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I have spent some good time working on the champion hudle today and I have narrowed the race down to 2 possible winners. As far as I can see by far and away the likliest winner comes from the following 2 horses.
SUBLIMITY – Defending champion. Had a private race recently and destroyed some flat animals and hurdlers. Likely to be at peak on Tuesday. Scored an RPR of 127 before running to 170 and winning last year. Raced to 157 in his only public race this year, so although everyone is saying his race last time was too bad for him to be able to win, it was actually a markedly better run than his pre chelt 07 run. 8yo is a premium age for the winner to be. Carberry was absolutely laughing at the field last year and he could possibly be even better this year and I think this is a weaker race than last year. A 7 or 8yo has won 7 of the last 8 runnings of this race and Sublimitys profile appears head and shoulders above every other 7,8 and 9yo in the field. At 5/1 is must bet e/w ,material. You simply have to have this horse on your side.
Sublimity aside, the most likely winner if it is not Sublimity will come from a 6yo. Although no 6yo has won since Istabraq in 1998, 4 of the last 12 winners have been a 6yo and the winner almost certainly will be a 6yo if Sublimity doesent run to his best form. Katchit is too young and almost certainly wont win. Harchibald as a 9yo is an unlikely winner and is a bridle horse who cant be trusted at this level. Every single winner in the last 9 years had ran in a grade 1 hurdle before.
Sizing Europe can confidently be ruled out, he bunny hops his hurdles and cant run in a straight line that will find him out,8 of the last 10 winners had 4 runs (6 of last 10 winners had 4 prev runs in the season), Sizing Europe has only had 3 runs, which is a stat that can be easily laughed away but is a nice negative extra to hold against him. Yes 6 of the last 12 winners had ran in the AIG but that also means that 6 of the last 12 winners hadnt ran in the AIG. The trainer has had 11 runners in the last 2 weeks and all 11 runners were unplaced. Im totally against this horse and believe him to be overhyped by the racing media.
Osana has not previously ran in a grade 1 and has only had 2 runs this season. Although I believe this horse to have a very good chance and consider it the likliest winner were one of my 2 selections to amaze me and not win.
Catch me is the only other possible winner for me but he has no course form and this is a big negative for him.
This leaves me with only one horse who could possibly take Sublimitys crown.
AFSOUN – This is the one horse in the line up with the absolutely sparkling perfect profile of a Champion Hurdle winner. He is a course and distance winner, he won his last race, he has had 4 races this season and that is the perfect ammount of races for a winner to have had. Nicky Henderson won the champion hurdle 3 times in a row in 85, 86 and 87 with See You Then and althoug he has gone 20 Champion Hurdles without a winner since 1987 he has an outstanding chance of being the winning trainer 2 decades after his last win with Afsoun.
The winner quite simply has to come from either Sublimity (5/1) or Afsoun (28/1). Now when I said to lay Denman, I actually clearly stated that Denman hacking up was a distinct and very possible outcome. With this Champions Hurdle bet, I would not even consider the possibility that I could be wrong this time.
Advised bet:
E/W – SUBLIMITY @ 5/1
E/W – AFSOUN @ 28/1Seriously chaps, you simply have to get involved in this exact bet. You will be kicking yourselves after if you dont. Either the defending champion retains his crown or the horse with the perfect profile Afsoun will be crowned the new champion. I defy this combination of bet not to produce the winner and a profit.
No one in the world could possibly talk me out of this and I do not even consider the possibility that I could be wrong.
I need to correct a huge error.
Catch me – Does have cheltenham form, he did win last time and he has had 4 runs this season (the perfect ammount).
CATCH ME – Is definitely a contender.
I need to retract my statement and say that only 3 horses can possibly win.
SUBLIMITY
AFSOUN
CATCH METhe winner is guaranteed to be one of these 3 horses. I still favour Sublimity and Afsoun on form (Afsouns 3 1/4 length 3rd in the race behind sublimity last year when he was just 5yo was a huge performance). Catch me looks ideal also though and I can no longer leave this horse out.
One of these 3 horses wins, I think I will just ductch them all to win an equal ammount of money as I love to cheer the winner of the race home and backing all 3 to win an equal ammount can still result in a very nice payout and will guarantee I am on the winner.
I have to say I am with Fists and carvs with regards SE, I cant see any real fault with what hes done and he goes there as the one they all have to get past. The betting pre AIG for both the AIG and Champ Hurdle markets suggested the horse had come on bundles on anything he had done to date, and the horse more than lived up to the confidence, he’s a very good looking fav, but hes too short for me to back.
