- This topic has 81 replies, 25 voices, and was last updated 18 years ago by
.
- Posts
The drop in performance occurs irrespective of conditions, Charlie, as the problem is purely biological.
I would suggest a horse is just as likely to underperform on fast ground as they are on soft, though the degree of ‘underachievement’ may be more marked in case of the latter.
Charlie
Like the dog with the bone this is not something I’d let go lightly. The following figures are interesting…..
Using Adrian Massey’s database Flat Racing 2000-2007, isolated all horses which had 1 race within the last 90 days. To find the theoretical bounce horses I’ve reduced the list to those who finished 1st or 2nd last time, on the basis they produced a big performance, crude admittedly but I suspect as good a guide as any.
Ran within last 14 days – Win 21.8% Return 87.5%
Ran 15-31 days ago – Win 20.5% Return 85.1%
Ran 31-60 days ago – Win 18.1% Return 82.8%
Ran 61-90 days ago – Win 15.3% Return 85.4%Just to isolate a group of even more recent ‘break returners’.
Ran within the last 5 days – Win 22.6% Return 75.3%
Not part of the study perhaps but take the females out of the last group and it’s Win 24.3% Return 84.6% (Fillies and mares – 12/62 Win 18.5% Return 53.4%)
The percentage win suggests there’s no general effect from a recent big run. In fact the percentage goes up slightly. It might be worth investigating race comments showing a lot of effort, ‘all out’ for example, but I’m not sure that woudl show much difference.
It appears that fillies under such circumstances are very much overbet. With a smaller percentage win rate maybe a recent run does have more effect on them?
Of horses returning within 14 days
Males Win 23.2 Return 92.2%
Females Win 19.2 Return 78.4%There may be a case for sticking to males if horses have run recently.
Rob
LGR
I can show you evidence that Dylan Thomas has failed to produce his best on Soft and heavy ground
We need evidence to back up what your saying fella, can you produce this?? if not, then i’m afraid what your saying is meaningless to me
I’m tying my best, but I really can’t see what you’re getting at, Charlie.
The so called ‘bounce factor’ is an anatomical issue, and the effects will only be exacerbated by testing ground. If a horse happens to dislike the ground they’re running on after their reappearance, then they will obviously run well below form.
Go to your local gym and ask any of the staff whether you’re likely to perform better physically in two successive races if you’ve been (a) training continually for 6 months, or (b) if you’ve been sat on your backside for the same period.
My money says they go with scenario (a), unless of course you’re Rik Waller in which case they’ll just laugh at you.
Christ you’re good at trying my patience, Charlie.
Rob, do those figures relate to horses who have returned from a layoff within the periods specified and have run again relatively quickly, or just to those who have posted ‘big runs’ and been seen again soon after?
LGR
The figures refer to horses which have
1. Run once within the last 90 days
2. Finished 1st or 2nd on that last run.I’ve covered the whole range of days since last run to give some sort of comparison across a range of horses. Theoretically the bounce horses we are looking for would be those which race more recently, say within 14 days.
The figures suggest that females returning for a quick second run after a break do not perform as well as males, and are overbet in comparison. Whether or not that’s ‘bounce’ is a moot point, but it can be a useful factor to some bettors.
Rob
I think this theory needs to be studied over a decent period and such a study should be conducted in either Trends, Systems or Daily Plays
First you need to define "bounce" as Robert99 pointed out at the beginning before this can take place
I think this theory needs to be studied over a decent period and such a study should be conducted in either Trends, Systems or Daily Plays
First you need to define "bounce" as Robert99 pointed out at the beginning before this can take place
Charlie I run a laying service and have done so for 3 years, so have all my bets on an excel sheet. In the month of April and May my profits go through the roof. I will leave you to work out why that is.
Would you be able to get figures for horses who have not run for say 6 months, but have then run again within 14, 28 and 60 days, rob?
LGR
You would have to use a database with a wider range of filters. I haven’t got a computer form book, so Adrian Massey’s database is handy but I’m limited to the parameters he sets.The easiest one to use in this case was ‘Runs within 90 days’. The next filter up is ‘Runs within last 12 months’.
