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Agree about Teenoso – he was a serious racehorse whose reputation suffered by virtue of the fact that the Derby he won was on soft ground. The form of his fast ground King George was exceptional.
Regarding Golden Fleece. We’ll, sadly, never know about him but he certainly gave the impression that he was an above average Derby winner.<br>
<br>They might get a bit more interested in Montjeu’s if Papal Bull wins well tommorrow.
Maybe the future is more Americanised, 8-10f being all important, but I hope not.
Unfortuately, Pennekamp didn’t run after that Derby. So we’ll never know how good he could have been. I think very good, had he had the opportunity.<br>I think the whole issue is that 1m4f around Epsom in June is too early in the year for most trainers to even contemplate risking their very best miler’s reputation over an extended distance. I don’t know about most here, but personally i’m wondering whether the likes of GW and the other proven class acts will even get 1m2f at the moment? If the Derby were a 10f race, i’ll wager that the likes of GW and other proven brilliant milers would be a lot more likely to take their chance in the race. <br>The Derby is all about tradition, lets face it.
"I think the whole issue is that 1m4f around Epsom in June is too early in the year for most trainers to even contemplate risking their very best miler’s reputation over an extended distance."
Most of the very best milers will not be risked over 1m4f whatever the course or time of year.  Don’t see many in the Arc, do you? The reason is they are brilliant milers, not brilliant 12f horses.  Even so, as you could see from my list, a large percentage of recent Guineas winners have run in, or been aimed at, the Derby – but there will always be horses for whom certain races will not be suitable.  If you have a champion sprinter you’ll probably be wasting your time and money over 10f. ÂÂÂ
To be fair to your point, I think one of the problems is the nature of large string stables.  If you have a top quality mile-bred animal, such as Rock of Gibraltar, and a top quality middle-distance bred horse such as High Chaparral, as well as strength in depth, it simply does not make sense to aim them all at the same races.
Obviously, we could make every single championship race over the same distance to give the horses lacking stamina a chance – but that would get a bit dull, surely?
Grassy, you are a beacon of integrity for us all. ÂÂÂ
Quote: from Grasshopper on 8:34 pm on May 10, 2006
The Flat = big business – it’s a plaything of the money-men.
The ‘big business’ aspect of the Flat is a turn-off for me too but ’twas ever the case really and the sport can still be enjoyed for it’s own sake; the ‘business’ side of it is no more than superficial froth to Joe Punter and Jill Racegoer so can easily be ignored.
The current ‘americanisation’ of it with speed being seen as a virtue and stamina as an evil – from a stud value point of view – should concern all as it seems to me to be detrimental to the robustness of the breed causing a decline in both skeletal and cardiovascular strength. It would also appear to me – as a layman – that the bloodlines and therefore the gene pool are becoming less diverse; over-zealous breeding to produce one type of horse e.g milers only leads to the ill-health and mental problems associated with inbreeding: the ‘bad’ characteristics of a bloodline tend to become amplified at the expense of the ‘good’.
Presumably that lunatic One Cool Cat is now at stud passing on his temperament to another generation?
Will George Washington remain tractable? No matter a place at stud beckons regardless.
But RD, as Sal rightly points out, trainers DO risk their top milers year in year out (well nearly) in the Derby even if they have only the vaguest hopes that they might stay, such is the status of the Derby among professionals.
Why, Godolphin even ran a 1,000 Guineas winner in it, in an ambitious and bold attempt to take the great prize.
It remains the holy grail (even if the French have other ideas)!
Jiminy Cricket (still keeping the legend of Slooch alive!) – The French Derby has been changed to 1m 2 1/2 furlongs, as it may well attract any top milers, the French Guineas winner included, whose owners feel that they could possibly stretch an extra 2 and a bit furlongs out of them, without having to go for the possibly costly (in more ways than one) route of Epsom, Ireland, etc
We saw this idea pay off dividends last year, with Shamardal, quint essentially a miler, winning the French Derby from Huricane Run, and looking back now, that was a mammoth battle.
I personally think it was a great idea – the World’s 2 richest races (BC Classic and Dubai WC) are over 10f.
The Arc winner also comes from France quite often because they tend to have a long break in the Summer. As with Hurricane Run and Dalakhani, they run in the French Derby, then the Irish Derby, have a 2 and half month break before the Niel, and then go to the Arc fresh and 100%. A lightly raced 3yo could then possibly go for the Diamond Stakes the next year, being fresh with not many miles on the clock, rather than going for everything (French Derby, Irish Derby, Diamond, Niel, Arc) with an over-raced tired 3yo.
But this is a very interesting thread though. I’m learning quite a damn bit!
Quote: from Grasshopper on 8:25 pm on May 10, 2006[br]Sal, you’ll need to excuse my ignorance – I confess I don’t really know what is in vogue and what is not.
However, from the occassional glances I cast at the Flat, it seems to me (the very casual observer), that there is somewhat of a trend towards 10f races determining who the ‘Daddy’ is.
