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I thought it only right I rename this race as it has become a bit of a standing dish for the great horse.
What I’d like to know is what happened to the 1/3 and 1/4 ante post prices this season.
You could barely back him last season until Grand Crus came on the scene but this time you can get almost even money with nothing in the wings even likely to ge Big Bucks off the bridle come March.
Oscar Whisky is a cracking horse fast enough to take on the best at 2 miles and a dab hand at 2m4f but 3 miles round Cheltenham?
Looking back on his career Nicky chose to send him for the 2 mile Supreme Hurdle where he thought his best chance lay at the Festival.
He’s won 7 times the first of which was a 1m6f NH flat race where speed is the name of the game. 4 of his wins over hurdle came at 2 miles including the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos las.
His best run was probably in the Champion Hurdle again the emphasis is more on speed than stamina and win came at Aintree the sharpest course in the country over 2m4f, when he was flat out to beat Thousand Stars.
Stepped up to 2m5f for the first time again his high cruising speed wasn’t so much in evidence and ran out when he was kicked into action and flat to the boards when falling at the last against Overturn.
Everything about him says he will not stay 3 miles especially round Cheltenham. Not even sure Nicky will go there after Ascot, time will tell.
You then come to Thousand Stars who just won a Grade 1 in Ireland over 2 miles. I can’t see Wullie Mullins chasing Big Bucks as long as there’s the remote chance something might Happen to Hurricane Fly. Better to finish 2nd in the Champion Hurdle than gambling you might be able to get 2nd in the World Hurdle.
That leaves what???
This looks to me like it could be Big Buck’s easiest World Hurdle yet as the two main challengers have better options and most likely won’t turn up.
If I am correct what price should he be 1/5 1/6 1/10??
I’ve got him in every ante post perm/trebles/accas etc.
There is no way he loses, unless he doesn’t turn up mind.
Agreed as I too have him in many trebles and 4 fold ante post bets with Quevaga, Peddlers Cross, Sizing Europe and Fingal Bay.
However, let’s get the lad to the races fit and sound first
Gone Finians Rainbow/Big Zeb with Sprinter Sacre/Peddlers Cross in The Arkle and Grands Crus/Bobs Worth in the RSA with the great horse.
Cheeky treles, not greedy, i’ll take just two winners from the other six haha!
I thought it only right I rename this race as it has become a bit of a standing dish for the great horse.
What I’d like to know is what happened to the 1/3 and 1/4 ante post prices this season.
You could barely back him last season until Grand Crus came on the scene but this time you can get almost even money with nothing in the wings even likely to ge Big Bucks off the bridle come March.
Oscar Whisky is a cracking horse fast enough to take on the best at 2 miles and a dab hand at 2m4f but 3 miles round Cheltenham?
Looking back on his career Nicky chose to send him for the 2 mile Supreme Hurdle where he thought his best chance lay at the Festival.
He’s won 7 times the first of which was a 1m6f NH flat race where speed is the name of the game. 4 of his wins over hurdle came at 2 miles including the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos las.
His best run was probably in the Champion Hurdle again the emphasis is more on speed than stamina and win came at Aintree the sharpest course in the country over 2m4f, when he was flat out to beat Thousand Stars.
Stepped up to 2m5f for the first time again his high cruising speed wasn’t so much in evidence and ran out when he was kicked into action and flat to the boards when falling at the last against Overturn.
Everything about him says he will not stay 3 miles especially round Cheltenham. Not even sure Nicky will go there after Ascot, time will tell.
You then come to Thousand Stars who just won a Grade 1 in Ireland over 2 miles. I can’t see Wullie Mullins chasing Big Bucks as long as there’s the remote chance something might Happen to Hurricane Fly. Better to finish 2nd in the Champion Hurdle than gambling you might be able to get 2nd in the World Hurdle.
That leaves what???
This looks to me like it could be Big Buck’s easiest World Hurdle yet as the two main challengers have better options and most likely won’t turn up.
If I am correct what price should he be 1/5 1/6 1/10??
Lots of Oscar’s stay three miles, and he’s out of a Phardante mare, another source of stamina. 20f might be his optimum, but i think he’ll give Big Bucks at least a scare over three miles. He’ll be able to use his turn of foot over a sedate pace. I think he’ll be better over three than Punchestowns is.
I posted on the Long Walk page about Dynaste the other day. I’m not being funny, but I’m shocked(but also pleasantly surprised!) about how much he went out after Saturday.
When I posted, I blamed poor Connor O’Farrell, but the resounding defeat clearly wasn’t his fault. Dynaste was obviously the second best horse in the race and went toe to toe with the mighty Big Buck’s until about 2 furlongs out. Connor set the pace trying to beat BB the only way he thought(and was told) he could, which he found out later, just could not happen.
However, if this horse runs its own race, not trying to beat the unbeatable, he is clearly the second best in the 3 mile division right now. That is, unless Thousand Stars shows up. For me, Oscar Whisky just won’t do at this trip, and would be much better either waiting for Aintree or a fictional 2 mile 4 furlong grade 1 at the festival.