I wonder if anyone who uses Raceform Interactive or some such could give figures for differing lay-offs?
Rob
Zoso
No offence, but your P/L means nothing and proves nothing, whereas a proper study of the phenom that is called "bounce " would
From http://www.thesheets.com/
Bouncing has become a common term in the handicappers vocabulary. Ragozin invented the term when he became aware of this phenomenon over thirty years ago. Many profitable Sheet-plays are based on throwing out a short-priced favorite that figures to bounce.
Simply put, a bounce is a reaction to a previous effort. When a horse usually runs 20’s or mid-teens and suddenly runs a ten, it is likely to bounce. Remember horses are athletes — when they overextend themselves they are likely to react to the physical toll that this overexertion took on them.
There are numerous reasons why a horse may make a big move forward. The horse might be new to lasix, have a new trainer, be racing on a new surface, be wearing new equipment, getting over physical problems, or might just be maturing and developing. The reason for the big forward move will have an impact on the degree with which you can expect the horse to bounce. Each case must be considered individually, though there are some general guidelines on how severe a reaction might be expected. The chart below will help you in accessing a horses’ chance of bouncing after a strong effort.
More likely to bounce ( left) Less likely to bounce (right) Comments
Sprinters – Routers
Router’s lines are more even. Trainers tend to put unsound, “ouchy”, bouncy horses in sprints.
Dirt – Turf
Grass is a kinder surface. Many horses can run a long string of solid races on the turf.
Big move 1-3 point move
The greater the forward move, the more likely the chance of a negative physical reaction.
Autumn Spring Condition plays a greater role later in the season. After a long hard campaign many horses might be more likely to bounce. Horse are more likely to explode with a series of new top efforts in the spring/summer.
Females – Males
Females react more to big efforts. However, classy fillies/mares tend to be nearly as consistent as males.
Short rest Time off
More rest allows a horse more time to recover
Claimers – Stakes horses
Classy horses generally get better handling, more rest, and are more able to withstand strong efforts.
I’m sure most could find plenty of horses to take on using the guidelines above . Would they describe it as “bounced” though or would they give some valid reasoning (like reet hard did earlier) for the defeats of such horses
Now we are entering into the realms of the interpretation of the term ‘bounce’, and when debates on TRF reach such a stage we generally find ourselves launching into a value-esque perception argument.
As I have always understood the term, a horse is deemed to have ‘bounced’ when running poorly on it’s second start after reappearing from a layoff, injury-induced or otherwise. If we extend the ‘rules’ of this supposed phenomenon to cover all efforts following a peak performance, whenever it may occur, then we make it all the more difficult to define completely and use effectively as a betting tool.
LGR
There are a few theories that are termed "bounce"
Quinns lay off, hard race and back within 5 weeks
Browns OXO pattern
Beyers 3 and out
However, it is Razogin who first coined the phrase "bounce" i believe and it seems to me what he meant by it is probably being misused today
My understanding of the term "bounce" is as last explained by LetsGetRacing. As expected not a shred of useful evidence has been put forward. Robnorth’s Adrian Massey stats are about the interval between coming 1st or 2nd and the degree of success in the next race, and are nothing to do with return after a long lay-off. The anecdotes about muscles and fitness are hardly relevant either.
The only way that the theory can be tested is by statistical analysis of the running of all horses that return from a long layoff. It will be a hard slog for anyone to analyse sufficient information to convince anyone, one way or the other.
For what it is worth I have an interest in two horses that argueably could be regarded as contenders. Something (runs today in Dubai) was off 13 months before beaten 1/2 length in a listed race at Windsor on 4th June 2007. 19 days later he came an excellent 4th in the Wokingham. Pinpoint has twice had lengthy winter breaks the last of 6 months, after which he won the Newbury Spring Cup first time out, followed 15 days later by an awesome short head defeat off 106 in a Heritage handicap. No bounce in either case.
Surely how well the horse does in the second race depends on how it is trained. If it is properly prepared for the first race, and given adequate time to recover there is no problem. Where is the bounce?
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.