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Tough race but always worth taking an early plunge on something that either has decent course form, enjoys large fields or both!
I have taken two that I know will deffo get in and love big fields and both have excellent course form:
EW and main bet is NICEOFYOUTOTELLME at 25s and second is a win only bet on last years winner EDUCATE.
Comments and thoughts please
I think there’s a huge race in John Smith’s Cup runner-up,
Zain Eagle
.
He smashed recent Rose Of Lancaster winner, Amralah, last year but has been rather inconsistent since. He’s a lightly raced sort, open to plenty of improvement and looks certain to enjoy the stiff nine furlongs at HQ. Connections preferred tactics this term suggest the draw could be crucial to his chances.
I was quite tempted by an ew double on the Cowell-trained duo, Goldream (Ayr Gold Cup) and Zain Eagle (Cambridgeshire)
I think John Gosden’s G M Hopkins is a fascinating contender. He was entered in the Coventry Stakes last season and made an eye-catching debut behind Richard Hannon’s Championship, finishing really well after being green and then doing all his work late on. Championship was well fancied for the Coventry after that and it seemed G M Hopkins would be a shoo-in for a maiden race next time out.
He headed to Newmarket for a maiden race next time and went off 7/4 favourite. He never showed up that day, running as if something were amiss and he never raced again last year.
G M Hopkins, named after a poet, made his re-appearance this April in a Nottingham maiden where he recorded a promising 2l success in a mile race on soft ground in which Luca Cumani’s Roseburg went off favourite and finished third. Roseburg won his next three starts before looking like the Handicapper may have his measure now on 102.
For some reason we didn’t see G M Hopkins again until September, where he went off at a whopping looking 8/1 in a Sandown handicap over a mile. To me he looked a good bet based on Roseburg’s exploits and running off a mark of 87. He won by three parts of a length. While the form of that race looked nothing special, he was entitled to need that race and he is a son of Dubawi who is unexposed and surely potentially better than his current rating of 91. The negative is the two long breaks he has had in his career and I’d like to know more about the history behind that. To me he looks like the tests of a Cambridgeshire would suit him and he’s won on soft as well.
Bookies seem unsure what to make of his chances as his odds vary from 12/1 up to 20/1. John Gosden has won the race a few times and this horse has gone under the radar in a big way heading here.
Interesting.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I heard that GM Hopkins did himself an injury when 12th of 15 behind Jallota (well-backed) on his second two-year-old start.
Gosden said the horse has also suffered from sore shins at various points in the last two years – a bit of a trademark of his damsire Lomitas. I like him, but would worry about such a fragile horse managing two starts within a month or so. Still, owner Robin Geffen doesn’t have many duds.
GM Hopkins needs loads to come out – suggest you wait a while before backing him! With O’Meara in top form Hit the Jackpot could have been laid out for this
I have only gone back 15 years but have found 2 trends that might help us find the winner…
1). All 15 previous winners were aged 3yo-6yo.
2). All 15 previous winners had not won a race with a higher official rating.Supaseus had an OR of 100 when winning in 2009, the same as when winning the Wolferton (Listed) Handicap a year before at Ascot but the other 14 had recorded their best win off a lower OR.
If we take things a little bit further 11 of the previous 15 winners had a best win in the range of 5lbs-9lbs lower than the OR they raced off and won (this race). For example, in 2012 Bronze Angel won with a rating of 95 and his previous best win was off a mark of 87, i.e. 8lbs lower. There are 9 horses in at the 5 day decs stage (of 96 entries) that follow all 3 of the above trends…
Gabrial´s Kaka
Queensberry Rules
Sea Shanty
Velox
Soviet Rock
Niceofyoutotellme
Ingleby Angel
Genius Boy
BasemGood luck
Usually like half the field for this, but happy to stick with my early fancy,
Gabrials Kaka
, who’s still available at 25’s. Maybe have a go on his stablemate
Spirit Of The Law
@ 40’s as well.
