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Why is Tartan Bearer 13/2 and the 2 Godolphin horses 12s and 14s, when they have proven group form and the former has only won a maiden?
On official ratings, there are 30 points between them.
Absolutely crazy.
Think McCartney may yet surprise.
H to the Y to the P to the E. It could only be, no?
It has been supported this morning though.
McCartney’s win at Doncaster hasn’t worked out too well, only Tajdeef among the principles managing anything of note since. He was very impressive however, and looking at his breeding (he’s by ‘In The Wings’- d’you see what they did there?) the step up in trip will be the making of him, I’m just not sure to what degree over 10f at this stage. No question he’s got a fair bit to find on Twice Over, but he’s probably worthy of the ‘main danger’ tag.
Because, Salselon, McCartney is by In The Wings out of a German mare and, whilst handling the quicker ground in the Champagne Stakes (though the form isn’t anything special), looked likely to appreciate a little bit of ease.
Oh, and there’s the fact that both Mark and Deidre Johnston said as much before the horse was removed from their care. But I guess they know nothing either.
From another point of view, Godolphin ruined Winged Cupid in dubai, and mccartney appears to be the second string despite thid being his long term target. If the pace is slow then young pretender could well and truly become involved in the closing stages on this quicker surface, but it is hard to see past twice over. Although to be fair, Twice Over was never campaigned for speed at two, and he never beat Ravens Pass with speed, more stamina. This race could prove very quick, but still think he’ll win (wont back him though), Young Pretender e/w @16-1 in hope of slow clip IMO.
McCartney’s win at Doncaster hasn’t worked out too well, only Tajdeef among the principles managing anything of note since. He was very impressive however, and looking at his breeding (he’s by ‘In The Wings’- d’you see what they did there?) the step up in trip will be the making of him, I’m just not sure to what degree over 10f at this stage. No question he’s got a fair bit to find on Twice Over, but he’s probably worthy of the ‘main danger’ tag.
I was thinking the same, Friggo.
Influences on the sire side of his pedigree for stamina, so should get 10f ok.
Think the ground will be with him today too, seems to do well on a quicker surface.
Why is the fact the mare is erman mean her progeny cannot act on top of the gound?
It doesn’t – it’s lazy shorthand, as plenty of German horses have won on soft (the ground doesn’t tend to get too hard over there), it is assumed that all horses with German breeding require mud.
Messina (McCartney’s dam), actually put in two of her best performances as a 3yo on good ground, and her two worst performances as a 3yo on soft.
I think form of connections is more of a worry.
I’d love Tartan Bearer to win, but not at that price.
Because, Salselon, McCartney is by In The Wings out of a German mare and, whilst handling the quicker ground in the Champagne Stakes (though the form isn’t anything special), looked likely to appreciate a little bit of ease.
Oh, and there’s the fact that both Mark and Deidre Johnston said as much before the horse was removed from their care. But I guess they know nothing either.
LGR,
I’m more concerned with form in the book that breeding when there is evidence of the former to analyse. I also feel the same about trainer’s comments.Well,
– I love a bit of hype
– I think Ryan Moore is the greatest jockey still with a license
– I know Stoute can train a horse to improveThat is why I am on Tartan Bearer, You don’t get speculation from nothing, the horse must be showing something at home.
Disgraceful price though, considering its previous form and the horses it is up against, so I have had a sporting bet.
and to be perfectly honest, 33-1 for him to win today and win the Derby has to be the worst bet ever, but in a couple of hours I could be eating my words as a new 6/4 favourite heads the derby market.
Good Luck everyone
Frozen Fire- Theres your derby winner IMO!
Good Call on tartan bearer Young Mick and Sal.
When Ghaidaa was just beaten at Salisbury I thought it really was going to be one of those days, and now that Frozen Fire has been chinned I know it will
He looks the Derby winner to me, having drifted markedly right under hands and heels.
And I didn’t say that German-bred horses don’t act on fast ground, simply that the presence of a German mare would indicate a possible (or even likely) preference for an easy surface.
I didn’t back anything nor have I backed anything for the Derby but this is difficult to believe. Twice Over couldn’t beat that lot?
I am for once speachless.
Well done Young Mick.
Flash – I think Twice over was a ridiculous price today, and his only strong piece of form was outstaying a non-stayer.
Casual Conquest takes a lot of beating if he lines up now.
What happened Centennial? very disappointing.
Seems McCartney will in fact need a softer surface (
LGR). His action is quite round and you could see that quite some way out he wasn’t going to win.Sounded a good race over the phone to my dad.
I got funny knees when he said twice overs coming for a run, and your horse is going with him, hes p****d it, no wait obriens horse is coming…
33/1 going on the derby, thats something to look forward to i suppose
gutted i took 7s on todays race though
Well done too sal
LGR). His action is quite round and you could see that quite some way out he wasn’t going to win.
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