Dynaste is now(for some reason) 25/1, and will probably win the Cleeve Hurdle next year. Now is the chance to get on each way!
Oscar remains 8/1 with Hills after his win today. Nicky has confirmed he is going for this race after a spin in Wales. Good value in my view e/w. BB might not turn up due to injury (10% chance) and Thousand Stars might go for the Champion Hurdle, especially if HF is not right.
I reckon on the day it will be something like BB 1/3 Oscar 4/1 and a few rags.
When you think about it why would Oscars’ have anymore chance of beating Big Buck’s than he had of beating Hurricane Fly?
He’s not the type who is likely to improve massively by stepping him up in trip. He’s a lovely horse to watch and travels like a dream but he’s just that few pounds below the best. And we don’t even know if he’ll get the trip.
Big Buck’s would have to run below par for him to win and there hasn’t even been a hint that he might do that.
I’d rather risk the kitchen sink than lose the faucet on a horse who has an almost impossible task ahead of him.
Hurdy, I agree Oscar’s chances of winning either the CH or beating BB are not great. However, I think it’s pretty certain he will go for the longer distance, for four reasons:
1. Nicky H and B Geraghty are both on the record as saying he is going for the stayers’ race.
2. Nicky has 3 strong contenders for the CH without Oscar.
3. He seems to get 2.5 miles quite easily as we saw yesterday, so 3 miles is not a big ask.
4. He is not quite fast enough to win the CH as we saw last year, but he could win the stayers’ race if BB has an off day.So it’s difficult to see him out of the frame. So 8/1 e/w is good value. Even 5/1 NRNB with Ladbrokes is not bad.
As a related matter I am not totally convinced by BB given:
1. There is still time for him to have a training setback, get injured or disappoint in his next race.
2. He is known to idle in races and is also difficult to train.
3. Grands Crus came close to beating him a couple of times.
4. If both Thousand Stars and Oscar run against him I doubt if he will start much lower than 4/7 so not a lot of point getting involved now antepost at 4/7 although the 4/7 NRNB looks ok.I think it’s going to be an interesting race if Oscar Whisky goes for the World Hurdle.
You have to say well done too to Dai Walters, who seemingly wants to take on Big Bucks. Obviously when you have a horse like Big Bucks, it can often make people swerve races in which you would oppose him, but fair play to Dai Walters who wants to have a go at Big Bucks.
Oscar Whisky is fast over his hurdles which is good, and at a fast pace, he can jump them and meet them well, so keeps his momentum going.
The way he won yesterday at Cheltenham was impressive, and i think it would make for a very interesting race if he were to go for the World Hurdle, and i hope connections enter him for the race and let him take his chance.
Last year PP ran a concession where if your horse finished second to BB you got your money back. I steamed into Grands Crus and didn’t lose a penny. Hopefully they’ll do the same this year.
I think Oscar is a massive each way bet to nothing against Big Bucks. I managed to get 10/1 in a race where I think there are only two class horses in the race. Big Bucks is a massive certainty if turning up in the same form as any of his previous races. But if, and I know it’s a big if, Oscar Whisky gets the three miles well, he will be the classiest horse Big Bucks has been up against over hurdles. If he does get the three miles, he will be cantering all over Big Bucks when he hits his traditional "flat spot", and with his speed he could well give the mighty horse a big fright. Anyway, on at 10/1 each way, I’m happy to take my chance and find out. Especially as connections have said this race is now his firm target.
I think BB is the real deal….far less convinced by Grand Crus last year however so I do think the champ could end up with several stronger opponents this year. Alot depends on the development and plans of Oscar Whiskey, Oscars well, Thousand Stars and So Young.
All of which could be really dangerous. My problem with Hendersons horse is whether he was idling or was being caught by thousand stars at Aintree last year???
SHL
I am waiting for the without Big Bucks market to take place as i have a horse who I am sure will be ridden for a place and could quite easily snatch 2nd and steal the coffers.
Hailing from the same yard as Bucks, Five Dreams is only a handicapper but they regularly place in this event and he has been ridden to finish 2nd last twice to Big Bucks and the place money in the Stayers is worth a lot more than the majority of handicaps!!
I think BB is the real deal….far less convinced by Grand Crus last year however so I do think the champ could end up with several stronger opponents this year. Alot depends on the development and plans of Oscar Whiskey, Oscars well, Thousand Stars and So Young.
All of which could be really dangerous. My problem with Hendersons horse is whether he was idling or was being caught by thousand stars at Aintree last year???
I like Thousand Stars a lot and actually think he would represent more of a danger to Big Bucks than Oscar Whiskey. Until I see him run over 3M at Cheltenham I will remain unconvinced that is what Oscar Whiskey either wants or needs.
The trouble I am having with watching that exact Aintree race is that Katie really gets stuck into Thousand Stars with the whip. Oscar definitly travels better and I wonder what effect the whip rules will have.
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