Few more way down the bottom I could fancy too, but highly unlikely they’ll get in.
GM Hopkins needs loads to come out – suggest you wait a while before backing him! With O’Meara in top form Hit the Jackpot could have been laid out for this
I caught a look at the weights yesterday and I don’t think he’s got a cat in hell’s chance of getting in. Thanks for the tip though, the forum should be about helping each other out.
At this rate the horses will need to be bordering on group company to get in the big handicaps. Rated 91 and a million ahead of you in the weights!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Ante post fav Air Pilot didn’t get in. In a pure Cavalry charge John Gosden’s Cornrow looks punting suicide at 6/1 and I’ll leave him to the lemmings to follow over the cliff.
I’ll stick a few quid on Tenor each-way. I can’t say he’s well handicapped but he’s progressed from a 60’s rated animal to over 100 now, he’s a winner seven times and looks a steady enough horse. More importantly he’s 40/1 and that looks big, with some firms only 16/1.
Tenor (each-way) 40/1 William Hill.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Maybe some clues with the draw…
From the last 15 runnings…
4 winners came from stalls 2-4
6 winners came from stalls 19-25That’s 10 of the last 15
Draw…
2). Fort Bastion
3). Educate**
4). Spa’s Dancer
19). God Willing
20). Pacific Heights
21). Genius Boy*
22). Chancery
23). Tres Coronas
24). Ingelby Angel*
25). Tigers Tale* these two also follow the trends I identified in my previous post
** no top rated horse has won in the last 15 runnings.I’m going each way on Ingleby Angel with a smaller each way on Genius Boy.
Good luck with your bets !!
GM Hopkins needs loads to come out – suggest you wait a while before backing him! With O’Meara in top form Hit the Jackpot could have been laid out for this
GM Hopkins runs in the "Silver Cambridgeshire" today. Just for a change Timeform tip up the William Haggas trained horse for the race, the favourite, Mange Tout.
I’ll stick with my gut (what a gut it is) and put some money on GM Hopkins at 13/2
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Pure class from your boy there, Steve. It must be time to reward your gut with something tasty!
GM Hopkins needs loads to come out – suggest you wait a while before backing him! With O’Meara in top form Hit the Jackpot could have been laid out for this
GM Hopkins runs in the "Silver Cambridgeshire" today. Just for a change Timeform tip up the William Haggas trained horse for the race, the favourite, Mange Tout.
I’ll stick with my gut (what a gut it is) and put some money on GM Hopkins at 13/2
Nice one !!
I hope you enjoy the spoils
W Hills are doing first 7 places,,,and I still can’t decide what to back. Queesnsberry Rules, Niceofyoutotellme can’t be overlooked and I would have backed Chancery at a huge price, but he isn’t. Whatever happened to 66/1 shots in these races
?Thanks everyone, it’s nice when a plan works out.
Looking at the "big one" it seems that a good few of those fancied have high draws and the action may take place on that side.
Even though I like Cornrow as a prospect I can’t back him in a field this size at the odds. Coral only go 5/1 and I won’t take less than 16/1 in this melee.
Drawn right next door to the fav is stablemate Maverick Wave and he seems friendless in comparison. Buick has rejected him but it wouldn’t be the first time he’s got it wrong. A couple of small race wins saw the Elusive Quality colt go off fav for a four runner handicap at Newmarket, where he was run down late on and finished second. The ground was soft that day and probably didn’t help. On his next start he ran fourth, with two of today’s runners Bronze Angel and Velox in front of him. Maverick Wave was deemed to have potential that day, as he was a warm favourite at 13/8, so it seems odd that Velox is almost a third of the odds of the Gosden horse today. Maverick Wave tends to race prominently and I just have a concern whether he is going to be used to set the race up for his more fancied stablemate. 25/1 is a big price for a horse rated just 1lb behind the fav and lining up in the stall next door with a similar profile.
Maverick Wave each-way 25/1 and a cheeky reverse Gosden forecast bet for the crack!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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