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I think Golden Horn’s performance is made to look better than it is. The horses in 2nd & 3rd are very slow IMO. I would look away from the Dante for the winner.
I think Golden Horn’s performance is made to look better than it is. The horses in 2nd & 3rd are very slow IMO. I would look away from the Dante for the winner.
Even assuming you’re right about Jack Hobbs and Elm Park being slow (an assertion which I would beg to differ with persnally), surely that’s still miles better form than Grey Lion’s. The horse that finished second to him was dead last in his two subsequent runs. Not to say that Grey Lion can’t win but I can’t see your logic for discarding Golden Horn on the basis of the two horses behind him being not overly fast (even though one is Group 1 winner at 2) and claiming Grey Lion as the most likely winner even though the runner-up in his last run is clearly slower than the aforementioned two.
I personally think we may just have seen the Derby winner today, which is not necessarily good news for me as I had Jack Hobbs at 16/1. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if we have the same 1-2 at Epsom, assuming both line up. The only real danger for Gosden in my mind is Zawraq, even though the fact that he hasn’t been seen since his seasonal reappearance is a slight worry in itself. Aiden’s best (only?) chance now seems to be Giovanni Canaletto, but he’s reached that spot by the act of not actually running.
I think Golden Horn’s performance is made to look better than it is. The horses in 2nd & 3rd are very slow IMO. I would look away from the Dante for the winner.
Where else is there to look though?
Zawraq is incredibly short purely by default. Giovanni Canaletto is a ridiculous price given the form of his stable mates and that’s without taking his setback into account.
I think Jack Hobbs at 8/1 each-way is the soundest value left. If you took Golden Horn out of the race today. you would be left with Jack Hobbs winning by far enough from the Racing Post Trophy winner to be excited about his Derby chance and probably a 2/1 shot for the race with those generous bookies.
Fair enough it looked like Golden Horn was far faster today but he may yet head for France and Jack Hobbs could confirm form at Epsom with Elm Park.
Here’s a photo I got of John F Kennedy and Ol’ Man River in the closing stages of today’s Dante:-
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Jack Hobbs is a Leger horse. A slow Leger horse. If he’s beating Elm Park, even with the benefit of a run, Elm Park is also slow.
I am pretty sure the Derby winner did not run today.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Zarkava wrote:</div>
Aidan O’Brien scotches any notion of @EpsomRacecourse for Guineas winner Gleneagles: “There’s no way Gleneagles will be going to Epsom.”I hope he enjoys watching his boats sailing up Epsom at a leisurely pace in arrears of the leaders.
I don’t think he’s under any illusion that he’s gonna add a fourth consecutive Derby win to his tally. They easily could have supplemented Gleneagles in the Derby if they wanted but I don’t think they see much point in doing so. Ballydoyle/Coolmore is primarily a breeding operation and a top class mile stallion prospect is what they are in dire need of at the moment, not another classic distance sire. They got rid of Duke Of Marmelade after one year or so and they already have the last four Derby winners (Pour Moi, Camelot, Ruler Of The World, Australia) on their roster (and of course Galileo). Their investment in Canford Cliffs, Excelebration and Most Improved in recent years support this assertion. Even though the Derby is one of the most coveted prizes for a stallion prospect, it’s far more difficult to justify dropping a Derby winner back to a mile afterwards. Even with Australia, they were trying to market him as a source of speed saying they would like to take on Kingman at a mile again, even though it was obviously never gonna happen. In Gleneagles, I think they have that exact mile stallion prospect they’ve been craving for (stunning pedigree, looks, attitude and precocity). Doubt they are going to take any chance with that one.
That speed GH showed today might prove the owner’s trump card in any debate over his best trip.
I love unbeaten horses, because they could be anything, and I suspect that applies in spades to GH
If Golden Horn is supplemented for the English Derby then I reckon he will win,a lovely well balanced horse with plenty of speed and acceleration,eased on the line to win comfortably today. He will handle Epsom easily,unlike Jack Hobbs who hung badly today on a flat track,imagine him at Epsom,and Dettori is only any good on steering jobs anyway. Nothing this year has looked as impressive as Golden Horn and Johnny G knows how to train em.
Back to the drawing board for me with the Derby as Ol’ Man River shows he hasn’t got the stuff.
Think I will give the race a break for while, refresh, wait till the 5 day decs and then do some thinking.
Will require lots of thinking I feel.Can I please just for once say “I TOLD YOU SO” . Sorry but this only has to turn up at Epsom to beat all the English horses the dangers appear to be across the water.
Disappointing run by the Ol’ Man today only consolation he finished in front of JFK and that’s not really a consolation as now we know that both horses are not Derby material.
