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I know it’s a little early, but I’ve been looking at the County Championship odds. No huge surprises, the only ones that interest me are Hampshire at 15-2 and Worcestershire each way 14-1.
Durham will probably be competitive again though I’d like to see how Will Smith does. The signing of Ian Blackwell is a curious one, certainly strengthens the lower order batting and a useful one day bowler, but not the penetrative spinner you would think could make them the perfect team.
The time to back Notts was last year (I didn’t) and though they did astonishingly well to finish second despite 4 (5 if you count Pattinson) international call-ups, I wonder if they get a couple of injuries at the same time whether they could cope. Some astute signings though. 5-1 is about right, certainly not stand-out.
Hampshire I like the look of and if they carry on as they left off, they will be tough to beat. They finally got the management structure sorted, the discovery of Tahir was a masterstroke and the blossoming of Dawson a bonus. Duncan Fletcher should be able to get a new tune out of their batting line-up.
Lancashire have cleared out some of the oldies and the dead overseas wood and with Peter Moores and a few youngsters, should do better this year, but neither they nor Yorkshire are exactly poised for a Championship bid. Sussex look a little tired and Somerset need a bowler, if not two.
Worcestershire will probably not win the County Championship. But there is no way they should be longer than Warwickshire. The Frost-Salisbury show will not be as effective at a higher level, they have released six players and brought in just one. Worcestershire have a potent attack of Simon Jones, the rejuvenated Kabir Ali and Ashley Noffke and their batting, even without Hick is solid enough. 14-1 is too high.
Bets
Hampshire to win County Championship @ 15-2 (Boylesports)
Worcestershire to win Championship @ 14-1 EW (Paddy Power)Good luck with those Andrew,
Hampshire have a wizard in Tahir and if he plays for the whole season would have an outstanding chance for leading wicket taker.
Worcester should never have gone down the year they did, they lost so much playing time with the pitch troubles, I think they are certainly strong enough to stay up. Ali was in great bowling form last season and if he can reproduce the same and Jones stay fit they will cause problems.
Sussex will find it hard without Mushtaq Ahmed and if Matt Prior keeps his England place will also be a loss, I do like Luke Wright and think he needs a big season.
I’ve had a small bet on Durham 4/1 because i think they have the strongest squad and when at home seem to get a result pitch prepared, but if Harmison was to miss much of the season with England would be weakening the team somewhat. It will be interesting to see how Blackwell gets on because he’s been use to the batting paradise of Taunton.
I hope Somerset can have another competitive season like the last, but unless they start making the Taunton wicket more bowler friendly then i think playing for survival will be theme.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
The Blackwell signing is an odd one. He’s not going to take many wickets, but perhaps they just want to add depth. Worth noting that their second XI also won their competition last year, so they are strong in reserve too.
I don’t see Somerset struggling as such this year, their batting is strong and there are at least five poorer teams in the division. They need to sign a quick bowler or a really top class spinner, Mendis perhaps? Not sure what kind of money they have down at Taunton.
I don’t know what kind of money we have down at Taunton either Andrew although at the end of every season I read ‘record profits’ I think Somerset are quite well off compared to most of the counties of similar size.
from what I’ve been reading in the local papers for the past few months, there will be no additions to the playing staff. Director of cricket(i love that title) Brian Rose is confident that the squad at Somerset is strong enough to compete for every competition. what he really means is we wont be spending any money on new players it will all go on ground developments.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Forgot to add this earlier, the club are putting alot of faith in 24 year old fast bowler Mark Turner who joined from Durham at the end of the 2006 season, his first class stats currently are 8 matches 15 wickets at a cost of 49.46 I’m not sure of his one day stats but from what i have seen he is very fast and aggressive but wayward which results in plenty of boundary’s being conceded and as a result his head drops very quickly.
He spent a month out in Florida with several other promising young pacemen as part of the ECB elite fast bowling development programme and recently spent two weeks at the England Academy working under the watchful eye of coaches Kevin Shine and Neil Killeen.
Hopefully the hard work will pay off and he can put in a challenge for the first team with Caddick, Willoughby, Jones and Trego competing for the fast bowling places.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
There seems to be something of a divide amongst the counties, with some choosing to go down the Kolpack route and others taking a chance on young talented players. Lancs and Yorks need their youngsters to come good this year and if this Turner is that quick, he is worth persevering with. Still, 24 isn’t that young in fast-bowling terms. He’ll need to ‘come to the party’ this season, that is, provided he is invited to the party, particularly if the oldies start to creak.
I still think a decent attacking spinner would make Somerset much more of a threat.
Any thoughts on the county championship division two Andrew? Kent look plenty short enough is there anything at a bigger price that could take them on?
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Apologies, Nathan, I’ve just seen your post. I haven’t really looked at Div Two, but I am in the middle of producing ratings for Test/ODI/T20 and County Championship. I will be having a bash at using them this summer, so I may apply them to Div Two first.
Evening chaps
I’ve finally managed to have a couple of cricket bets today, based on my new-fangled ratings. It remains to be seen how successful they are, but here we go, for what it’s worth.