Wasn’t the French Derby reduced to 10f, or something like that? For what reason? Maybe it isn’t because 10f winners are more ‘fashionable’ these days – I dunno, I’m just asking the question.
I’m not doubting that the race doesn’t attract many of the best 3yo’s of the generation. But it doesn’t attract them all, and surely the point of a ‘Classic’ is to have the best horses in Europe at the distance, taking part?
It just seems to me that a lot of ‘the best’ 3yo’s these days, swerve the Derby for whatever reason, and I’m wondering whether this devalues the race.
It seems, judging from the responses on here, that opinion is generally that the race still very much has a place in the calendar. But is the race still relevant, in terms of throwing out the best 3yo of the generation, or are we more likely to find that one winning something like the Irish or French Derbys?
For example, all of Peintre Celebre, Montjeu and Hurricane Run won the French Derby, followed by the Arc (I hope I’m remembering it correctly). Doesn’t this point to the French Derby throwing out better horses than the Epsom version? And if it does, doesn’t this point to the Epsom race being devalued? Relevant is probably too strong, but it surely isnt the race that it once was?
I dunno – maybe these things are cyclical?
Or maybe I’m talking sh*te – who knows. :biggrin: <br>
<br>IM NOT SURE I AGREE WITH THIS. THE BIG BOYS STILL SEND WHAT THEY RATE AT THE TIME AS THERE BEST HORSE TO EPSOM. SHAMARDAL MAY HAVE WON IT FOR EXAMPLE LAST YEAR BUT GODOLPHIN….WHO ARE DESPERATE TO WIN IT…SENT DUBAWI WHOM THEY THOUGHT WOULD BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO. I CANT THINK OF ANY OBVIOUS EXAMPLES OF BALLYDOYLE SENDING THE BETTER TWO YEAR OLD TO FRANCE. MONJEU, SHAMARDAL AND THE LIKES TURNED OUT TO BE BETTER HORSES. IM SURE THERE PROBABLY ARE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS AND I SUPPOSE THERE IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY THAT THE AGA KHANS FRENCH TRAINERS SEEM TO PUSH FOR THE FRENCH DERBY. JOHN OX HOWEVER ALLWAYS HEADS TO EPSOM. SO TO ROUND OFF MY ARGUMENT, I DONT THINK EPSOM APPEALS LESS TO THE BIG OWNERS THEN IT USED TO. ITS OF COURSE ALSO VERY EASY TO COME UP WITH MANY RECENT ENOUGH WINNERS OF THE EPSOM RACE HAVE BEATEN THE WINNER OF THE FRENCH RACE. NOW THERE IS ANOTHER INTERESTING ANALYSIS FOR SOME OF YOU NERDS :)<br>
(Edited by SirHarryLewis at 10:50 pm on May 10, 2006)
SHL
Quote: from cormack15 on 10:20 pm on May 10, 2006[br]But RD, as Sal rightly points out, trainers DO risk their top milers year in year out (well nearly) in the Derby even if they have only the vaguest hopes that they might stay, such is the status of the Derby among professionals.
Why, Godolphin even ran a 1,000 Guineas winner in it, in an ambitious and bold attempt to take the great prize.
It remains the holy grail (even if the French have other ideas)!<br>
I suppose that it makes obvious sense to aim the horse that is most likely to win, rather than the one with the biggest reputation. If a horse doesn’t get 12f, it doesn’t get 12f. What’s the point of running it if that is the case?<br>I have enjoyed this thread too. Many opinions and many sensible responses.
Mine included I hope RD :biggrin:
Well the problem is that you never really know how far a horse will get. The breeding is always there, but one example I came across doing research the other day. Refuse to Ben is by Sadler’s Wells. Obv. one the best sires of all time. He has racked up countless Group 1s and many millions of pounds.
So why didn’t Refuse to Bend get the Derby trip? Surely there was enough stamina in his sire’s side to see him through? His dam was also Market Slide, a huge stamina impacter – but he barely got 10f and was very lucky to win the Eclipse.
Refuse to Bends Damsire is Gulch an 6-8f American Group 1 winner who brings speed to the breeding down from Mr P, Raise a Native, and Native Dancer. <br>Maybe that limited Refuse to Bend to 10f. <br>Maybe Olympian Oddyssey will be like this and not get 12f at Group 1 but without an Epsom Derby  how would we know ?<br>
(Edited by threenaps at 7:26 am on May 11, 2006)
Quote: from threenaps on 7:24 am on May 11, 2006[br]Refuse to Bends Damsire is Gulch an 6-8f American Group 1 winner who brings speed to the breeding down from Mr P, Raise a Native, and Native Dancer. <br>Maybe that limited Refuse to Bend to 10f. <br>Maybe Olympian Oddyssey will be like this and not get 12f at Group 1 but without an Epsom Derby  how would we know ?