Well done to everyone who went for Golden Horn with Jack Hobbs and Elm Park completly outclassing the other runners.
Steve you were right to throw so much doubt over OMR, I wrongly thought he was worth giving another chance today and everything was in his favour if he was good enough…he just wasn’t. Seeing more of him today he does look a nervy type and when Joseph asked him to go forward today with the rest of the field he didn’t respond I guess he was just a really good 2 year old and hasn’t progressed.
It’s looking like the most low key Derby for years, thank goodness we have Royal Ascot to look forward too.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I wonder if Hannon watched the Dante and thought to himself ‘maybe I should put a bit more belief in Peacock’
I doubt it.Blackbeard to conquer the World
Disappointing run by the Ol’ Man today only consolation he finished in front of JFK and that’s not really a consolation as now we know that both horses are not Derby material.
Well done to everyone who went for Golden Horn with Jack Hobbs and Elm Park completly outclassing the other runners.
Steve you were right to throw so much doubt over OMR, I wrongly thought he was worth giving another chance today and everything was in his favour if he was good enough…he just wasn’t. Seeing more of him today he does look a nervy type and when Joseph asked him to go forward today with the rest of the field he didn’t respond I guess he was just a really good 2 year old and hasn’t progressed.
It’s looking like the most low key Derby for years, thank goodness we have Royal Ascot to look forward too.
Ol’ Man River simply didn’t seem to have the pace to go with them early in the race Jac. He looked to be going pretty much as fast as he could but couldn’t keep tabs on them. He really looked out of his depth. After his Guineas effort I really thought they would give him some time off and draw up a fresh plan for him. Now he seems doomed to the Kingsbarns/Mars route and scraping around looking for soft group races to put on his CV. It’s a great shame, as he was an exciting prospect last year.
I spent most of last season scratching my head about John F Kennedy, wondering why I wasn’t seeing what other people were apparently taking from his races and visualising him as a worth Derby favourite. Big progress was required and while it has happened before, it’s never guaranteed in this game. Where to go with him now is a tricky poser for the Ballydoyle team.
The Dante itself has received a thumbs up from the stopwatch perspective. There is no sense of agreement that slow horses filled the places here, with the race getting a 119 speed rating from Timeform according to Jim McGrath, who added that they have given Golden Horn a rating of 124. The Racing Post have Golden Horn on 122 on their figures and for comparison the general second favourite for Espom, Zawraq, is rated 112 by the Racing Post. Of course Zawraq could improve but he has many more questions than Golden Horn’s single biggest concern, which is whether he’ll be in the race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The Derby is a helluva carrot that’s dangling in front of Mr Oppenheimer. If Golden Horn was my horse, I’d certainly opt for Epsom. He has a great chance of winning it.
I think that Jack Hobbs is still the interesting horse IMO. Early into the straight, I said to my sister that the horse was still looking green and wasn’t fully focused. While I didn’t think he’d win, he left the impression that there’s a fair bit of latent potential waiting to be unlocked. He’ll be far more suited to 12 furlongs than 10 and should he learn to settle better and keep his head straight, he’ll be far stronger at Epsom. Actually, I quite fancy him to turn the tables on Golden Horn if they meet again in the Derby.
The Derby is a helluva carrot that’s dangling in front of Mr Oppenheimer. If Golden Horn was my horse, I’d certainly opt for Epsom. He has a great chance of winning it.
I think that Jack Hobbs is still the interesting horse IMO. Early into the straight, I said to my sister that the horse was still looking green and wasn’t fully focused. While I didn’t think he’d win, he left the impression that there’s a fair bit of latent potential waiting to be unlocked. He’ll be far more suited to 12 furlongs than 10 and should he learn to settle better and keep his head straight, he’ll be far stronger at Epsom. Actually, I quite fancy him to turn the tables on Golden Horn if they meet again in the Derby.
I’ve tried to visualise Jack Hobbs reversing the form if they meet again but I just can’t see it. For me, Golden Horn has that ability to track the pace and then quicken through at the business end and that tactical pace is always going to be a potent weapon.
I reckon Jack Hobbs is a bit underestimated at 8/1 though. I think he’ll confirm form with Elm Park at the longer trip and Zawraq is false odds in my opinion given what little he has actually achieved thus far. I would need “with a run” prices to be thinking about Giovanni Canaletto and I think it’s a brave man who feels this unexposed Ballydoyle horse is going to prove much better than nearly all of his stable mates, who have fluffed their lines, sometimes more than once, this season.
There is a hell of a lot of dross in the Derby betting, horses who won’t be running and ones clearly not good enough. It may cut down to quite a small field and the Gosden pair have strong claims in a field of crocks, boats and question marks.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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