I also think sublimity is in with a good chance, I really like the horse and wheras I dont think he has had as good a prep as Id want, the way he looked in the pictures and the reports about him suggest he is possibly back to his best. Cant back him at his price though.
Think my two for the day will depend on the ground, I backed bobs pride ages ago at 40-1 (he’s now 50-1 lol), if the ground is still reading good on tuesday I’ll be on Bobs Pride again for another e/w at 50-1. I have a lot of respect for dermot weld and hes at his most dangerous when he travels with a very average looking horse to a decent looking race like this,. DW has stated that he holds BP in high regard and it is very interesting that he has been pulled out of the county hurdle where he looked to have a really good chance.
I will also back afsoun e/w at 25-1. I think hes a decent horse and he gets that extra bit of distance so should be suited to a fast pace if it turns out that way.
This Sizing Europe bunny hop talk is complete rubbish. A fairy tale invented by the bookmakers to maintain interest in an uncompetitive renewal.
Same story last year with Kauto Star.
Zoso,
If you don’t read the Racing Post (I don’t always either), surly you need a form book of some description. What do you use?I know at least one journo on the post that agrees with you Zoso, Matt Williams (Trading Post). But the thing is, it already has better form than anything else even with the extravigant jumping so what matters?
I can see it might matter if the ground is fast but that looks unlikely. Osana is a very quick jumper and will gain some ground. Have backed both ante post along with a few others.Value Is EverythingSUBLIMITY
AFSOUN
CATCH MEWinner comes from one of these 3 horses, even Matt Willuiams agreeing with me would not be enough to put me off. I would find any journalist agreeing with me slightly annoying but just one of those things that I have to deal with.
I use the RP online. I dont read any articles on line. Sizing Europe cant run in a straight line and bunny hops hurdles. This is not a bookmakers trick this is a fact. He has no grade 1 form and wont win, plain and simple. Sizing Europe probably wont even place and will be beaten before the last.
He has no grade 1 form and wont win, plain and simple. Sizing Europe probably wont even place and will be beaten before the last.
Well if you’re choosing to ignore the AIG as your post suggests (which is pretty much laughable in itself), you have every right to completely disregard SE at 9/4. Otherwise, to suggest that the winner simply must come from your selected three is reminiscent of a particularly ignorant and/or ill-informed bull in a china shop.
I completely disregard Sizing Europes chances and wouldnt be interested in him even at 100/1. The winner will without a question of doubt in my mind come from one of the three horses I stated.
Well if you’re choosing to ignore the AIG as your post suggests (which is pretty much laughable in itself),
I have corrected my mistake. That was laughable to not count the AIG as a grade 1 race when of course it is. The song remains the same though and Sizing Europe wont win. Winner is Afsoun, Sublimity or Catch Me, it really is as simple as that. Dont waste your money on any other horse.
Well if you’re choosing to ignore the AIG as your post suggests (which is pretty much laughable in itself),
I have corrected my mistake. That was laughable to not count the AIG as a grade 1 race when of course it is. The song remains the same though and Sizing Europe wont win. Winner is Afsoun, Sublimity or Catch Me, it really is as simple as that. Dont waste your money on any other horse.
Sublimity I can understand you fancying, no problem with that but Afsoun and Catch Me? Neither would win if they started now.
Zoso has his crystal ball out again.
Nobody knows who is going to win before the race.
Must be one of these three
.100/1 Sizing Europe.
I think some of your points Zoso are well made but why make these rediculous comments? They do not do you any good Zoso.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingI need to correct a huge error.
Catch me – Does have cheltenham form, he did win last time and he has had 4 runs this season (the perfect ammount).
CATCH ME – Is definitely a contender.
I need to retract my statement and say that only 3 horses can possibly win.
SUBLIMITY
AFSOUN
CATCH METhe winner is guaranteed to be one of these 3 horses. I still favour Sublimity and Afsoun on form (Afsouns 3 1/4 length 3rd in the race behind sublimity last year when he was just 5yo was a huge performance). Catch me looks ideal also though and I can no longer leave this horse out.
One of these 3 horses wins, I think I will just ductch them all to win an equal ammount of money as I love to cheer the winner of the race home and backing all 3 to win an equal ammount can still result in a very nice payout and will guarantee I am on the winner.
The great thing about racing is we are all entitled to our opinions, even if we picked up someone elses comments and made it our own
Bunny Hopping and 100/1 aside I see nothing wrong with your selections and are at this moment are as good as anyone elses. Sublimity himself, despite Ginge continously telling us the dogs were barking it and Hardy Eustace were’t fancied an inch outside their yards being 16/1 and 33/1 shots when they won.
