ran second in a Gp1 on unsuitable ground, finishing lame. Still excellent form.
The fourth and sixth in the Guineas have won since, meaning the race might work out.
Safe to say, Sir Percy was beaten by a good horse in a good race. What more could Sir Percy do? He’s been beaten by one horse in his life; one described fulsomely by KF as the best he’s ever ridden.
The only thing that worried me in the Guineas was not GW, but the fact Marcus Tregoning is a notoriously slow starter. I strongly suspect we’ll see a different horse on Saturday. The stable improves as it goes on. Whether Sir Percy stays is a matter for the Gods, but on publicly available form, he’s the winner.
To summarise, there are collateral lines everywhere, from last year and this which show Sir Percy is the best English colt around.
If you believe there was a poor crop of colts last year in comparison to other years, then I accept your argument about the form.
But I dont think there is a colt in the country – or Ireland – with such a consistent and admirable record.
Maxilon
The fourth and sixth in the Guineas have won since, meaning the race might work out.
It depends what you mean by "work out".
If the horses from the QM Champion chase met a month later over 3m at Sandown, should we expect them to finish in pretty much the same order?
No.
We know that such a significant increase in distance would cause a massive drop in performance level in many of the horses … and that others would be better suited to get the trip.
And that’s the difference between gns form and derby form.
[HN’s] met Sir Percy twice and has been beaten twice. The formbook seldom lies, but I digress).
IMO, the first defeat was down to jockey error. With a better ride, I believe that HN would have won.
And I wouldn’t take HN’s performance in the guineas seriously as he was so unfit.
This is the problem with picking out little bits of collateral form. If horse A beats horse B, what does that tell us if we know horse B was unfil, or didn’t stay or didn’t handle the ground?
This is why I’m not convinced by SP’s 2yo form. People are saying; "he beat HN, who won the Grand Criterium … etc".
There’s no mention of factors that played a major part in that defeat.
Sir Percy is the best English colt around.
Probably the best English 3yo colt. I can’t think of another.
However, as well as believing he might not stay, I’m not sure that being the best 3yo English colt is enough to beat the best of the Irish and the French.
(and the setback isn’t going to help)
Steve
clive<br>Galileo also ran well in both races but neither he nor Hawk Wing actually won the Derby. I appreciate that the relevance of key races depends on each years’ specific contenders (Speciosa in the Nell Gwyn & 1000 Guineas this year is an example) but I will continue to discount the 2000 Guineas as any sort of Derby trial. We’ll have to agree to disagree on this one I think.
Why is it always assumed that SP would have been beaten by HN in the dewhurst. SP has been seen to find more and more……
Hn was invisible in the guineas. it was more than fitness
Clivex,
It was quite clear that HN would have beaten SP in the Dewhurst, your grasping at straws to state otherwise. <br>As a two year old I do believe that HN was a superior horse to SP.
One more thing! You have been pointing to the fact the Septimus has to pushed and shoved through his races – quite correct! However does not mean a thing in relation to his ability to win a Derby or travel around Epsom. In the 2002 Derby, High Chaparral showed exactly the same trait, Murtagh was pushing and shoving for most of the race…..
JohnJ.
Quote: from EC on 12:46 pm on May 30, 2006[br]Galileo also ran well in both races but neither he nor Hawk Wing actually won the Derby
you got me puzzled David :) <br>
Well even though those 2 horses ran close in the Derby doesn’t raise the merit of the 2000 Guineas as a Derby trial. If they had actually won the Derby then fair enough. But they didn’t so until the Derby is actually WON by a horse who runs in the 2000 Guineas, I’m ignoring any horse who runs in both.
I’m actually probably going to ignore the race for betting purposes anyway unless Coolmore put up either Kinane or Murtagh on Septimus. Then I’ll probably be tempted.
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