November 5, 2011 at 11:11 #20143
Well it’s coming to that time of year again, Christmas is coming and my thoughts turn to my Christmas horse and will it win to pay for the Turkey or will it be the bowl of gruel again.
The starting price for this horse in its last 8 races has been 20/1, 33/1, 66/1, 40/1, 20/1, 20/1, 20/1 and 33/1.
The race in question is next Wednesday 9th November in the <b>4.00 Southwell</b> and the horse is <b>Punching</b> trained by Conor Dore.
It is very possible that the horse may turn out to be a turkey <!– s:shock: –><!– s:shock: –>November 8, 2011 at 17:01 #376753
is 6/1 joint second favouriteNovember 8, 2011 at 17:03 #376754BlackSamBellamyMember
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I backed it last time out. Don’t know if I fancy it tomorrow,but good luckNovember 8, 2011 at 23:34 #376825KenhParticipant
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He ran quite well over 5f ( all his wins have been over 6f except one over 7f) at Yarmouth last time. Finished clear of those on the nearside to run on well to finish 3rd. Has really good form at Southwell, seven of his ten wins have been there. His last six form figures read 900963 yet at Southwell his last six are 162112. He has also come down a few pounds since his last handicap win at Southwell.November 9, 2011 at 12:36 #376900
is now down to 4/1 fav, with the all weather season kicking off it is nice to see that the honest racing is backNovember 9, 2011 at 14:18 #376910robnorthParticipant
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Depends how you look at things really. If you look at Punching’s last six races at Southwell he is 162112, and as far as I can see he’s only ever been out of the first 4 once in 20 attempts. That race was on his only attempt over 7 furlongs as well.
The trainer’s taking advantage of the fact that his all-weather mark has dropped because he has run down the field at other all-weather courses. His last 7 wins have all been at Southwell.
(Sorry, Kenh, just noticed your post – you got there before me!)
Presuming that he’s much better suited by the surface at Southwell then it’s just taking advantage of the way handicap marks are awarded. Presuming he’s been raced on his merits there’s nothing wrong with that, and I’ve no reason to suspect otherwise. Indeed his performance at Yarmouth was reasonable for it’s level and he should cope with a slight rise in class given the change of surface. It took me no more than a quick glance to work out where his strengths lie. But then presumably the odds setters saw the same thing.
Of course he still has to do the job on the day, but if betting at Southwell on the sand, just ignore form from elsewhere.
RobNovember 9, 2011 at 14:21 #376911CoggyParticipant
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Good luck with it. Hope you were on early !November 9, 2011 at 16:02 #376920TuffersMember
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BOOM!November 9, 2011 at 16:02 #376921GodolphinArabianMember
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congratsNovember 9, 2011 at 16:03 #376922MatronParticipant
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That was a close one!
Turkey, for this Christmas then!
November 9, 2011 at 17:34 #376936AnonymousInactive
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Nice one, BB.November 9, 2011 at 18:00 #376945Venture to CognacModerator
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Well done broNovember 10, 2011 at 12:09 #377083BlackSamBellamyMember
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Runner up was done at 1.01,doesn’t get much more unlikely than that.
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