Where Sublimity is concerned he has run so little it’s anyone’s guess how good he is. It all hinges round did Hardy Eustace and Brave Inca run to form or not. If they did chances are he will win the Champion Hurdle standing on his head. Personally the fact Hardy Estace took 4 seconds longer to cover the distance between the 2nd last and the winning post last year than he did when he won his race bugs me. He was definately under pressure from his jockey a lot sooner (4 out) than he was in previous years, if not from any of his opponents. Another slight concern has to be will he get the trip in a fast run race……….never looked as if he did behind Noland.
I had a little bet on Afsoun 2 months ago because I thought the price was huge plus the horse scares me. He’s the type that pops up when you least expect it very consistant and if a few run badly he would be in there like a shot. I suppose he could reverse places with Sublimity in a fast run race, certainly looked to be staying on better last year………again it’s how good is Sublimity wherever he finishes you would expect Afsoun to be close by.
Catch Me deserves his place in the field but he doesn’t look true Champion Hurdle material to me. I spotted SE the first time I ever saw him this fellow just doesn’t give me the same buzz as he did. The stable talk was all Cloph pre season and this guy is a second string sub. Cloph wasn’t good enough I can’t see him being either.
For me there are two chains of thought here. The old and the new.
In one camp you have Sublimity and Afsoun and the other camp you have SE Katchit Osana and it’s a case of chosing which camp your in.
In between we have Mr Lonely………Harchibald No Friends….he would travel with the best of any generation whether it be hardy Eusatace or Persian War he’s got one of the highest cruising speed I ever saw in a hurdler……unfortunately for him a Bridle Horse has never won a CH
Are the new crop better than the old crop is the question and we won’t know that until after the race? You just be thankful your not a bookmaker Zoso cos if you offered 10/1 SE you would be bowled over with requests at 100/1 you would be tampled to death
I still think you got caught up in the Bunny Hopping saga started by people who wouldn’t know one end of a horse from another and if SE gets beat it will be because he isn’t good enough not because he may spend 1 millionth of a second in the air longer than something like Katchit does.
Lay the horse if you think he wont win but lay him because you think he can’t jump????
you guys read something in a newspaper then come on here and repeat it because if it’s in the papers it must be true.
Yeah: we’re the brainwashed masses and you’re the only one who can see through ‘the matrix’.
Please: stop flattering yourself, and stop being a twat and accept that people can disagree with you for rational reasons which they have worked out for themselves.
Mate I don’t mind someone like NWRA or Zoso having a go at me I’ve had it since when I was the only kid on the street who said Clay would beat Liston but when someone like you chips in I find that extremely annoying.
You have contibuted absolutely damn all to this discussion…..If fact I have never seen you contibute anything remotely to do with the up and coming meeting or any horses involved……….why the hell you are here I have no idea………if you have nothing better to do with your time than have a go at me for making a perfectly good case for a perfectly good horse and pointing out the fact that Zoso’s bunny hopping if far from original as he would like everyone to believe I suggest you find a new hobby….if that makes me a twat then so be it at least I am contibuting something constructive to the debate…..you on the otherhand are boring poster if ever there was one……….now toddle off to google and copy and paste some more usless info and be a good boy.
Best post of the yearcompletely disregard Sizing Europes chances and wouldnt be interested in him even at 100/1.
That should be on a Value Betting thread
I think some of your points Zoso are well made but why make these rediculous comments? They do not do you any good Zoso.
Ginge
Oops I did it again. Oh my.
Sublimity – Defending champion, this years run was actually much stronger form than his run before he won the CH last year. He is the champ and he is the horse to beat.
Afsoun – To finish just over 3 lengths behind the champ as a lowly 5yo in this race last year, is rock solid form. BEat Straw Bear who was 100% last race, is in form. As a 6yo he can come of age in this race. This is a very exciting runner in this years race and I am delighted that absolutely no one is giving him a squeak this year. Twas the same last year with Sublimity, no chance they all told me. I was on the winner though.
Catch Me – Like Afsoun has the perfect profile of a Champion hurdle winner. The greatest jockey on board only strengthens confidence.
These 3 horses are unlikely to finish 1st, 2nd and 3rd but I could almost put my life on it that the winner will be one of these 3 horses. The champion hurdle is not a race I like to leave behind and thankfully I have found the winner once again. You can either choose to ridicule me and end up not having the winner of the great race, or you can get involved with these 3 horses and be on the winner like me.
Everyone who disagrees with me will be proven wrong. Sizing Europe will be comprehensively beaten and will be sent chasing after this.
Zoso,
I’ll give you one thing, you’re certainly not lacking in confidence!!! Good luck!! The CH is not a race i’m going to get heavily involved in.
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