New Zealand v India 2nd Test
Thrashed in the 1st Test, a paper-flimsy batting line-up and some ineffective seamers, surely only an idiot would bet on New Zealand to beat the best team in the world. Quite possibly. But nevertheless, I think 6-1 is too big for the Black Caps. I know there is a history of draws at Napier, but the sample size is very small and the pitch preparation this time has been less than ideal (fungal infections and all).I’ve also dabbled with Daniel Vettori to be top first innings bat for the home team. He was in the First Test and if, as often happens, the top order fall apart, our Dan could easily be the man to steady the ship once the shine is off the ball and the juice is out of the pitch. He’s available at a very generous 20-1.
South Africa v Australia First T20
My judgement tells me that Australia are the better team, with more bowling options, deeper batting and are 3/3 in T20s recently, including two wins over these very opponents last month. But my ratings tell me to back South Africa with home advantage. So I have.No joy for Danny and it was scenario B rather than scenario A as the New Zealand batting functioned well – though heavily dependent on Ryder and Taylor, as per usual. Pitch looks a belter as well, so have to hope that India have a bad session.
Now I know you’re all looking forward to the Not-The-Indian Premier League and it’s worth looking at some of the prices in the winners market. I don’t buy this idea that because it’s in South Africa, teams with a lot of South Africans have an advantage. These days, the top players have played all over the world and in this format, the state of the pitch rarely comes into it, so local knowledge counts for little.
Two teams stand out for me, but only one at the available odds. Last year’s winners Rajasthan were the best team in the tournament. Although they’ve lost Tanvir and Watson, their strength was their teamwork and the leadership of Warne. Tait and Tyron Henderson are not bad replacements and this time they will have the services of Morne Morkel and Justin Langer, both of whom were absent last time around. That there are currently four teams ahead of them in the betting is ridiculous and 8-1 (Beret 365) is far too high.
I also like the look of the Delhi Daredevils. Their glaring weakness last time was the lack of solidity in the middle order – if Gambhir and Sehwag failed, that was that. They’ve filled that gap with Collingwood and Shah, as well as adding some useful T20 performers in the Australians Warner and McDonald. But 9-2 doesn’t appeal at the moment. The Betfair market is still in its early stages so maybe they’ll be some better odds available in a few days.
Teams to avoid are the dreadful Bangalore Royal Challengers, KP notwithstanding and the Kings XI Punjab, weakened by the absences of key men Lee and Marsh and the baffling decline of Sreesanth.
I clean forgot Justin Langer was having a bash at the IPL, do you know when the competition is due to end Andrew? County Championship starts April 15th will Langers team be out by then and I don’t mean Somerset
Stan James have put odds up for top batsmen and bowlers for the county championship and not surprisingly Imran Tahir is favourite for the bowling.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Teams don’t go out of the IPL. The very idea! These magnates, Bollywood types and assorted tax dodgers want a good run for their cash and so everybody will play everybody else, quite possibly more than twice before we arrive, exhausted and numb at the semi-final stage. So Nathan, I’m afraid your gnarled little Aussie will be quite unavailable, possibly until the first strawberries ripen. He didn’t get to go to the ball last time, so he’ll be staying till the end this time, in his best party frock and glass slippers. Maybe the fairy godmother could fix it for Mr Caddick to go as his valet.
I’m not surprised the bookies have latched onto Tahir. How predictable. And how accurate. I may look up the odds on Kabir Ali ripping up Division One, assuming that England continue to overlook him.
Caddick is probably miffed to as why one of the tax dodgers hasn’t signed him up to open the bowling, big ears is in his prime, but I wouldn’t bet on him being leading County Championship wicket taker. I quite like Kabir Ali as well and thought his mate Simon Jones was good odds at 28’s but if I was to place a bet on him he would be bound to get injured.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
The Kiwi bet looks pretty good!
I’ve never really had a punt on cricket before, but this thread has inspired me to take an interest this summer. I play to a decent standard, but i’ve never really thought about having a wager.
Hopefully the two spinners will see the Kiwi’s home…
Welcome aboard, Blunkett. I think cricket is an excellent betting medium, nowhere near as competitive as horse racing. What level do you play at?
Some way to go still in the Napier Test, but we’ll see. India still have the batting to save the game.
Nathan, I guess the problem with Jones is a double one, that is if he isn’t fit, he won’t be top wicket taker and if he is fit, England will have him back all summer
Also good call on on the Aussie/SA 20/20 match, Andrew.
I agree that this is an excellent thread. What it has highlighted for me is the diverging prices available with assorted bookies. It astounds me how much value is on offer in nearly every cricket match because of these differing opinions.
Also not only is there a wide variation but i can’t believe how often the market gets it wrong. Take Englands 3rd ODI, where the WI’s were 11/10. I was expecting at most 4/5. Even as an ardent England fan i couldn’t let that go (though i’m contemplating handing my 3 lions in).As betting options go it seems to me that the cricket markets offer more value than most. Its just a case of taking advantage of this on a long term basis, which is easier said than done!
Good luck to all those brave enough to post bets and opinions on the subject, especially when pre-match.
I play Yorkshire Premier League up in t’north, but I played County 2’s for a few summers in 2004 then 2005. Washed up and passed it at 26 :oops:
I agree with the Simon Jones scenario. Probably the most naturally gifted quickie in England, however his knee will either fall off, or he’ll have Harmison’s place for the Ashes with a strong April and May.
Its difficult to find someone who’ll have a very strong season with bat and ball, but won’t get called up by England – The Pattinson Effect.
I’d be looking at Rob Key for leading run scorer if i can get a decent price – that is if I knew what a decentr price is in cricket betting terms.
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