<br>(Edited by threenaps at 7:26 am on May 11, 2006)<br>
Too simplistic I think.. It didn’t stop Media Puzzle staying 2m who was by Theatrical, whose average winning distance is 10.1f for his progeny whilst Sadler’s Wells is 11.1f.
Theatrical’s stamina index needs to be taken with a little pinch of salt – as the majority of his progeny are American.  Over there his horses winning over 10 and 11f are regarded as stayers.  Over here his progeny have included Royal Anthem, Broadway Flyer, Zagreb and Marchand de Sable and he can safely be regarded as a stamina influence equivilent to the likes of Sadler’s Wells.
There is also the question of prepotence.  Sadler’s Wells is definitely an prepotent influence for stamina – in 90% of cases.  However, when mixed with a damsire who is strongly prepotent for speed, the Sadler’s Wells stamina influence is often defeated.  This is most obvious when Sadler’s Wells is mated to Habitat mares – producing milers Barathea, Gossamer, King of Kings, Amethyst, Doowaley, In The Limelight and 10f winners such as Alnasr Alwasheek, Batshoof, Short Pause, On The Nile, Theatre Critic.  Dance Design won the Irish Oaks, but had her better form over 10f.  There is a similar tick with Sadler’s Wells when mated with the Mr Prospector line – Carnival Dancer didn’t stay beyond 10f, and Refuse To Bend comes into this category.
I’ll check out Olympian Odyssey (SW-Selkirk).
Little evidence on Sadler’s Wells-Selkirk, but the only other black-type animal from the cross is Quiff, the Yorkshire Oaks winner who finished second in the St Leger.
On the negative side, Olympian Odyssey’s full sister started off over 10f in France and over the season was rapidly dropped in trip down to eventually finishing second over 6f. (Prescott in reverse?!).  She won a race over 7f, but it was pretty dire stuff at Le Mans, so it may reflect her lack of class rather than anything else.
Visindar<br>Price owes much to hype and less to the substance of his two recent wins in France, the second of which was visually less impressive but had the clock-watchers in raptures. Given his trainer’s and his country’s record and doubts about trip, track and big field he must be taken on at the price.<br>Sir Percy<br>The recent percentage is to take on runners in the 2000 Guineas running in the Derby, defeat for that race’s winner at the weekend another slight negative- laid at 6/1 post Newmarket.<br>Horatio Nelson<br>See above, and well beaten at HQ, laid at 7/1 post Guineas.<br>Septimus<br>A contender, will be Fallon’s choice I reckon. Ground it out at York, certain to stay. If it comes up soft must be a major player, but have a feeling something may outspeed him on good or faster ground, but respected.<br>Linda’s Lad<br>I vaccillate between fancying him and worrying that his trial was run slower than the fillies race the same day and that he has run more often and been beaten more than the typical Derby winner- on balance probably not good enough.<br>Papal Bull<br>Supplemented, like Kris Kin, by his astute trainer- my worry here is why he ran in the Chester Vase, an awful trial, and also that he didn’t travel well in that race- I don’t fancy him at all and will lay him if he shortens much more. When was the last horse to win a handicap then the Derby? Should be twice his price, will be stunned if KF rides him.<br>Hala Bek<br>This would be one of the training performances of the century. Surely his chance disappeared when he was forced to miss his trial.<br>Championship Point<br>Fascinating contender, won the Predominate very well after travelling all the way. Though this is not historically a good trial, this may be because it fell too close to the Derby (2 1/2 weeks) until Goodwood’s first meeting was moved back this year. It also proved his ability to handle an undulating track. Overpriced in my view at 18/1 on Betfair, I will be having some once he’s confirmed a runner and the ground looks decent. <br>Dylan Thomas<br>Did nothing wrong at Leopardstown in traditionally a strong trial, but wasn’t overly impressive either- has a small chance.<br>Atlantic Waves   <br>Would love to have seen this one run again, but the bare Fielden form is not good enough- could see him running well up front without being good enough to win.
What you need for this race in recent years is a horse that is lightly raced but has won a good trial this year over further than a mile and has had a good preparation. This leaves us with Visindar, Septimus, Championship Point and a longshot Dylan Thomas.<br>I will be poorer(and surprised)if the Guineas runners win, and will be backing CP and possibly Septimus( latter if the ground eases)<br>
I’m with you carvillshill, regarding Championship Point. ;)
Formwise, and timewise, he has it all to do. But I was very taken by him at Goodwood – he seemed to posses a great deal of scope, and plenty of improvement to come on his next start. Add in the trip and type of track seemingly no problem, plus plenty of Lomitas’ progeny with winning form on good to soft and soft, and he looks a decent each way bet to me (whatever the ground).
It is a hunch bet – purely based on the way he travelled and handled himself at Goodwood. Although his form with Linda’s Lad does him no harm either. (Gave him 5lb and beaten only a head last season – form wich has been franked twice since).
Got 23/1 the win, and 6/1 the place for him a few weeks ago, and I’m very happy with that.
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