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Aragorn – agree absolutely about Well Chief. Newbury was the strangest race, what with Ashley Brook committing suicide, Foreman running no race and VPU unshipping. I also thought, turning for the cross fence, that Chief wasn’t travelling that well.
Newmill looks nailed on for the Champion (assuming he goes there) with VPU close up.
What’s George Best got to do with this:biggrin:
It depends on the conditions but if the wet weather continues ( more rain forecast on sunday ) then BJK has to be the horse to lay imo but I’ll be surprised if Jonjo runs him in testing ground again.
Fair Along is my banker can’t see that getting beat. Already run to mark good enough to win most Arkle’s without really being extended. Doesn’t look anything good enough to worry him.
Bismarck – Kauto Star.
My Bismark is BJK because I think there’s a stong possibility that he’s actually not as good as the hype
Will also be laying Denman at the price
Well Chief – now that’s the banker :biggrin:
Hi Trackside. Do you really believe Mac’s is as good as last year? I know the ground at Gowran was against him, but he was still easily brushed aside by a chaser. Mac’s was also pretty close to Hardy and Inca previously at Leopardstown and I have thought that Inca has looked laborious all season.
Of the three, I think Hardy still has most to offer, in that he’ll set the race up nicely for Detroit.
Agree with you about Kauto though.
But are you laying Kauto Star on the basis of ability/conditions or the course and distance? Do you think that kauto Star could be turned over on merit?
Quote: from FlatSeasonLover on 1:41 pm on Mar. 2, 2007[br]But are you laying Kauto Star on the basis of ability/conditions or the course and distance? Do you think that kauto Star could be turned over on merit?
What’s the difference?
Just think there are many question marks still over Kauto. I think the trip, in what is bound to be a truly run race, will be a real problem. It’s hard to believe that a dual winner of the Tingle Creek will have the requisite stamina. Comparisons might be drawn with Dessie, but the latter had already won a Whitbread so his stamine was never really going to be an issue.
3 miles round Haydock (or Kempton, or Newbury) is not the same as 3m 2.5 f at Cheltenham, as One Man showed.
Argument 1) The horse is the best horse in the race and will win barring incodent/accident.
Argument 2) There are other horses in the field that I believe are as good if not better than Kauto Star on this particular day. Even if the favourite stays and puts in a clear round of jumping it can still be beaten.
Surely no 2) is a better reason for laying a horse? (I have neither backed it or laid it btw)
I see what you mean but the 2 are intertwined. I think that KS won’t put in a perfect round of jumping (he’ll may well still stay up though) and I think that the better, more fluent jumpers (WoA or ED) will have their day. A horse’s ability to jump is a huge factor at Cheltenham and it may prove KS’s undoing..
David,
I’d contest your point there, I would say Kauto is just as fluent a jumper, he just clatters one every so often. His ability through the air is pretty prodigious when he’s concentrating. To say Kauto is a bad jumper is erroneous I think.
The best jumper in the field has to be the Listener, he literally flies his fences..
Kauto Star. For a horse that tends to give the odd fence a hefty clout, backing this at just under 2/1 Ante-Post seems crazy. I can’t see him being less on the day – in fact he may well be a better price, (particularly in-running after he’s made a complete horlicks of a fence.) <br>The name of the game is jumping. What odds would one offer about Kauto Star not making a single b*lls up? Then compare that with the 15/8 for him to win.
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